One point separates two teams marching in lockstep toward Europe, and on Wednesday evening at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, a direct duel will decide who comes out on top for now. Vincenzo Italiano’s Bologna, currently 7th in Serie A, welcomes Raffaele Palladino’s Atalanta Bergamo, who are 8th in the table, on matchday 19. Only one point separates the teams, with Bologna four points behind Como and Atalanta just one point ahead of Lazio, so the result could reshuffle the balance of power behind the title contenders. Bologna are coming off a 3-1 defeat at Inter and are in a weak league phase without a win in five games, while Atalanta have just narrowly defeated Roma 1-0 thanks to a goal from Scalvini and are on a slightly better run of form. Both coaches also have to manage important absences: Bologna are missing experienced players such as Skorupski and Bernardeschi, which puts more responsibility on Castro, Orsolini and an energetic young core with Domínguez and Rowe, with Orsolini having already scored six goals this season. Atalanta will be without Kossounou, Kolasinac, Bellanova, Bakker, and Lookman, which could further influence Palladino’s personnel decisions in attack, particularly around Scamacca and De Ketelaere.
- Venue: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
- Date and time: January 7, 2026, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 19)
The market is almost even, with Atalanta at 2.6 and Bologna at 2.7, but Atalanta’s better form and offensive advantage, even without Lookman, face a Bologna team that continues to create chances but is weakened by Skorupski’s injury in goal. All of this points to an open game that could ultimately tip in favor of the visitors.
FC Bologna Form & Record Check
Bologna goes into matchday 19 in 7th place in the table with 26 points, slightly less than the Coppa Italia winners under Vincenzo Italiano had hoped for at this stage. In Serie A, they have only managed one draw from their last three games, leaving them four points behind Como and with Atalanta breathing down their necks, just one point behind. The 3-1 defeat at Inter highlighted their current limitations. Bologna held their own at times, but after falling behind before the break, the team struggled to regroup, with Castro’s late goal serving more as a consolation. The 1-1 draw at home against Sassuolo showed more control, but Juventus won 1-0 at the Dall’Ara, highlighting how fragile Bologna can be when they have to chase a result. The Super Cup provided a brief reminder of their potential: Bologna held Inter to a 1-1 draw in the semi-final and advanced to the final on penalties, only to lose 2-0 to Napoli. Their last five games in all competitions have yielded a sobering record of no wins, two draws, and three defeats, a run that is gnawing away at their confidence. The statistics from these five games are clear: Bologna have not won either the first or second half, conceding goals in every game and in four of them after the break. The first halves are usually cautious, often with no more than one goal, but by the final whistle, the game has almost always slipped out of their control. Perhaps the fatigue of an intense December with many demanding games and important absences weighs more heavily than Italiano is willing to admit. Skorupski and Bernardeschi are missing, and the coach is constantly making adjustments, bringing Lucumí, Moro, Holm, Cambiaghi, or Odgaard into the game. Fabbian’s breakthrough, especially with Lazio signaling interest, underscores the quality of the squad, but their current form is clearly below the level of their recent cup success.
Bologna are expected to stick with Vincenzo Italiano’s 4-2-3-1 system, with Ravaglia in goal behind a back four of Holm, Lucumí, Heggem, and Lykogiannis. Moro and Ferguson are expected to form the double pivot, while Rowe, Odgaard, and Cambiaghi are likely to support Castro as the central attacking playmaker. Orsolini and Immobile remain important attacking alternatives from the bench in this predicted lineup. This is still an expected and unconfirmed formation, so adjustments are possible. Skorupski is out with thigh problems, which is why Ravaglia is preferred as the starter, while Bernardeschi’s collarbone fracture makes him unavailable on the wing. Rowe and Cambiaghi are natural options on the wings, and the depth of the bench with players such as Dallinga and Fabbian gives Italiano additional options should he change his lineup during the course of the evening.
Atalanta Form & Record Check
Atalanta travels to Bologna on the back of four wins in their last five games in all competitions, including an impressive 2-1 victory over Chelsea in the Champions League and hard-fought Serie A wins against Cagliari, Genoa, and Roma. The only slip-up was a 1-0 home defeat to Inter, a loss that highlighted how tight the margins are for Palladino’s side at the moment. This run has taken Atalanta to eighth place in Serie A with 25 points and a goal difference of plus two, just one point behind Bologna and one ahead of Lazio, keeping them firmly in the race for European places. For a club that recently won the Europa League, that is respectable, even if the impression remains that Atalanta has not yet fully reached its true level of performance. None of the last five games have been particularly comfortable, with the scores always close and no draws, suggesting that this team is living on a knife edge but increasingly knows how to deal with this situation. The first halves are usually deliberately slower, with the data showing under 1.5 goals per game, while Atalanta scores in most of these games and rarely concedes more than once. The 1-0 win against Roma summed up the current situation well, with Scalvini deciding the game early on and Atalanta then defending their lead in a disciplined manner, even though the TV debates focused mainly on refereeing decisions and a disallowed second goal by Scamacca. Palladino relies heavily on a young core, from Scalvini and Hien in defense to de Roon and Ederson in midfield to De Ketelaere, who links up with central strikers such as Scamacca and Krstović. If there are any concerns, they are about resources, with Kossounou and Lookman away on international duty and injuries to Kolasinac, Bellanova, and Bakker reducing depth on the wings. That’s why Palladino may need more playing time from Musah, Zalewski, Sulemana, and Maldini, while Krstović offers an alternative to Scamacca, but at the moment, the results are masking these potential bottlenecks.
Atalanta are expected to stick with their usual 3-4-2-1 formation, with Carnesecchi in goal behind a back three of Hien, Djimsiti, and Scalvini. Zappacosta and Bernasconi should operate as attacking wing-backs, while de Roon and Éderson provide balance in midfield. In the more attacking roles, De Ketelaere and Samardžić are likely to support Scamacca as the central reference point. Again, this formation is only a prediction and has not yet been confirmed, but the absences are significant. Kossounou and Kolasinac are missing in defense, making Godfrey the most important alternative if Palladino adjusts the defensive formation. Bellanova and Bakker are unavailable on the wings, while Lookman is away with his national team, which increases the creative burden on De Ketelaere and keeps Scamacca at the center of Atalanta’s offensive plan. Our predicted starting lineup is very similar to the team that beat Roma 1-0, when Scalvini scored the decisive goal. The offensive burden is likely to fall once again on the partnership of Scamacca and De Ketelaere, already highlighted in betting previews, with Samardžić between the lines and options such as Musah, Pašalić, or Sulemana on the bench to adjust the tempo as the game progresses.
FC Bologna – Atalanta Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Bologna leads the series with three wins, Atalanta has one win, and the duel ended in a draw once. Bologna won the league duels in Serie A in 2023 and 2024 and followed up with a quarter-final victory in the Coppa Italia in February 2025, knocking Atalanta out of the competition. Atalanta finally responded in April 2025 with a 2-0 home win that ended Bologna’s four-game unbeaten streak. In these five games, the rivalry was surprisingly low-scoring, with only nine goals scored in total. Each encounter remained under 3.5 goals, and four of them ended under 2.5 goals, the only exception being Bologna’s 2-1 away win in 2024. The results were close, suggesting that both teams are consciously limiting risks rather than playing for high scores. The timing of the goals also shows a pattern: during this period, Bologna never led at halftime and Atalanta never trailed at the break. Nevertheless, Bologna scored after the break, finding the net in the second half in four consecutive games, while Atalanta never won a second half and conceded goals after the break in four of the five encounters. From a competitive balance perspective, Bologna have shown during this phase that they can manage different contexts, remaining unbeaten at home with one win and one draw during this period and also picking up two wins from three away games in Bergamo, including the Coppa match. Atalanta’s only win in April 2025 suggests that the pairing is not one-sided, but recent history slightly favors Bologna overall.
