Bologna won the penalty shootout against Inter in the Supercoppa, but then suffered a 2-0 defeat in a one-sided final against Napoli, in which Orsolini was one of the few positive performers. Now, with Europe looming large, Bologna heads into round 17 of Serie A with this mixture of results under its belt. At the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Vincenzo Italiano’s team welcomes Sassuolo for the Emilia-Romagna derby, with Bologna in 6th place in the table and Sassuolo in 10th. Italiano’s team is four points behind Juventus and only one point ahead of Como, so a home win would significantly boost their European ambitions. The last meeting here ended 4-2 to Bologna, which once again underlines how often this fixture turns into an open contest. Over the past two months, Bologna have continued to be one of the most in-form teams in Europe in all competitions, although their league form has dipped slightly, and this derby is the start of a demanding run of fixtures against Inter and Atalanta. Sassuolo travel here on the back of a frustrating 1-0 home defeat to Torino, their fourth home defeat of the season and a missed opportunity to close the gap on the European places, although they are only one point behind Atalanta and level on points with Cremonese. In that game, absences in attack hurt Fabio Grosso’s plans, with Berardi and Pinamonti missing, Cheddira and Volpato taking over up front, which reduced the team’s firepower, and Berardi still sidelined.
- Venue: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
- Date and time: December 28, 2025, 6:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 17)
However, the goal markets appear even more interesting, which we believe are underestimated by the market, as the fragile defenses suggest both teams will score and that Bologna will score twice in the second half.
FC Bologna Form & Record Check
Bologna goes into this derby against Sassuolo in solid but slightly cooling form. In Serie A, the team is in 6th place with 25 points and a goal difference of plus ten, four points behind Juventus and only one point ahead of Como, so the gaps are tight. At the same time, Bologna has picked up 25 points from 13 games in all competitions over the past two months, which is a first-class pace. The schedule for the last two weeks has been correspondingly demanding, with a 1-1 draw at Lazio in the league, followed by a 0-1 home defeat to Juventus, which slowed their climb towards the top of the table. In Europe, Bologna won 2-1 at Celta Vigo, and in the Supercoppa, Inter were eliminated after a 1-1 draw on penalties, before losing the final 2-0 to Napoli. A clear pattern has emerged in all competitions recently, with Bologna conceding a goal in each of their last five games, and in four of those games, the damage was already done before half-time. The second halves have mostly been close, with most ending with under 1.5 goals, and overall, there are often at least two goals in the games without them regularly turning into real goal fests. Italiano must continue to manage this phase without three key players, with Freuler out with a broken collarbone, Bernardeschi with the same injury, and Casale also unavailable, which affects the balance in midfield and stability in defense. Against Napoli, Cambiaghi started on the wing, Orsolini provided one of the few highlights with a cross for Ferguson, who failed to convert, while Castro disappointed and Dallinga was unable to change the result after coming on as a substitute. International models still rate Bologna highly, with one analysis placing them among the top 20 in Europe in terms of adjusted goal difference over the past two months, but the trend seems more pragmatic than brilliant, difficult to beat but rarely clearly superior over 90 minutes. If the slow starts and constant conceding of goals continue, their 6th place, four points behind Juventus and only one ahead of Como, could quickly come under pressure.
Bologna are expected to line up in their now familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Skorupski in goal behind a back four of Holm, Heggem, Lucumí, and Miranda in our predicted starting XI. In front of them, Pobega and Ferguson are expected to form a physically strong double pivot, while Orsolini, Odgaard, and Cambiaghi will play behind Castro, who is likely to retain his place as center forward. Key absences continue to shape this expected formation, with Casale, Freuler, and Bernardeschi all out injured, which is why our predicted defense remains unchanged and Cambiaghi starts on the left again. On the bench, we see Immobile and Dallinga as central attacking options, while Rowe and Domínguez are expected to provide depth and energy on the wings, all subject to official confirmation.
Sassuolo Form & Record Check
Sassuolo travels to Bologna as a mid-table team still searching for a stable rhythm. The visitors sit 10th in Serie A with 21 points, just one point behind Atalanta and level on points with Cremonese, so there is little room for slipping down the table. One win, two draws, and two losses in their last five league games paint a picture of a team that swings between ambition and inconsistency. Recent results underscore this, with a convincing 3-1 home win against Fiorentina followed by a 2-2 draw against Pisa and a clear 2-0 defeat at Como. The 2-2 draw in Milan showed morale, but the 1-0 home defeat to Torino, already the fourth at home, made it clear how fragile Sassuolo remains when the team has to control a game. Statistically, the trend is clear: Sassuolo has conceded goals in all of its last five Serie A games, and in four of those before halftime, which regularly forces the team to play catch-up. They are also vulnerable after halftime, with long periods without conceding goals being rare; four of their last five games have ended with at least two goals in total. The defeat against Torino summed up several problems. Without Berardi and Pinamonti, who was ruled out at short notice, Fabio Grosso opted for Cheddira and Volpato, and the attack lacked continuity despite a few half-chances. Muric had to save the team several times, while Vranckx, who started in place of the suspended Thorstvedt, and Matic struggled enormously against Torino’s pressing. Inter’s interest in Muharemovic underlines his potential, but overall Sassuolo and its defense continue to look vulnerable.
Sassuolo is likely to stick with a 4-3-3 under Fabio Grosso, with Muric expected to retain his place in goal. In front of him, a back four of Paz, Walukiewicz, Idzes, and Doig fits the pattern so far, with Matic sitting in front of the defense as cover, while Vranckx and Kone enliven the center with their running strength and ball carrying. Doig provides additional width on the left, while Paz tends to stay a little deeper. In attack, Laurienté and Volpato should support Cheddira as the central reference point. It is important to note that this is a predicted line-up, as Sassuolo still has several players out: Romagna, Pieragnolo, and Coulibaly limit the options in defense, Berardi is out with a thigh injury, and Skjellerup is also unavailable, meaning that the creative responsibility falls even more heavily on Laurienté and Volpato. Pinamonti and Thorstvedt remain realistic alternatives from the bench, which could change the attacking structure as the game progresses.
FC Bologna – Sassuolo Head-to-Head & Statistics
Bologna has a slight edge in the last five Serie A meetings from 2022 to 2024, with two wins, one win for Sassuolo, and two draws. The overall goal difference is 10-7 in Bologna’s favor, suggesting that Bologna has been slightly more efficient but has not translated that superiority into overwhelming dominance. Chronologically, Sassuolo started this series better, with a 3-1 away win in 2022, but since then Bologna has been unbeaten in four consecutive encounters. Bologna lost at home initially, but then responded with 3-0 and 4-2 victories, so the most recent home games have clearly gone their way. Sassuolo’s two home games in 2023 both ended 1-1, leaving Bologna with the overall upper hand. In terms of goals, every game in this sample has produced at least two goals, resulting in a streak of five games with over 1.5 goals between them. Bologna has scored in all five encounters, while Sassuolo has scored in four and failed to score only once, in a game in 2022. This mix of attacking prowess and defensive vulnerability on both sides suggests that open contests are the rule rather than the exception. Looking at the trend, the rivalry has shifted slightly in Bologna’s favor; after a 3-1 defeat in 2022, they stabilized with a 3-0 win, followed by two balanced 1-1 draws, before pulling away again in 2024 with a 4-2 result. Bologna may now be controlling the pace of the game better, while Sassuolo tends to rely on individual periods of pressure.
