A London derby in which a struggling Crystal Palace meets a resurgent Fulham kicks off the 19th round of the Premier League on New Year’s Day at Selhurst Park. Oliver Glasner’s team is in 11th place in the table, with Marco Silva’s Fulham directly behind them, both on 26 points and separated only by goal difference. Crystal Palace has had the upper hand in recent head-to-head matches, with three wins from the last four encounters, including a 2-1 victory at Craven Cottage earlier this month. Nevertheless, Palace come into this game on the back of three consecutive league defeats, with Glasner criticizing his side’s lack of attacking punch, his team having the most negative xG in the league, and Mateta failing to live up to his chances despite his goal tally. Fulham, on the other hand, have won three Premier League games in a row, with Wilson and Jiménez often making the difference. Both squads are depleted by injuries and AFCON call-ups.
- Venue: Selhurst Park, London
- Date and time: January 1, 2026, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 19)
Looking at the odds, the betting markets clearly favor Crystal Palace at around 2.2, even though some experts are expecting a draw. Given that Glasner’s team has gone five games without a win, Sarr is missing due to AFCON, and there is a lack of punch in midfield, the arguments seem to favor Fulham. The run of three wins and Wilson’s current form make the away win at 3.4 just as exciting as the slightly safer double chance, while Palace’s vulnerable defense and fluctuations in xG point to over 2.5 goals.
Crystal Palace Form & Record Check
Crystal Palace enters the new year in a significant slump. In the Premier League, two good wins were followed by three consecutive defeats, including the recent home loss to Tottenham, and they now sit in 11th place with 26 points. They share this haul with Newcastle just above them and Fulham just behind them, the buffer from the fall is largely used up, and the middle of the table is once again tightly packed. Palace are without a win in five games in all competitions, with draws against KuPS and Arsenal’s Cup team and defeats against Leeds, Manchester City, and Tottenham. The game against Arsenal at least showed resilience, with Benítez keeping them in the game with several saves and Guehi forcing a penalty shootout with an equalizer in stoppage time, but the 4-1 defeat at Leeds and the 3-0 home defeat to City looked alarmingly soft in the league. Current trends also suggest that the team is fading after halftime. In these five games, Palace has not outplayed any opponent in the second half and has conceded goals in every game, four times after the break. The first halves are usually cautious, often with no more than one goal, but then the spaces open up and Glasner’s team seems vulnerable to runs into the space behind the fullbacks. The deeper metrics paint a slightly different picture. Expected goals models show that Palace are creating enough to be significantly better off, with the club falling short of expectations by around 8.4 goals, and Mateta highlighted as the league’s biggest individual underfinisher, despite having already scored seven league goals. Earlier in the season, they even produced 4.4 expected goals in that wild draw against Bournemouth, underscoring the potential of the attacking structure. Injuries and fatigue help explain why performances have dipped, while the underlying process still looks credible. Doucouré and Muñoz are out, Sarr is away with his national team, and Kamada and Richards have also missed playing time, so rotation has been limited given a schedule that includes Europe and domestic cups. Nevertheless, Guehi and Wharton continue to impress scouts, suggesting that the midfield can remain strong provided reinforcements arrive.
In Crystal Palace’s lineup, Oliver Glasner is likely to stick with the familiar 3-4-2-1 formation from our prediction, with Henderson in goal behind a back three of Guehi, Lacroix, and, fitness permitting, Richards. Clyne and Mitchell should once again operate as wingbacks, with Wharton and Lerma covering the center. Ahead of them, Kamada and Pino are expected to support Mateta, who, despite falling short of his xG value, remains the central reference point in Palace’s Premier League attack. Injuries continue to plague this predicted team. Doucouré, Muñoz, Riad, and Kporha are still out, and Sarr is away with Senegal, which means there is little depth at the wingback positions and in defensive midfield. Kamada and Richards have been missing recently, but could be carefully brought back here. If either of them is not ready to play, Hughes, Ahamada, Sosa, or Canvot would be the obvious replacement options from the bench.
Fulham Form & Record Check
Fulham travel to South London in impressive league form, with three consecutive Premier League wins against Burnley, Nottingham Forest, and West Ham. The 1-0 win at the London Stadium, decided late by Jiménez from Wilson’s assist, underlined their ability to win tight games, although their narrow League Cup exit at Newcastle showed how fine the line between control and collapse still is. In their last five games in all competitions, Marco Silva’s side have three wins and two defeats, with no draws, and they have scored in every game. Fulham tend to start quickly, scoring in the first half in four of those games and never trailing at the break, but the second halves are often tighter and lower-scoring, making the results fragile. The numbers support this impression. At the start of the season, Fulham were wasteful, scoring nine league goals with around nine expected, but in the last eight games, their efficiency has improved significantly, with 15 goals scored with around 10 expected. Wilson in particular is in good form at the moment, having already scored five league goals, while Jiménez has four and is now also winning close games, such as the away match at West Ham. This efficiency has pushed Fulham up to 12th in the table, level on points with Crystal Palace on 26 and just one ahead of Tottenham, which is slightly above expectations for a team that had a bumpy start. Given the absences of Bassey, Iwobi, Chukwueze, and the injured Muniz, this surge is all the more remarkable and explains the renewed push in January for another striker.
Fulham are expected to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Leno in goal behind a back four of Tete, Andersen, Cuenca, and Robinson. Berge and Lukić are likely to anchor the midfield again and provide a reliable base for quick transitions. Ahead of them, Wilson is expected to start on the right, Smith Rowe as the central playmaker, Kevin on the left, and Jiménez as the lone striker. This is a predicted lineup and not a confirmed team announcement, with injuries significantly affecting the options. With Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze still at the AFCON and Muniz and Sessegnon out injured, Marco Silva has fewer options in defense, on the wings, and in attack. This could mean that Reed, Cairney, or Traoré will mainly come off the bench, maintaining the core structure that has driven Fulham’s recent resurgence in the league.
Crystal Palace – Fulham Head-to-Head & Statistics
Crystal Palace leads the head-to-head record in the last five meetings with three wins, one draw, and one defeat, as well as a goal difference of 8:4. Particularly noteworthy was the 3:0 win at Fulham in the FA Cup quarterfinals in March 2025, which knocked Marco Silva’s team out of the competition. Since then, Palace has won two more league games in February 2025 and December 2025. In all five encounters, there were at least two and at most three goals scored, so the number of goals remained moderate throughout. There was a series of three consecutive games until February 2025 in which the total number of goals was under 2.5. The last two games, the cup match in March 2025 and the league duel in December 2025, both ended with exactly three goals. Interestingly, there is a clear pattern within the games, with tight first halves and a stronger Palace team after the break. The first halves remained under 1.5 goals in each of the last three duels. Across all five matches, Palace has scored in four second halves and Fulham has conceded four times after the break, yet the second half has seen no more than one goal in the vast majority of these games. The home trend is also striking. The home team has won only one of these five games, Fulham’s 2-0 victory at Selhurst Park in 2024. Palace’s three wins have all come at Craven Cottage, each time without conceding a goal. Fulham’s remaining points come from a 1-1 home draw in 2024, so recent history suggests that the away team often feels more comfortable. Overall, this minor rivalry suggests a controlled game with two or three goals, with Palace looking a little more ruthless when chances arise, especially after halftime. Oliver Glasner may view Fulham as an opponent he can patiently manage, while Marco Silva continues to explain why his team so often falls away against Palace after the break.
