Seven league games without a win for Elche, only two wins in 14 league games for Girona and a surprising cup exit to the underdogs – it is with this mixture of pressure and uncertainty that both teams meet on Sunday at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. Elche are solidly positioned in 11th place in the table with 16 points, while Girona travel to the game in 18th place with 12 points, but the mood is more complex: the hosts have stabilized after their negative run in their own stadium with convincing draws, while the Catalans are struggling with a form crisis, injury worries, and dwindling confidence. Coach Eder Sarabia has a fully fit squad at his disposal for the first time in months, which should do the team good at this stage. On the other hand, Girona is significantly weakened in attack, with Abel Ruiz, Stuani, and Portu among those missing, while van de Beek is out long term and Ounahi, an important creative player in midfield, is also unavailable. The most recent direct encounters have also been rather cautious and low-scoring, with four of the last five meetings producing fewer than 2.5 goals. Girona won three of those four games, including a 2-0 victory in the Copa del Rey in January at the Martínez Valero. However, Elche have shown resilience at home, drawing with Athletic, Real Sociedad, and Real Madrid, while Girona’s away form raises questions. A win would give Elche momentum and the chance to go into the winter break on a high, while for Girona, the points are almost existential given their position in the table and the tense personnel situation.
- Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
- Date and time: 07.12.2025, 2:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 15)
The main tip focuses on Girona to win, at odds of around 3.5 away, because their nominally higher quality combined with Elche’s run of seven league games without a win offers value, especially as Girona are reliable in attack and Elche remain vulnerable defensively, even if the market favors the home side. The market for both teams to score: Yes is supported by Sarabia’s indication that both teams want to attack actively, by Elche’s recent defensive lapses in virtually every game, and by Girona’s streak of scoring in every game, even if their overall performances have fluctuated. There is much to suggest a tentative start to the first half, with both teams showing the same pattern of around 80% Under 1.5 Goals – 1st Half in the first half, suggesting that the game is more likely to open up after the break. The away bet on Girona to win at 3.5 therefore has attractive potential, but is associated with higher variance, which is why a moderate stake or a combination with lower-risk markets such as Both Teams to Score is recommended.
Elche CF Form & Record Check
Elche are 11th with 16 points, level on points with Real Sociedad above them and Celta Vigo below them, and with a useful five-point cushion above the relegation zone, but recent trends warrant close observation. Seven games without a win are a clear warning sign, even if their performances at home are encouraging: draws against Real Sociedad and a 2-2 draw against Real Madrid, in which Rafa Mir hit the woodwork twice, show that Elche can compete with higher-ranked opponents at the Martínez Valero, but without rewarding themselves with wins. Away from home, the team remains clearly vulnerable, with four defeats in a row and still no wins this season, ranging from narrow defeats at Espanyol and Getafe to more decisive losses at Alavés and Barcelona. This away record is currently their most obvious weakness. In addition, Elche has conceded goals in each of its last five games, with all of those goals coming after the break. The first halves ended in a draw in around 80% of cases, suggesting that the team is competitive at first but then falters physically or mentally or succumbs to the opponent’s adjustments. Advancing in the Copa del Rey after extra time at Quintanar del Rey brought relief, but a heavily rotated team that only scored the winning goal in the 118th minute against a lower-ranked opponent feels more like a fragile state than a big boost. In terms of personnel, the squad depth looks better because Sarabia has all his players available for the first time in months, but at the same time, Grady Diangana’s renewed muscle injury just five days after his comeback underscores the fragile continuity of important offensive players. Sarabia’s public messages remain deliberately sober, emphasizing that a promoted team would probably have signed off on this interim result, but admitting that an additional point before the winter break would be very valuable. Overall, Elche is not comfortably overperforming or dramatically underperforming. Their home strength provides a foundation, but their vulnerability away from home and defensive lapses after the break are holding the team back, which is why the short-term priorities are clear: to analyze the dip in performance after halftime with a view to fitness, conditioning, and in-game adjustments; establishing a clear, lower-risk away game plan with more danger from set pieces and transition moments; specifically managing injury-prone players such as Diangana to ensure offensive continuity; and making the most of home games to collect points and build confidence.
At Elche, there are many indications that a 4-2-3-1 formation will be used, and since Eder Sarabia has his entire squad available for the first time in months, he can select his starting eleven based more on form and match plan than on the constraints of the injury list. Dituro is expected to start in goal, with a back four of Donald at right-back, Chust at right center-back, Affengruber at left center-back and Pedrosa at left-back. In the double six, Redondo and Mendoza are likely to provide balance between defense and build-up play, with Yago on the right, Aguado in the center, and Valera on the left forming the attacking trio behind lone striker Rafa Mir. With the entire squad available, Sarabia has a number of options at his disposal. The above lineup seems the most likely at present, but it could still be slightly adjusted depending on the final assessment before kickoff.
Girona Form & Record Check
Girona currently occupies 18th place with 12 points from 14 games, level on points with Osasuna and only two points ahead of Oviedo. Their recent record includes draws against Betis and Real Madrid and only one win in their last five league games, plus elimination from the cup by lower-league Ourense, which exposed weaknesses in the use of squad rotation. The situation is made more difficult by key injuries in attack to Abel Ruiz and Stuani, as well as the long-term absences of van de Beek and Portu, which are putting additional strain on the squad’s depth. At the heart of the problems is a recurring slump after the break. Girona has scored in each of its last five games, but has lost the second half in four of those games and not won a single one, suggesting physical decline, a predictable approach after the break, or psychological vulnerability when defending leads. Up front, the team lacks punch without the injured Ruiz and Stuani, while Vanat, who is inconsistent in form, does not take his chances consistently. while at the back, a goal difference of minus 13 and goals conceded in 80% of recent games point to structural deficits in set pieces or transition phases, compounded by the realization that the substitutes in the cup game were unable to maintain the required level. In the short term, over the next 2 to 3 games, a number of pragmatic measures can be derived: training sessions with targeted aerobic and high-intensity intervals at the beginning of the week, supplemented by deliberately controlled regeneration with hydrotherapy and reduced stress phases to limit fatigue in the second half, plus a clear half-time checklist with two simple plans, a conservative one to secure a lead and a more offensive one to catch up, each with clear individual tasks so that the structure does not fall apart after the break. Defensively, the fullbacks should focus more on directing and slowing down the opponent’s counterattacks to the outside, while an additional second ball winner is installed in midfield to stabilize transition phases. Offensively, simplified patterns help to create create chances with a higher probability of success, such as late runs from deep, overloads on the side away from the ball, and set pieces tailored precisely to the available players. In terms of personnel, without Ruiz and Stuani, a starting lineup is possible in which a mobile striker like Vanat is combined with a strong target man, such as a slightly deeper false nine or an attacking midfielder who repeatedly pushes forward to open up space and relieve the pressure on the striker. In the medium term, within a period of 1 to 3 months, there are clear transfer priorities, namely a short-term loan or signing of a clubless striker with finishing ability, physical presence, and a high work rate, plus a versatile winger with goal-scoring threat and a defensive midfielder to cover the back four. At the same time, Míchel should rehearse a more conservative 4-2-3-1 or 4-5-1 formation for away games or close matches in order to better protect leads and reduce vulnerability to counterattacks, deliberately give young or rotating players minutes in lower-risk phases to build confidence and competitive toughness, and incorporate regular sessions for offensive and defensive behavior on set pieces, because with the current negative goal difference, small improvements in this area can quickly bring in points. On a psychological level, the team needs a clear leader on the pitch who can calm the game down when they are in the lead, flanked by sports psychology measures to strengthen resilience and concentration after the break, and short, measurable goals such as a second half without conceding a goal or a defined number of pressing actions after winning the ball, in order to gradually regain confidence. For the next game, Míchel has a list of priorities, starting with a compact midfield duo to secure the transition moments, supplemented by a player with a clear mandate to consistently pursue runs from deep, two pre-determined half-time plans with specific tasks, and a preparatory focus on set pieces and finishing routines, plus earlier substitutions as soon as physical fatigue sets in, i.e., fresh legs between the 60th and 70th minutes. Overall, Girona’s performances are not far from being truly competitive, but they urgently need these pragmatic adjustments in fitness management, second-half organization, stabilization of transition phases, and sharpening of the offense through transfers or tactical adjustments so that the team can stabilize and leave the relegation zone behind.
Girona are also expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1, with goalkeeper Livakovic behind a back four of Arnau at right-back, Francés and Blind in the center, and Moreno on the left. In front of them, Witsel and Solís are expected to provide defensive stability in the double six and carry the ball cleanly forward from deep. In the attacking trio behind them, Tsygankov is expected to play on the right wing, Iván Martín in the center, and Gil on the left, with the option of creating numerical advantages through rotation and positional changes. Up front, Vanat will take on the role of lone striker, which is almost a given due to the injuries to Abel Ruiz and Stuani. Tactically, the thinning out in the final third increases the dependence on the creativity of the midfield trio and on the ball retention and transition play of Witsel and Solís to get Vanat and the advancing attackers into promising areas.
Elche CF – Girona Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In a direct comparison, the Catalans have clearly had the upper hand recently, with Girona winning three of their last five games against Elche and remaining unbeaten in their last three encounters from 2022 to January 2024. The most recent meeting was a 2-0 victory in the Copa del Rey game at the Martínez Valero in January 2024. The results during this period reflect this, with Girona winning 2-0 in the cup in January 2024 and recording further victories in La Liga in 2023 and 2022, each time by a two-goal margin. Elche’s only victory in this series dates back to 2020, a 1-0 win in the second leg of the Segunda División promotion playoffs after a goalless 0-0 draw in the first leg. What is striking is the low number of goals scored, with all five games remaining below 3.5 goals, four out of five even below 2.5 goals, and less than 1.5 goals scored in each of the second halves. The last three matches were all 0-0 at halftime, which suggests very cautious starts and a rather defensive, tactically wait-and-see approach. Based on these patterns, the upcoming game is expected to see few goals overall, with a high probability of a goalless or low-scoring first half and a close result with a one or two-goal difference rather than an open exchange of blows.
