Florence is deep in the relegation battle with 9 points and a five-point gap to safety. The disastrous start to the season has put coach Paolo Vanoli under massive pressure, while Fabio Paratici is preparing his arrival and pushing ahead with the transfer of Solomon. History also favors the hosts, as Cremonese are still waiting for their first win at the Franchi. In 2023, the two sides played out a goalless 0-0 draw in the Coppa Italia semi-final, after Florence had previously won 2-0 in Cremona. In sporting terms, however, the Tuscans arrive with only one league win from seventeen games and a recent 1-0 defeat in Parma, while Davide Nicola’s team, in 12th place in the middle of the table, is mixing encouraging phases with setbacks such as the defeat against Napoli.
- Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
- Date and time: January 4, 2026, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 18)
However, the relegation battle and the imminent signing of Solomon could give the team an extra boost that is not yet fully reflected in the price, while Cremonese have never won at the Franchi and regularly concede goals away from home. Logic therefore suggests a cautious start followed by a home win, which supports the selection Under 1.5 goals in the first half and Both teams to score: No.
Florence Form & Record Check
Fiorentina, or AC Florence, started 2026 anchored at the bottom of the Serie A table with nine points, two behind Pisa and five behind Genoa in 17th place. Only one win in seventeen league games paints a bleak picture, with higher expectations from the preseason turning into a fight for survival. The coach and officials speak openly about fear and tension, which are hampering performances, especially at the Franchi. In league play, the recent trend has been brutal, with four defeats in the last five games. The 5-1 win against Udinese at the Franchi, in which goalkeeper Maduka Okoye was sent off, briefly seemed like a turning point, but this did not materialize. At home, they followed this with a 2-1 win against Verona, and in Parma, a narrow 1-0 defeat against a direct rival underlined the vulnerability of this team. A similar pattern can be seen in Europe, where they defeated Dynamo Kyiv 2-1 at home in the Conference League, but then slipped to a 1-0 defeat in Lausanne. Overall, they have two wins and three defeats in their last five games in all competitions, without a single draw. The first halves are usually cautious, yet they have conceded goals in each of these games, each time after the break, suggesting fragile game management. Personnel problems exacerbate the picture, with Pablo Marí and Lamptey still out in defense and Fazzini and Sabiri unavailable in midfield, limiting Paolo Vanoli’s rotation options, while Ranieri’s return from suspension should bring some balance at the back. Kean was excused for family reasons and missed training. The club insists he should be ready to play, but his fitness remains questionable. Behind the scenes, the club is trying to realign its direction with the imminent arrival of Paratici and the signing of Solomon, as well as the decision to keep Dodo, adding quality without selling pillars such as Guðmundsson and Kean. Ferrari points out that the athletic and technical data has improved under Vanoli, but the complete lack of draws suggests a team that struggles to control games.
AC Florence is expected to stick with the 3-4-2-1 formation we expect under Paolo Vanoli, with de Gea in goal and a back three of Pongracic, Comuzzo, and Parisi, plus Dodô and Gosens on the flanks. Mandragora and Fagioli should provide cover in front of the defense, while Ndour and Guðmundsson will play behind center forward Piccoli. Ranieri returns from suspension and is our first choice for the back line. Behind this projected starting eleven, Fazzini was expected to be on our previous bench, but club sources list him and Marí as injured along with Lamptey and Sabiri, so these spots are uncertain. Kean should return after his family leave, but reports that Vanoli could field Piccoli as center forward keep the role open. Solomon is a new option on the wing and we predict he will start on the bench, while Dodo remains at the club and provides additional flexibility.
Cremonese Form & Record Check
Cremonese travels to the Franchi in inconspicuously solid form. The promoted team is in 12th place in the table with 21 points and a goal difference of minus 2, just one point behind Udinese and one ahead of Torino, in the middle of a tightly packed zone. In their last five Serie A games, the team has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses, a mixed but acceptable haul overall. The run began with an impressive 3-1 win in Bologna and a controlled 2-0 victory over Lecce, suggesting that Cremonese might have more than just survival in mind. The subsequent 1-0 defeat in Turin felt like a step backwards against a direct rival, after which the 0-0 draw at Lazio and the 0-2 home defeat against Napoli showed the recurring limitations in the final third against higher-ranked opponents. Interestingly, the statistics nevertheless paint a picture of a team that gets into games, with 80% of their last five league games seeing a total of fewer than 2.5 goals, and during this period they have neither conceded nor lost after half-time. With no injuries and Barbieri, Floriani, and Pezzella competing for wing positions, as well as the option of Vandeputte replacing Grassi in the center, Davide Nicola has the opportunity to adjust his personnel to create more offensive pressure early on.
Cremonese are expected to stick with Davide Nicola’s usual 3-5-2 formation, with Audero in goal behind a back three of Terracciano, Baschirotto, and Bianchetti. On the wings, I’m leaning towards Barbieri and Vandeputte, even though Floriani and Pezzella are still in contention, especially as there are no injuries reported and so there is fierce competition for places. In midfield, I see Payero and Bondo as the central core, with Zerbin slightly higher up between the lines, linking the play to the attacking duo of Sanabria and Vardy. Bonazzoli is a real alternative to Sanabria, while Grassi could still be used if Vandeputte is not ready to start. All of this remains a predicted starting eleven and is not a lineup confirmed by the club.
Florence – Cremonese Head-to-Head & Statistics
In 2022 and 2023, the two clubs met four times in the league and cup, with AC Florence clearly having the upper hand. Three wins for Florence and one draw mean that Cremonese remained unsuccessful in this series, with a total of seven goals scored by Florence and only two conceded. Both Serie A matches went to Florence, who narrowly won 3-2 at home in 2022 and controlled the return leg in 2023, winning 2-0 away, giving Florence all six points in the league, while Cremonese are still waiting for their first point. The 2023 Coppa Italia semi-final confirmed the trend, with Florence winning the first leg 2-0 away and the second leg at home ending 0-0. Cremonese failed to score in either game, while Florence remained in control defensively and progressed with a clean 2-0 aggregate score. On closer inspection, Florence was ahead at halftime and won each of the first three encounters, suggesting that Cremonese often trailed behind. In these three games, Florence scored in both halves and Cremonese conceded in each half, but defended more compactly in the goalless second leg of the semifinal. Another pattern is the goals: the first three matches all ended with at least two goals, while the most recent one ended 0-0. So, the matchups were mostly open, but the last game pointed to a more cautious balance, which Cremonese could now build on tactically.
