Everton’s surprising 1-0 win at Manchester United means that Saturday evening’s clash with Newcastle at Hill Dickinson Stadium carries significantly more weight, even though it is “only” the 13th matchday. Both teams are in the middle of the Premier League table, but their starting positions are different: Everton go into this home game with fresh confidence, while Newcastle are struggling away from home in the league but are more stable on the international stage. Everton are in 11th place with 18 points and have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five competitive games, with the away win in Manchester providing a real boost to morale. However, the suspension of Idrissa Gueye is problematic, as his presence in midfield and defensive stability are likely to be missed. At the same time, recent head-to-head matches have shown that Everton often only scores after the break and that late goals are no coincidence. Newcastle has been very strong in the Champions League with three wins from four games, but has not won away in the Premier League since April and has lost its last four away games in all competitions. In addition, the heavy workload of three games in eight days brings with it an increased risk of fatigue and rotation. In a direct comparison, the most recent encounters slightly favor Everton: an away win in Newcastle in May and a goalless draw in October 2024. Furthermore, the first halves were mostly uneventful, while the goals tended to come after the break, with Everton scoring in the second half in each of the last three encounters. Tactically, Everton are expected to defend compactly and passionately, especially without Gueye, which makes the work against Newcastle’s midfield even more important. For the hosts, the focus will be on Dewsbury-Hall, who recently scored the winning goal, while Newcastle will need their attacking players on the wings and precise crosses to initiate their attacks. Overall, there are many indications that this will be a close game with a moderate number of goals, with the familiar tendency for a rather quiet first half and more action after the break. Everton has home advantage, momentum, and a slightly more positive recent head-to-head record, while Newcastle has a stronger individual lineup but a pronounced weakness away from home.
- Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
- Date and time: 11/29/2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 13)
In the market, Newcastle are slight favorites with odds of around 2.6, while a draw is trading at around 3.3. On paper, it’s a fairly even matchup, but a closer look at form, personnel, and schedule density reveals some value opportunities. Newcastle have been waiting for a win in the Premier League for eight away games and have lost their last four away games in a row in all competitions. At the same time, their offense has scored in five consecutive competitive games, including three Champions League wins. This combination of clear away weakness and stable scoring threat makes simple bets on Newcastle as favorites risky, but it does favor markets that focus on a goal from the Magpies or, more generally, goals from both sides. Everton, on the other hand, have won two of their last three home games against Premier League opponents and have scored in seven of their last eight home appearances, but they will have to do without center back Jarrad Branthwaite, who is out until the end of January, making their defense more vulnerable. In addition, Everton are staying at home and therefore appear to be somewhat more rested than Newcastle, who are playing for the third time in eight days, which further supports the double chance of Everton or a draw, i.e. 1X. The combination of Newcastle’s recent scoring streak, Everton’s home goals and Branthwaite’s absence clearly supports the tip “Both teams to score: Yes,” especially as Newcastle have conceded in four of their last five games and Everton have scored in most of their home games, which clearly increases the probability of both teams scoring. This gives rise to specific betting ideas: conservatively, the value bet on 1X as a rational hedge against Newcastle’s away weakness, or more offensively, the tip “Both teams to score: Yes” based on the offensive form of both sides, and as a significantly riskier option, Newcastle to win away, but only if the odds are clearly above around 2.6 and Newcastle’s Champions League form is weighted more heavily.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton are in 11th place after twelve matchdays with 18 points, level on points with Manchester United directly above them and Liverpool directly behind them. Their recent record of two wins, one draw, and two defeats from their last five games looks solid overall. The 1-0 away win at Manchester United was outstanding, Moyes’ first success at Old Trafford in 18 attempts, with Everton remaining defensively stable despite Idrissa Gueye’s early red card in the 13th minute and Dewsbury-Hall scoring the decisive goal in the 29th minute after Garner’s assist. Everton had previously won 2-0 at home against Fulham and drawn 1-1 away at Sunderland. The clear defeats, 3-0 against Tottenham and 2-0 against Manchester City, were not entirely surprising given the opponents, but the home defeat against Spurs was nevertheless disappointing. In four of the last five games, there have been more than 1.5 goals in total, but individual halves have been remarkably low-scoring, which fits well with Everton’s more results-oriented style of play. The team plays compactly, is defensively disciplined, and regularly relies on strong saves from Jordan Pickford, but has conceded goals in three consecutive games, often in the second half, while the offense has limited resources but finds solutions at key moments. In terms of personnel, center back Jarrad Branthwaite is out with a thigh injury until the end of January, Nathan Patterson is expected back in early December, Merlin Röhl around Christmas, and Séamus Coleman recently had to be substituted after just ten minutes, but overall the defense remains stable. Under David Moyes, Everton has a clear identity: the team is well organized, difficult to break down, and combative. The results are usually close, reinforcing the impression of a solid team in a secure mid-table position.
For Everton, an expected lineup in a 4-2-3-1 system was originally outlined, and the accompanying text offered various possible steps such as a summary or abridgement, a translation into English, a table showing the starting lineup and absences, a tactical analysis and evaluation of the formation, a prediction of a possible substitute bench or alternative lineups in the event of further absences, and proofreading or stylistic revision in German.
Newcastle Form & Record Check
Newcastle currently occupies 14th place in the Premier League and has only earned 15 points from twelve games. The record of the last five competitive games, with two wins and three losses, underscores the inconsistency and falls well short of expectations. The surprising 2-1 home win against Manchester City stood out positively, with Harvey Barnes shining with a brace and showing that there is certainly offensive quality in the squad. On the other hand, the subsequent 1-2 defeat in Marseille in the Champions League had a negative effect, with Aubameyang’s brace dampening the momentum from the City victory. In their last five games, Newcastle have scored at least one goal in each match, but have conceded in four of those games, with around 80% of the goals conceded coming after the break, which points to concentration or intensity problems in the second half, especially as there are currently hardly any draws and the team usually wins or loses by a clear margin. Newcastle are particularly weak away from home, with no Premier League away wins since April, and defeats at Brighton, West Ham and most recently Brentford (1-3) paint a clearly negative picture. Coach Eddie Howe nevertheless largely relies on his regular starting lineup, including Joelinton for his physical presence, but injury-related absences such as Kieran Trippier, Yoane Wissa, and William Osula limit the options, even though Wissa and Osula could return in early December, and despite Barnes’ form, there is still room for improvement in the offensive game. In the short term, Newcastle needs, first, more intensity and tactical discipline immediately after halftime, including better-planned substitutions; second, more variability and pace in attack with additional presence in the penalty area; and third, a much more robust away mentality, from psychological preparation to a more compact performance against counterattacks.
Newcastle are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation with Pope in goal. Thiaw, Schär, Botman, and Burn are expected to start in the back four from right to left, with Kieran Trippier missing out with a thigh injury and therefore unavailable at right-back. Tonali, Bruno Guimarães, and Joelinton are expected to start in central midfield, with Joelinton playing a key role in Howe’s game plan due to his physical presence and strength in one-on-one situations, even though he is currently lacking in direct scoring points in the league. Gordon, Woltemade, and Murphy are expected to form the attacking trio from right to left, with Woltemade likely to be preferred in the center of the front line, while Barnes, despite his brace against City, is still considered more of a super-sub. Overall, the absences of Trippier and attacking options Wissa and Osula significantly limit Eddie Howe’s rotation options in attack. Tactically, there is much to suggest that he will stick to the stable 4-3-3 formation in order to secure possession and width in the game, with Joelinton’s physical presence and the playmaking of Bruno Guimarães and Tonali being particularly important, especially in duels with strong opponents such as Leverkusen.
Everton – Newcastle Head-to-head & statistics
In a direct comparison, Everton has had a slight advantage in the last five encounters, with a record of 2 wins, two draws and one defeat, with results such as a 1-0 away win in Newcastle in May 2025, a 3-0 home win in December 2023, a 1-4 defeat for Everton in April 2023 and a 0-0 draw in October 2024. In all of these games, no more than 1.5 goals were scored before the break, and Everton did not score in the first half in any of these encounters, suggesting a rather cautious start with a lot of tactical probing. After the break, however, Everton were regularly more dangerous. In the last three encounters, the Toffees scored in the second half, while Newcastle conceded at least one goal after the break, suggesting that Everton are improving in terms of fitness or tactics. One possible explanation is that David Moyes makes specific adjustments to his team at halftime, or that the team becomes physically stronger, opening up spaces that Newcastle is unable to react to quickly enough on counterattacks or tactical changes. Therefore, a scenario with few goals before the break and a livelier second half is plausible for the upcoming game. Probable constellations are 0 to 1 goal in the first half and then more goals, for example, an Everton goal after the break, which makes markets such as goals in the second half or Everton scores after the break particularly interesting for betting and game predictions.
