With only four points from nine games, Florence is experiencing the most serious crisis in its recent history, while its upcoming opponent Lecce will travel to the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Sunday with a little more confidence. For coach Stefano Pioli, this basement battle could be a matter of life and death, with his team still stuck in 19th place without a win. The recent 3-0 defeat at Inter revealed serious defensive problems: after an even first half, the defense completely fell apart in the second half, with defender Viti receiving a red card and now suspended. With 15 goals conceded, the Tuscan side shares the league’s weakest defense with Udinese. Lecce ended their run of three unbeaten games with a 1-0 defeat to Napoli, although Di Francesco’s team had good chances but lacked efficiency and missed a penalty. However, the head-to-head record clearly favors Florence: Lecce have failed to win any of their last five encounters, conceding a total of 14 goals, including a crushing 6-0 defeat last season.
- Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
- Date and time: November 2, 2025, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 10)
Despite nine games without a win, a home win for Fiorentina (odds ~1.6) seems plausible, especially as the pressure on coach Pioli could trigger a defiant reaction. Lecce has only won one of its last five games and looks vulnerable away from home, which is why the betting market rates the Viola as favorites. Betting on over 2.5 goals makes particular sense given Fiorentina’s weak defense: all of the Viola’s last five games have had at least three goals, and the defense has conceded in eight consecutive games. The absence of key defensive players such as the suspended Viti and the injured Gosens further weakens the back line. Statistically interesting is also the bet on over 1.5 goals in the second half (odds ~2.4), as around 80% of Fiorentina’s recent games have seen at least two goals in total after the break. The expected desperation and more open play after the break significantly increase the likelihood of late goals.
Florence Form & Record Check
After nine matchdays, Fiorentina are in 19th place in Serie A with four points, just ahead of Genoa. Their record is sobering: no wins, four draws, five defeats. In the 3-0 defeat at Inter, the team completely collapsed in the second half, with Calhanoglu scoring twice, Sucic in between, and the third goal coming from a penalty after Viti’s red card. Previously, they had drawn 2-2 with Bologna after being 2-0 down, with Gudmundsson and Kean equalizing from the penalty spot. Defeats against AS Roma (1-2) and Milan (1-2) complete the poor picture, with only the 3-0 win at Rapid Vienna in the Conference League providing some bright spots. The team scores regularly, finding the net in four of their last five games, but the defense is extremely vulnerable. All five of their most recent matches have ended with over 2.5 goals, with many goals coming in the second half, suggesting fitness or concentration problems after the break. In terms of personnel, the absences of Gosens (thigh problems) and Lamptey (cruciate ligament rupture) are causing lasting problems for the full-back options, while Mattia Viti is currently suspended. Pioli has to improvise with a weakened defense, which is particularly thin on the wings.
Coach Stefano Pioli is likely to field his usual 3-4-2-1 system. Robin Gosens is missing from the defense due to thigh problems, and Tariq Lamptey is also unavailable after tearing his cruciate ligament. Fabiano Parisi could start on the left side of the back three, with Dodô expected to play on the right. Mattia Viti could theoretically be an option again despite his recent suspension, but Pioli is likely to prefer a back three of Comuzzo, Marí, and Ranieri. Sohm and Mandragora are likely to start in central midfield. In attack, Guðmundsson and Kouamé are likely to provide creative impetus behind lone striker Kean.
Lecce Form & Record Check
US Lecce are in 16th place after nine matchdays with six points, just one point ahead of Pisa and one point behind Parma. The last two games ended goalless from their point of view: in the 0-1 defeat to Napoli, Anguissa scored with a header, while Camarda missed a penalty, and in the 2-3 defeat in Udine, Berisha scored from a free kick and N’Dri in injury time, before Buksa’s counterattack in the 89th minute sealed the deal. In the last five league games, they have scored only five goals and conceded eight, which shows that the offense lacks punch and the team lacks composure in decisive moments. This ended their previous run of three games without defeat, with an away win in Parma and draws against Bologna and Sassuolo. Injury problems are weighing heavily on the defense: Jean and Pérez are out, Marchwinski is injured, which limits Di Francesco’s tactical options and forces him to make changes.
Coach Di Francesco is expected to return to a 4-3-3 system after the late defeat in Udine. Young loanee Camarda could take on the central role in attack, with Pierotti and Banda likely to occupy the wide positions. Coulibaly, Ramadani, and Berisha are expected to form the midfield trio, with Berisha in good form recently, scoring from a free kick against Udinese. Gabriel and Gaspar are likely to form the central defensive duo, with Jean and Pérez out injured. Marchwinski is also unavailable due to fitness issues. Falcone is expected to start in goal.
Florence – Lecce Head-to-head & statistics
The last five meetings between Florence and Lecce clearly favor Florence: three wins for Florence, one win for Lecce, and one draw. Florence scored at least once in all five games, while Lecce conceded at least one goal in each game. Particularly noteworthy was Florence’s 6-0 win in October 2024, while Lecce celebrated its only win in this series in February 2024 with a 3-2 home victory. The most recent meeting in February 2025 ended 1-0 in favor of Florence. In four of the five encounters, Florence was already leading at halftime, with Lecce only ahead once at the break. This 80 percent halftime lead rate shows that Florence often steers the games in the desired direction early on.
