Espanyol – Atlético Madrid
Atlético have been unbeaten in the league for 14 years, and on Sunday they travel to the RCDE Stadium, where Manolo González welcomes an Espanyol side that has had a convincing preseason without defeat and looks well-rehearsed up front with Javi Puado and Roberto Fernández. The visitors arrive with many new faces and a clear mission to improve on last season’s poor away record. Baena comes into focus, Almada could start on the left, and Hancko brings stability. Sorloth is doubtful, while Griezmann is likely to come off the bench.
Espanyol has announced a full squad, with Ramón Terrats set to make his debut. Interestingly, González has yet to lose in two encounters with Simeone. The last league match ended 1-1 here in March, with four of the last five meetings ending in draws and few goals scored at half-time.
In sporting terms, the two sides have different objectives. Atlético has invested heavily and needs to deliver away from home, otherwise the title race will be tight. Espanyol wants to consolidate its position and take advantage of home advantage, while Atlético’s analysts know Puado and Roberto inside out. Formally, both teams are starting with no points, but the trend is clear: Atlético’s away performances have fallen short of expectations recently, while Espanyol’s summer has been more successful.
Espanyol – Atlético info
- Venue: RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat
- Date and time: 17.08.2025, 21:30
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 1)
In short, the tips are based on current patterns and the situation before kick-off: Over 1.5 goals – 2nd half, both teams have scored more than this in 80% of their last games after the break, Espanyol have conceded the same percentage of goals after the break, Atlético’s late power with Baena, Almada and a possible Griezmann as a substitute brings quality off the bench.
Both teams to score: No, Espanyol have scored in only two of their last five games, while Atlético’s defense looks more stable with Oblak behind Le Normand, Hancko, and Ruggeri, underpinned by their mature away performance in Newcastle and the return of Cardoso from injury, which improves the balance in midfield.
Under 1.5 goals – 1st half: Espanyol have had a low-scoring first half in 80% of their recent games, and Simeone’s away starts are usually controlled, especially with Sorloth missing and the new duo of Baena and Julián Álvarez still needing some fine-tuning. Atlético’s poor away record last season argues against an early onslaught, while their unbeaten run in league openers suggests a cautious start and a stronger second 45 minutes. Espanyol bring momentum with Puado and Roberto, while Terrats is a possible option to press between the lines, which is exactly where we see value in our goal bet.
Espanyol form & record check
At the end of the season, the league form looked shaky, with a 1-2 defeat to Betis, a 3-2 win at Leganés, a 0-2 defeat to Barcelona and a 0-2 defeat at Osasuna, before the 2-0 win against Las Palmas ended the run. There were no draws, with all five games seeing more than 1.5 goals, and in 80% of them they conceded after the break. The finishing looked more mature, with Javi Puado scoring from the penalty spot and setting up Pere Milla.
Espanyol remained unbeaten in pre-season, with four wins and two draws, including victories against Wolfsburg, Southampton, and Union Berlin. Manolo González has clearly defined the front line, with Javi Puado and Roberto Fernández set to start and Kike García coming off the bench. Interestingly, Miguel Rubio is pushing for a place in the starting line-up. In addition, the entire squad is registered, with Ramón Terrats set to make his debut.
The club has named survival as its goal for the season, but the tests indicate a slight improvement on the shaky end to last season. In terms of form, the Catalans start in eighth place, directly behind Alavés and ahead of Barcelona, all without any points. One question mark remains in midfield, where the team still lacks power. González’s two draws against Simeone so far fuel the belief.
Our prediction: González will stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Dmitrovic in goal, with El Hilali, Rubio, Cabrera and Romero in front of him. Lozano will play in the center alongside Terrats, who could make his competitive debut for Espanyol. In front of them, Carreras, Expósito, and Puado will play behind Roberto. Interestingly, Rubio is considered a candidate to start after a strong preseason, while Puado and Roberto seem to be set in the center.
Tactically, we expect a compact 4-4-2 against the ball, with Puado pressing alongside Roberto when necessary and plenty of depth on the wings through El Hilali and Romero. Expósito will link the lines, with Lozano and Terrats providing cover. The entire squad is available and registered, with no players missing. Alternatives would be Calero or Pablo Ramón at the back and Milla, García or Dolan in attack.
Atletico Form & Record Check
Atlético is coming off the back of a strong run. The bitter 0-4 defeat against PSG was followed by a 3-1 win in Seattle and a 1-0 win against Botafogo in the Club World Cup. In the final stages of the last league season, there was a 4-1 win against Betis and a 4-0 win in Girona. After the weak test in Porto, the performance in Newcastle looked more mature in the 2-0 win, with Julián Álvarez and Griezmann scoring.
The frequency of late breakthroughs is striking. In the last five games, the decisive actions often came after the break, with 80% of wins and no draws. Four times the total number of goals was over 2.5, and just as often over 3.5. The exception remains the lesson learned from PSG, when the Parisian pressing exposed the defense.
Simeone is making personnel changes. Baena and Almada are to provide the final pass to Julián Álvarez, while Griezmann is back fresh as a super sub. Raspadori expands the options, Hancko stabilizes, and Barrios is out injured. Taufik Seidu is pushing for a place. Interestingly, Nahuel Molina could disrupt the flow on the right if he leaves. Formally, Atlético starts from fourth place in the table, level on points with Athletic Club and Osasuna.
Our prediction: Simeone will stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation that was practiced in preparation. Oblak, Molina, Le Normand, Hancko, Galán. In front of them, Koke and Gallagher. In the three-man midfield, Llorente on the right, Baena in the ten, Almada on the left, Álvarez up front. Griezmann would be the obvious alternative for the front or the ten, but he is more likely to be used as a substitute.
Tactically, Baena is likely to play close behind Álvarez again, with Almada starting on the left but often drifting into the center to help with ball circulation. The pressing could be effective if Gallagher closes down the channels, as he did in Newcastle before the transition moment. Interestingly, the full risk would tend to come after the break, when Griezmann and Raspadori open up fresh avenues for combination play.
Personnel: Barrios is still out injured, so Koke and Gallagher are certain to start, with Cardoso as the first option off the bench. Witsel is gone, Hancko takes the left center-back role. Molina’s departure cannot be ruled out, but we currently expect him to start. Pubill and Ruggeri remain flexible alternatives for the wings. This lineup is a prediction, not a confirmation.
H2H Espanyol – Atlético Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches, there have been four draws and one win for Atlético. The last match ended 1-1 in March 2025. In August 2024, the score was 0-0. Before that, there was a 3-3 draw in 2023 and a 1-1 draw in 2022. Atlético’s only victory came in 2022 with a 2-1 win.
The high draw rate of 80% is striking, with Espanyol failing to win any of the games. Four of the five games saw over 1.5 goals, while four games saw fewer than 3.5 goals. One could say that both teams know each other well and neutralize each other for long periods without the games losing any of their intensity.
There is a clear pattern in the timing of the goals. Espanyol never scored before the break, and Atlético never conceded before the break either. After the break, however, both teams scored in three games in a row and both conceded as well. The second halves have been more open recently, with more than 1.5 goals scored in three consecutive games.
