Important Facts
- Como is sixth (34 points) between Roma (+5) and Atalanta (-3); any result could immediately tip the balance in terms of European qualification, as the table remains tight.
- The 1-1 draw against Bologna showed Como’s morale: Baturina equalized in the 94th minute, while Paz hit the post and crosses often dominated in the build-up.
- In their last five games, Milan have kept under 1.5 goals in each first half and have mostly scored after the break, which fits with late equalizers against Fiorentina and Genoa.
- Injuries could shape the balance of power: Como are without Morata, Diao, and Goldaniga, while Gimenez is out for Milan, Füllkrug is missing, and Leão is doubtful.
- Both of the last two H2H games saw over 2.5 goals, and Milan have conceded in their last two league games, so “Both teams to score: Yes” and Over 2.5 remain interesting despite the favorite odds of 2.5.
There is a lot of pressure between Como’s European chase and Milan’s title race this Thursday, January 15, at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Cesc Fàbregas leads Como, sixth in the table, against Massimiliano Allegri’s second-placed AC Milan. Como are on 34 points, five behind Roma ahead of them and only three ahead of Atalanta, so practically every result counts in the chase for Europe. Milan travel with 40 points, three behind Inter and one ahead of Napoli, in the midst of a tight title race. Como’s league campaign has largely lived up to expectations from the preseason, at times even exceeding them, and the recent 1-1 draw against Bologna showed that they will stay in the hunt until the end. Baturina saved a point in stoppage time. AC Milan are unbeaten in 18 Serie A games, but consecutive 1-1 draws against Genoa and Fiorentina have reinforced criticism that they sometimes drop points against supposedly smaller opponents. The recent comparison favors the visitors, with AC Milan winning both league games last season 2-1, both after the break. Como will therefore be looking to manage the second half more cleanly. Team news could tip the balance. Leão is being monitored for adductor problems, Füllkrug has a toe injury, and Gimenez is still out, putting even more pressure on Nkunku and Pulisic. Como will continue to be without Morata, Diao, and Goldaniga, while Ramon and Van der Brempt are attracting attention in the transfer market.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
- Date and time: January 15, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 16)
The three-way market is fairly balanced, with the draw at 3.3 and AC Milan only slight favorites at 2.5. Nevertheless, the odds are tipping slightly in Allegri’s favor because Como are missing Diao, Morata, and Goldaniga, and AC Milan simply have the broader squad, even if Leão is uncertain and Füllkrug is out.
Como form & record check
Como are sixth in Serie A with 34 points, and that seems more hard-earned than lucky. The slip-up in December at Roma, a 1-0 defeat, is their only blemish in the last five league games, but the table still leaves no room for breathing. Roma are five points ahead, Atalanta only three behind, so every good result must be followed up immediately. As things stand, their form is stable. The 1-1 draw against Bologna summed up both their conviction and their occasional lack of punch. After falling behind, Como played half an hour against ten men and still needed Baturina’s curling shot in the 94th minute to salvage a point. Paz hit the post, Butez had to be alert early on, and in build-up play, it was at times more a case of hoping for crosses than clean combinations. Before that, the series of 3-0 away wins in Lecce and Pisa, plus a controlled 1-0 win against Udinese, showed a team that defends confidently in its own penalty area and consistently punishes mistakes. Interestingly, their last five first halves have all been under 1.5 goals, with no goals conceded before the break, which speaks for their structure. Injuries to Goldaniga, Diao, Addai, and Morata are thinning out the options, while Ramón and Van der Brempt are attracting a lot of attention on the transfer market.
Fàbregas is likely to stick to his usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Butez in goal, Van der Brempt and Moreno as full-backs, and Carlos alongside Kempf in the center. Perrone should form the double six together with Da Cunha, with Paz then being the most important link player behind Douvikas. Rodríguez and Vojvoda seem to be the most likely options on the wings, even if this is only a predicted starting eleven for Thursday evening. Injuries are influencing the assessment. Morata is still missing up front, and Diao and Addai take away two direct wing options, which means Rodríguez will probably have to take over a lot of the running behind Paz. Goldaniga’s heel problem also limits the depth in central defense, with Dossena or Posch the obvious cover if needed. Perrone is likely to provide cover and release the full-backs early, but nothing has been confirmed.
AC Milan form & record check
AC Milan travel to Como in second place with 40 points, three behind Inter and only one ahead of Napoli, so every slip-up counts. Their league form is solid but not brilliant, and Allegri’s team often seems to be built to avoid chaos first and win second. This approach has prevented defeats in Serie A for months, but at the same time has made close finishes and late pressure almost the norm. The recent run tells exactly that story. Away at Fiorentina, the final score was 1-1, with Nkunku saving the point in the 90th minute after Pulisic missed early chances and AC Milan conceded from a set piece. Before that, Genoa also took a 1-1 draw from San Siro, with AC Milan needing a header from Leão in stoppage time, plus a missed penalty at the other end. The 0-1 win in Cagliari and the 3-0 win against Verona were much more convincing. The patterns are clear. In their last five games, AC Milan have scored less than 1.5 goals in each first half, then came out firing after the break, scoring in the second half in four of those games. Maignan’s stats in all competitions, 17 goals conceded in 21 games with 10 clean sheets, underline the defensive foundation, but injuries threaten the attack. Gimenez remains sidelined, Füllkrug is expected to miss out through injury, and Leão is doubtful, which could further limit the options.
Allegri is likely to stick with his 3-5-2, with Maignan behind an obvious back three of De Winter, Gabbia, and Tomori. Saelemaekers and Estupiñán should provide width, while Ricci and Fofana set the pace and Loftus Cheek, with his runs forward, ensures that the build-up puts pressure on the second ball. Up front, the prediction is that Pulisic will play behind Nkunku, who has increasingly made the difference recently. Leão is doubtful due to adductor problems, so even if he makes the squad, he could start on the bench. Gimenez is still out after ankle surgery, and Füllkrug is expected to be sidelined with a broken toe, which noticeably limits Allegri’s options for a more traditional center forward. Pavlović is also unavailable, which further reduces the options for rotation in central defense.
Como – AC Milan Head-to-head & Statistics
In the last two meetings, both in Serie A, AC Milan beat Como twice with the same score of 2-1. In January 2025, AC Milan won 2-1 away at Como, and in March 2025, they repeated the feat at San Siro. This brings the most recent head-to-head record to 2 wins, 4 goals scored, 2 goals conceded, and no draws in this sample. Interestingly, both games followed a similar pattern. The first halves were tight and scoreless, with AC Milan failing to score before the break and Como not conceding early on. After the break, the game opened up, with three goals scored in the second half of each game, and AC Milan winning the second half both times. Como scored in both games but couldn’t hold off Milan’s late pressure. Both games had over 2.5 goals but stayed under 3.5, so it was the moments that mattered, not dominance. Como’s problem was their resilience after the break, as they conceded a goal after the interval in both games. With Goldaniga and Diao missing and Morata unavailable, the depth of the squad will be tested. AC Milan are missing Gimenez and Pavlović, which could shift the responsibility more towards the midfield in order to turn the second half in their favor again.
