Borussia Dortmund – Union Berlin
Niko Kovač is already under pressure after the dramatic 3-3 draw against St. Pauli, while Union Berlin travels to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK with the confidence of a 2-1 winner against Stuttgart. On Sunday afternoon, the second matchday of the Bundesliga will see two teams face each other whose start to the season could hardly have been more contrasting. Despite a convincing offensive with Guirassy, Anton, and Brandt, Dortmund dropped important points when Filippo Mané’s late red card paved the way for St. Pauli’s comeback. To make matters worse, the BVB coach, whose contract was recently extended until 2027, will have to do without Schlotterbeck, Süle, and Can. At Union, Ilyas Ansah became the match winner with his brace on his debut, impressively underlining the quality of the new signings under Steffen Baumgart. However, the Köpenick side have won only once in five direct encounters and suffered a memorable 6-0 defeat in Dortmund in February. The bookmakers see BVB as the clear favorites, which seems understandable given their home strength. Interestingly, there has never been a draw between the two teams, which suggests an afternoon full of decisive moments.
- Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund
- Date and time: August 31, 2025, 5:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 2)
Dortmund form & record check
The first few weeks under Niko Kovač’s extended contract paint a mixed picture. The 3-3 draw at St. Pauli on the opening day of the Bundesliga season seemed symbolic of Dortmund’s current form: impressive in attack, but alarmingly vulnerable in defense.
What is remarkable is the dependence on Guirassy, who scored the first goal of the new season after just 34 minutes. With 39 goals last season, the striker has proven himself indispensable, as evidenced by the narrow 1-0 win at Rot-Weiss Essen in the DFB Cup, where his late goal saved BVB from embarrassment.
The 9th place in the table after the first matchday does not hide the problems. The fact that they dropped three points despite a 3-1 lead against a promoted team does not speak for the necessary consistency. Mané’s red card in the final stages was particularly bitter.
The team is currently missing some important players. The permanent signing of Chukwuemeka until 2030 and the likely arrival of Silva show that the club wants to improve the squad. But will that be enough to find the defensive stability that will be needed against top opponents in the Champions League?
Coach Niko Kovač is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 3-4-1-2 formation. Kobel will be between the posts, while the back three could consist of Mané, Anton, and Bensebaini.
In terms of personnel, Kovač will have to do without some key regulars. Schlotterbeck is out for the long term with a torn meniscus, as is Süle with muscle problems. Can is also unavailable, which limits the options in central midfield.
In attack, the predicted line-up will revolve around Guirassy, who is considered an absolute lifeline after scoring 39 goals last season. Adeyemi could play as a second striker, while Jobe Bellingham is likely to take on the creative role behind him.
1. FC Union Berlin Form & Record Check
Union Berlin travels to Dortmund with considerable momentum. The 2-1 opening win against Stuttgart showed a team that has clearly found its footing under Steffen Baumgart and is operating with clear structures. Particularly impressive was the efficiency of the Köpenick team, who clinically converted both of their chances.
The match winner was Ilyas Ansah, who scored twice on his Bundesliga debut. The 20-year-old new signing from Paderborn underlined the justification for his signing with his performance. His two volleys, the first off the post after 18 minutes and the second shortly before half-time after an assist from Ilić, were testament to his precise finishing.
With three points, Union are in sixth place, level on points with Augsburg and Hoffenheim. This early position in the upper mid-table could well be the blueprint for Baumgart’s ambitions.
However, Baumgart has to cope with several absences. Tousart is out with gastroenteritis, Burcu is out for a longer period after ankle surgery. Nsoki and Ogbemudia are also unavailable. That could limit rotation, but the starting eleven from the first matchday already functioned like a well-rehearsed team.
The defense around Doekhi and Querfeld looked solid against Stuttgart, even though Rönnow was called into action several times. One could imagine that this combination of compact defending and quick transitions could be Union’s recipe for success in the coming season.
Union are likely to line up in Dortmund with the 3-5-2 formation that was also used in their surprise 2-1 win against Stuttgart. Coach Steffen Baumgart can count on goalscorer Ansah, who impressed with his brace in the season opener.
However, the personnel situation is tense: Tousart (gastrointestinal infection), Burcu (ankle injury), and Nsoki (muscle injury) are all out. Khedira could therefore play a central role in defensive midfield alongside Schäfer and Haberer, while Skov is expected to provide pace on the left wing.
H2H Dortmund – 1. FC Union Berlin Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record between the two teams paints a clear picture: Dortmund have won four of the last five meetings, while Union Berlin have only come out on top once. There have been no draws during this period.
The Black and Yellows’ current run is particularly noteworthy. They are unbeaten in their last three encounters with Union and have put in consistently convincing performances. The last meeting in February ended in a resounding 6-0 win for Dortmund at their home ground, Signal Iduna Park.
Union’s only win in this record dates back to October 2024, when they defeated Dortmund 2-1 at the Alte Försterei. This victory broke a long winning streak for the Westphalians and showed that the Köpenickers are quite capable of standing up to the favorites.
The goal threat posed by both teams in their duels is striking. In all five games, at least two goals were scored, and in most cases significantly more. Dortmund scored at least once in each of these encounters, while Union only failed to score twice.
Our tips are based on concrete evidence that becomes clear when taking a closer look at both teams. In “Both teams to score: Yes,” we see a remarkable constant: Dortmund has scored in each of its last five games, and Union Berlin has also been successful in each of its last three games. The decisive factor is that BVB is missing two regulars in defense, Schlotterbeck and Süle, while Union has Ansah, a striker who impressed with a brace in the opening victory.
The tip for over 2.5 goals fits seamlessly into this picture: Union Berlin’s last three games all exceeded this mark, while Dortmund scored three goals against St. Pauli and conceded just as many. In Guirassy, Dortmund have a striker who scored 39 goals in 51 competitive games last season and already found the net in the opening game. Union’s defensive weaknesses could open up further opportunities.
Despite the high odds of 5.3, betting on a draw is certainly appealing. The bookmakers see Dortmund as clear favorites with odds of 1.4, but recent history urges caution: BVB had a comfortable lead against St. Pauli before Mané’s red card sealed a 3-3 draw. Dortmund’s personnel problems and Berlin’s new strength could make for a more balanced duel than the market assessment suggests.
