Newly crowned Supercoppa winners Napoli travel as favorites to newly promoted Cremonese, who will be looking to see how far their upward trend will actually take them at the Stadio Giovanni Zini on Sunday on matchday 17 of Serie A. Davide Nicola’s team is in 11th place in the table with 21 points, level on points with Sassuolo and Udinese and generally on track in the battle to avoid relegation, especially as they have already taken points off Milan. Conte’s Napoli are in third place with 31 points, sandwiched between Milan and Roma, and are under pressure in a title race that is extremely close at the top. Cremonese are coming off a 0-0 draw in Rome against Lazio, part of a mixed record with two wins, two defeats, and that solid draw, which is still within the expected range for a newcomer. This home game is seen as a test of ambition and stability, especially as Nicola has to replace the suspended Ceccherini, is hoping for Bianchetti’s return with a mask, and Payero is available again after serving his suspension. On the other hand, Napoli has momentum after their Supercoppa triumph, which was decided by Neres, and the bookmakers logically see them as clear favorites.
- Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona
- Date and time: December 28, 2025, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 17)
However, we see the real added value in a bet on under 2.5 goals and, in a slightly riskier variant, on Napoli leading at half-time, which is around 2.1. The Supercoppa winners coached by Conte tend to defend cautiously, Cremonese recently held Lazio to a 0-0 draw and make the first halves very tight, but without Collocolo and Ceccherini, the balance of power could ultimately tip more clearly in favor of Napoli’s higher individual quality.
Cremonese Form & Record Check
Cremonese go into the clash with Napoli in decent, if not spectacular, Serie A form. The northern Italians are in eleventh place with 21 points and a balanced goal difference, level with Sassuolo and Udinese, and for a promoted team that is relatively calmly on course for survival, this record exceeds pre-season expectations, especially as they have already picked up points against Milan. Their recent form has been mixed: a bitter 3-1 home defeat to Roma was followed by a convincing 3-1 win in Bologna and a professionally played 2-0 victory over Lecce, which felt like a six-point game. After that, a lackluster 1-0 defeat in Turin and a goalless draw at Lazio showed both the defensive resilience and the limitations of the offense outside the Zini. The 0-0 draw at the Olimpico was telling, with few chances, a clean sheet thanks to good organization, and a late scare when Ceccherini’s red card almost undid all the good work. Nicola had to do without Payero and Bianchetti, which adds to the credit for the performance, and it is precisely this ability to suffer and still come away with something that could be decisive in the battle for survival. The numbers support the image of a pragmatic team: In the last five league games, there have been two wins, one draw, and two defeats, a solid mid-table form that has kept the overall goal difference at zero, and in 80% of those games, the first half remained under 1.5 goals, suggesting that Nicola prefers cautious starts and only loosens the reins once the game has settled down. At the same time, the coach must continue to carefully manage his resources, as Collocolo remains sidelined with a thigh problem and Ceccherini’s suspension forces changes in defense, which toughens up the squad but also carries the risk of disrupting the processes that have recently provided stability.
Cremonese are expected to stick with a 3-5-2 formation, with Nicola likely to put his faith in this basic setup once again, which is why our predicted line-up has Audero in goal, backed up by a back three of Terracciano, Baschirotto and Folino. With Ceccherini suspended after his red card in Rome, Folino should retain his place, while Pezzella and Barbieri are expected to start as more conservative wing-backs. In midfield, we see Bondo and Grassi in front of the defense, with Payero returning from suspension in a more free-roaming role between the lines. Collocolo remains sidelined with a thigh injury, which reduces the depth in the center somewhat. Vardy and Bonazzoli are likely to start up front, while Sanabria, Okereke, and De Luca remain the most obvious alternatives for fresh impetus in attack.
Napoli Form & Record Check
Napoli travels to Cremona in solid but not outstanding Serie A form. Antonio Conte’s team is in third place in the table with 31 points and a positive goal difference of 9, just one point behind Milan and one ahead of Roma in a title race where the top five are within one point of each other. The recent defeat at Udinese was a reminder of how narrow the margins remain away from home. Across all competitions, the last five games paint a mixed picture: in the league, they beat Juventus 2-1 at home, then lost 2-0 to Benfica in the Champions League and suffered a 1-0 defeat in Udine. Conte’s response was evident in the Super Cup, as Napoli beat Milan 2-0 in the semi-finals and dominated Bologna 2-0 in the final to secure the trophy. Statistically, it is striking that there has not been a single draw in these five games, so Napoli are walking a tightrope. Four of these games ended with at least two goals, but rarely with significantly more than two, with every first half remaining under 1.5 goals and only once did the second half produce more than one goal, suggesting a deliberately controlled pace of play. In terms of personnel, the absence of influential midfielders Anguissa and De Bruyne weighs heavily, and Gilmour is also out, meaning that Lobotka, McTominay, and Elmas will have to shoulder additional responsibility when in possession. In attack, Neres is in outstanding form after his brace in the Super Cup final, supported by width from players such as Politano and Lang, while full-backs Spinazzola and Gutiérrez are expected to provide width without opening up the defense too much. Overall, this is a team that has just won a title and remains in contention for the Scudetto, but at the same time, the defeats against Benfica and Udinese reveal that their attacking power suffers when the offense is clogged up, especially away from home, and Conte hopes that with a little more creativity between the lines, he can turn this solid phase into a real boost.
Napoli are likely to stick with the 3-4-2-1 formation outlined above, with Milinković Savić in goal behind a back three of Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, and Buongiorno. Politano and Spinazzola will once again provide width, while Lobotka and McTominay will provide cover in the center. In front of them, Neres and Elmas are expected to operate between the lines, behind Højlund as the lone striker. With Gilmour, Anguissa, and De Bruyne still out, the alternatives in midfield are relatively limited, making Elmas even more important as the link to the attacking players. According to recent reports, Napoli are also waiting for Lukaku to return from injury, so he remains on the bench in our projection as a possible weapon, while Neres, fresh from his brace in the Supercoppa, has a very good chance of starting again.
Cremonese – Napoli Head-to-head & statistics
In the last three head-to-head matches, Napoli has mostly had the upper hand. In Serie A, the southern Italians won both games, 4-1 in Cremona in 2022 and 3-0 at home in 2023, while Cremonese celebrated their only success in this period in the round of 16 of the Coppa Italia in 2023, when they advanced after a 2-2 draw on penalties. Overall, Napoli leads these three encounters 9-3 on aggregate, with more than 2.5 goals scored in each game. Napoli scored in all three matches, Cremonese failed to score only in the last league game, and in two of the encounters there were at least four goals, which suggests that these are open and relatively high-scoring games. The early stages were strikingly one-sided, with Napoli winning the first half in all three games, Cremonese trailing at the break each time and conceding at least one goal in each first half, underlining the pattern that falling behind early has become a recurring theme. At the same time, the clear distinction between league and cup shows that Napoli did not drop a point against Cremonese in Serie A during this period and scored at least three goals in each game, while the Coppa Italia match in 2023 proved that Cremonese can certainly keep up over 90 minutes, even if it ultimately had to be decided on penalties. Against this backdrop, Conte can approach the game with a certain degree of confidence that his team can control the game early on, while Nicola is likely to try to stabilize the vulnerable first half. The statistics point to another game with goals, even if the cup upset remains in the back of the mind as a reminder that Cremonese is quite capable of upsetting the expected order of play.
