Important Facts
- Bologna may only be tenth (30 points), but after three league defeats, Italiano is under pressure; Parma, in 16th (23), level on points with Cremonese, continues to look down the table.
- Bologna slipped to 1-2, 2-3 and 0-3 in the league, but showed in the Europa League with 2-2 and 3-0 that the offense is working.
- Despite a 2-1 win against Lecce and two 0-0 draws, Parma remains defensively stable but has the second-weakest attack with only 15 goals this season and has failed to score in the first half of its last five games.
- Bologna will continue to be without center backs Lucumí (thigh) and De Silvestri, while Parma will be without regular goalkeeper Suzuki (broken hand) as well as Ndiaye, Valenti, and Almqvist, which weakens their midfield.
- A home win is priced at around 1.6, in line with Bologna’s two wins over Parma in 2025; at the same time, Bologna’s 80% scoring rate after the break suggests they will be active in the second half.
On Sunday at lunchtime at the Dall’Ara, there will be a Serie A derby that feels much more important than a normal mid-table clash. FC Bologna are 10th in the table with 30 points, but Vincenzo Italiano is coming under scrutiny after three league defeats in a row, most recently a 3-0 home defeat to AC Milan. Parma, coached by Carlos Cuesta, are 16th with 23 points, level on points with Cremonese just above them, and continue to look down rather than up. Bologna have already beaten Parma twice this season, with a 3-1 away win in Serie A in November 2025 and a narrow 2-1 win in the Coppa Italia in December 2025.
- Venue: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
- Date and time: February 8, 2026, 12:30 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 24)
At the same time, Bologna has been conceding goals regularly lately, and Lucumí is still missing, which keeps the “Both teams to score” option in play – especially since Parma has added Strefezza and Nicolussi Caviglia. Interestingly, Bologna’s tendency to pick up the pace after the break also suggests a livelier second half.
FC Bologna form & record check
FC Bologna’s recent history has been divided depending on the competition. In Serie A, they have lost three games in a row, first 1-2 to Fiorentina, then 2-3 at Genoa, and finally 0-3 at home to AC Milan, results that fall well short of the expectations of a team aiming for more than tenth place. In the Europa League, on the other hand, they drew 2-2 with Celtic and then won 3-0 at Maccabi Tel Aviv, showing that their attacking prowess is still there. The bigger problem is how quickly games can turn around once they fall behind, which makes the derby feel at least as much a mental battle as a tactical one. Italiano has options in the final third with Orsolini, Castro, Cambiaghi, and Dallinga, but the balance seems fragile without Lucumí and with De Silvestri out. And with Cambiaghi, Freuler, and Ferguson just one yellow card away from suspension, control in midfield becomes all the more important.
Italiano is likely to continue with Bologna’s usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Skorupski in goal. Mário, Heggem, Casale, and Miranda seem the most likely choices in defense, especially as Lucumí is still out with a hamstring problem and De Silvestri is unavailable. Without Lucumí’s balance on the left, Casale’s positioning will be crucial, while the full-backs could still push forward aggressively. In midfield, Ferguson and Freuler are likely to form the double six, with Pobega playing in front of them as a link-up player. Orsolini and Cambiaghi should provide width and danger, with Castro remaining the central playmaker. After three league defeats in a row, Bologna could focus on clean first passes from Freuler and quicker support runs from Ferguson to allow the front four to work more closely together in pressing and attacking.
Parma Form & Record Check
The last month has been an indication for Parma of how thin the air is down there. They beat Lecce 2-1, followed by tough 0-0 draws away at Napoli and at home against Genoa, but they couldn’t go much higher than that. And when it tips, it tips hard, first with a 4-0 defeat at Atalanta, then a 4-1 defeat at home to Juventus. Even in games where they start out compact, they often lack the ideas to create any danger in the penalty area in the first half. The club itself has clearly stated that goals are the problem. Parma is described as the second-weakest attack in the league with 15 goals, and that’s exactly what the January transfer window was focused on. Strefezza and Nicolussi Caviglia are expected to bring more finesse to the game, and Carboni and Elphege have also joined the team, but injuries continue to hurt. And Suzuki’s broken hand makes Corvi the likely starter. If Parma stays in the game until the last half hour, the newcomers could at least make them uncomfortable.
Parma are likely to stick with Cuestas’ 4-3-2-1, although that is more of a projection than a confirmed XI. With Suzuki out with a broken hand, Corvi is the obvious starter in goal. In the back four, Delprato, Troilo, Circati, and Valeri are likely to start. With Ndiaye and Valenti both out, the options in the center are significantly reduced, so I expect a fairly compact line-up overall. In midfield, Keita should bring the necessary toughness, while Bernabé and Nicolussi Caviglia should play forward early and link the lines. The close duo of Oristanio and Strefezza behind Pellegrino suggests quick combinations through the half-spaces rather than classic wing play, especially with Almqvist out. Carboni and Elphege seem like the most likely wild cards if Cuesta needs more power.
FC Bologna – Parma Head-to-head & statistics
In the last five encounters, FC Bologna has come out on top with three wins, one draw, and one defeat. The most recent encounters took place in late 2025, with a 3-1 win in Serie A in November 2025 and a 2-1 win in the Coppa Italia in December 2025, both suggesting that Bologna’s attacking forces are consistently finding gaps in Parma’s defense. Parma’s best moment in recent times was a 2-0 league win in February 2025, when Bologna was consistently kept at bay. The results have been more controlled than wild, with four of these five games remaining under 3.5 total goals, including a 0-0 draw in 2024 and Bologna’s 3-0 win in 2021. Interestingly, the second halves in this fixture often remain fairly quiet, with the data showing a run of three games with under 1.5 goals after the break, which is a slight warning sign if you’re speculating on late goal frenzies. Nevertheless, Bologna’s recent victories show that they usually find their decisive moments.
