Only one point separates the two title contenders ahead of their clash on Saturday at Signal Iduna Park. Second-placed BVB welcome third-placed RB Leipzig, with bookmakers seeing the hosts as clear favorites despite the tight table situation. Both teams come into the top-of-the-table clash with different levels of momentum: Dortmund are riding a wave of success after their convincing 4-1 win over Athletic Bilbao in the Champions League, while Leipzig have put together an impressive run of four consecutive wins since their disastrous 6-0 defeat to Bayern. However, the statistics from head-to-head matches clearly favor the visitors, who have won their last three Bundesliga games against BVB, most recently 2-0 away in March. Marcel Sabitzer could be the key factor against his former club after recently being praised as the face of Dortmund’s consistency.
- Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
- Date and time: October 4, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 6)
Dortmund form & record check
Borussia Dortmund are in impressive form and, with 13 points, are only two points behind leaders Bayern Munich in second place in the table. The Black and Yellows have won four and drawn one of their last five games, scoring in every match. Their attacking prowess under Niko Kovac is particularly noteworthy, as yesterday’s 4-1 home win against Athletic Bilbao in the Champions League underlined. After Svensson’s opening goal, Chukwuemeka made it 2-0 before Guirassy and Brandt sealed the victory. Dortmund have led at half-time in four of their last five games. Their defensive stability has improved significantly: in their last five games, BVB have not conceded a goal at half-time, which speaks for the tactical discipline under the new coach. This development is also evident in the league, with victories in Heidenheim and Mainz, both 2-0, as well as a narrow 1-0 win against Wolfsburg. After a difficult preseason, Marcel Sabitzer has developed into an indispensable stabilizing force, whose experience in the center and aggressive pressing give the team the necessary balance. The Austrian also makes his mark offensively, as his deflected shot to make it 3-1 against Bilbao proved. Kovac has to do without several regulars: Can is out with adductor problems, while Duranville is sidelined with a shoulder joint injury. Anselmino is also struggling with muscle problems.
Coach Niko Kovac is likely to stick with the tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 formation that proved so successful against Athletic Bilbao. BVB are missing several key players: Emre Can is still struggling with adductor problems, while Duranville is out with a shoulder joint injury. Sabitzer could once again start in central midfield after his strong performance in the Champions League. The Austrian has become an indispensable playmaker and brings the defensive stability that Kovac values. Jobe Bellingham is likely to keep his place alongside him, while Ryerson and Svensson could provide pace on the wings.
Leipzig form & record check
RB Leipzig are in impressive form after their disastrous start to the season against Bayern Munich. Following their 6-0 defeat in their opening game, the Saxons have won four league games in a row and are third in the table with twelve points, just one point behind tomorrow’s opponents Dortmund. The recent 1-0 win in Wolfsburg underlined the team’s renewed stability under Ole Werner. Johan Bakayoko scored his second goal of the season with a strike reminiscent of Arjen Robben, cutting in from the right and finishing into the near corner. Although sporting director Marcel Schäfer praised Bakayoko’s one-on-one strength, he still sees room for improvement in the Belgian’s finishing. The defense has shown itself to be much more solid, conceding only one goal in the last four games. The 3-1 win against Cologne, the narrow 1-0 victories in Mainz and Wolfsburg, and the 2-0 win against Heidenheim illustrate a new compactness. Werner has tactically realigned the team and returned to the original Red Bull DNA of intense pressing. Leipzig continues to be without several key players: Amadou Haidara is out with muscle problems, and Henrichs, Nedeljkovic, Finkgräfe, and Schlager are also unavailable. Antonio Nusa has returned as an option for the left wing after his forearm fracture, which opens up further tactical possibilities for Werner.
Ole Werner is likely to stick with the familiar 4-3-3 formation that has proven successful recently. After the important 1-0 win in Wolfsburg, the coach could largely rely on the same starting eleven that impressed there. However, the absences weigh heavily: with Haidara, Henrichs, Nedeljkovic, Schlager, and Finkgräfe missing due to injury, important pillars are missing. Haidara’s absence in central midfield in particular is a bitter loss for Leipzig’s game. On the other hand, Antonio Nusa is available again after his forearm fracture. Bakayoko could start up front again after scoring his now characteristic Robben goal against Wolfsburg. Diomande recently played on the left, while Rômulo played centrally. This attacking trio has worked well and could also be used in Dortmund.
H2H Dortmund – Leipzig Head-to-head & Statistics
The record of the last five encounters speaks for itself: Leipzig dominates this duel with four wins to just one BVB victory. Leipzig comes to Signal Iduna Park on the back of an impressive run of three consecutive wins. Dortmund’s only win during this period came at home in November 2024 with a narrow 2-1 victory. Since then, however, the Black and Yellows have suffered another 2-0 defeat in Leipzig in March 2025. The 4-1 debacle in April 2024 was particularly bitter, as Leipzig played to their full offensive strength. There is a noticeable pattern in the halves: RB Leipzig took the lead at half-time in all five games, while Dortmund never managed to win the first half. This statistic is likely to be of particular concern to Kovac, as a weak start could once again decide the game early on. Goals are guaranteed in this matchup. All five games ended with at least three goals, with Leipzig always scoring at least twice. Dortmund, on the other hand, only failed to score in the 2023 DFB Cup quarter-final, which also led to their elimination.
The home win at odds of 1.7 reflects Dortmund’s strong form, with Sabitzer acting as a stabilizing force in the center and proving to be the decisive player in the 4-1 win over Bilbao, while Guirassy has steadily improved his goal ratio. The half-time lead at odds of 2.1 looks attractive, as Kovač has programmed his team to build pressure early on. The bookmakers rate a draw at 4.5 as unlikely, even though the head-to-head record is completely even and Leipzig have developed remarkable stability under Werner. Bakayoko recently delivered with his Robben-esque goal in Wolfsburg, and the absences of Haidara and Schlager in midfield can certainly be compensated for, as Baumgartner and Ouédraogo have already developed a routine. The market assessment may underestimate Leipzig’s adaptability, especially as Werner is tactically flexible and his team has conceded only one goal in four consecutive games.
