Ragnar Ache has already scored against HSV and hopes to continue his scoring streak for Cologne when 1. FC Köln hosts Hamburger SV on Sunday afternoon. A clash between two promoted teams with different seasons so far: FC are in 8th place with 11 points from 8 games, just two points behind sixth place, and are performing solidly despite a smaller budget and numerous departures. HSV are in 13th place, three points behind Cologne; the Rothosen are only just above the relegation zone on goal difference. The form curves diverge significantly: Cologne are without a win in three league games, but have shown morale in recent matches, for example in their long battle against Dortmund despite being a man down, or in their late defeat by Beier. In the DFB Cup, Cologne briefly led Bayern, but ultimately lost 1-4. Hamburg comes into the game with momentum from the cup after Glatzel converted a late penalty in Heidenheim, but is in a negative streak in the league with two recent defeats, including 0-1 in Wolfsburg. The head-to-head record favors HSV: Hamburg has lost only once to Cologne since 2017, with the Rothosen winning the most recent second division matches 1-0 in January at Millerntor and 2-1 in early August on the Rhine.
- Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
- Date and time: November 2, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 9)
The recommendations are based on statistics and the form of both promoted teams. Cologne has major personnel problems in defense, with Hübers, Luca Kilian, and Rav van den Berg all missing, which makes the defense vulnerable; in four of their last five games, they have conceded at least two goals. Hamburg has shown offensive drive in recent games, scoring multiple goals in three of their last five matches. Despite Cologne’s personnel problems, the FC is seen as the favorite by the market, with odds of around 2.2. A draw is trading at around 3.6 and is an attractive alternative given the proximity of both teams in the table and their form. Over 2.5 goals seems like a sensible main bet: due to Cologne’s defensive crisis and Hamburg’s hunger for goals, a game with at least three goals is plausible; both teams have scored multiple times recently. Both teams to score: Yes is also highly likely, as Cologne has a strong offensive player in Said El Mala and Hamburg has a reliable striker in Robert Glatzel. A safer option is Double Chance 1X (home win or draw), based on Cologne’s home strength and Hamburg’s away weakness. Ragnar Ache could play a decisive role, having already scored against HSV and scored the 1-0 against Bayern, which could boost his team’s morale.
Cologne form & record check
Cologne has recently shown mixed performances with only one win in the last five games and two defeats in a row: 1-4 against Bayern in the DFB Cup and 0-1 in Dortmund. After a good start to the season, they have lost some momentum. Their weakness after halftime is striking: in their last five games, they have not won after the break and have repeatedly conceded goals in the second half. Offensively, FC scored in four of five games, but conceded goals just as often. With 11 points, Cologne is in 8th place, level on points with Werder Bremen; they are two points behind 7th place. The defense has been significantly weakened: Timo Hübers suffered a serious knee injury in Dortmund and has already undergone surgery; in addition, Luca Kilian, Rav van den Berg, and Jan Thielmann are out long-term, leaving the squad thin. Coach Lukas Kwasniok must quickly establish defensive stability in the second half, for example through tactical adjustments at halftime or more defensive substitution strategies. Alternatives for central defenders and the integration of youth or loan players should be considered; fitness management will be crucial to minimize further absences. Without an improvement in defensive performance after the break and without solutions to the injury problem, there is a risk of a downward trend.
The personnel situation at 1. FC Köln is tense: four absences are forcing coach Lukas Kwasniok to make adjustments. Hübers is out with a knee injury, Kilian with a cruciate ligament rupture, van den Berg with shoulder problems, and Thielmann with a muscle injury. The loss of Timo Hübers in particular is a heavy blow to the defense. The likely system choice is a 3-4-3 to stabilize the defense. Heintz, Schmied, and Özkacar are expected to start in the back three. Lund and Sebulonsen are planned for the wings. Martel and Krauß will form the central midfield duo. Bülter, Ache, and the in-form Said El Mala are the first options in attack. Kainz, Waldschmidt, and Kaminski are among the alternatives for the starting eleven.
HSV Form & Record Check
With eight points from eight games and in 13th place, HSV finds itself in no man’s land. The negative goal difference of minus 4 and the recent Bundesliga defeats indicate ongoing problems, especially away from home. The cup success in Heidenheim, when Glatzel converted a penalty in the 83rd minute, provides some relief, even if the decision was controversial. Interestingly, HSV have not conceded a goal in the second half of any of their last five games; at the same time, the first 45 minutes have mostly been low-scoring: four of the last five games had less than 1.5 goals at halftime. This suggests a cautious, wait-and-see approach that only gains clarity after halftime. The 4-0 home win against Mainz was an outlier; after that, consistency was lacking. The 0-0 draw in Berlin at least earned them a point, but it also highlighted problems in consistently taking chances. Omari, Capaldo, and Baldé are out due to injury; the limited rotation is putting pressure on the team’s lineup and making it difficult to maintain stability in the system. Coach Merlin Polzin needs to make the first halves more active, for example by pressing earlier or making flatter runs to create space; Set pieces and calm ball circulation could help against early stagnation. As long as injuries persist and the first-half problems remain, a slide into the lower reaches of the table is possible; however, if the team manages to create chances more quickly before the break and stabilizes its rotation, a place in the safe mid-table is realistic.
HSV are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, as they did in their recent cup match against Heidenheim. Heyer Fernandes is likely to start in goal, with Peretz having only been used in cup matches so far. The back three is expected to consist of Torunarigha, Vuskovic, and Elfadli. Omari is still out with a torn ligament, Capaldo with calf problems, and Baldé with muscle issues. Gocholeishvili and Muheim are set to start on the wings, with Meffert and Lokonga forming the central midfield duo. Vieira and Dompé will play as attacking midfielders behind lone striker Glatzel, who is expected to pose a threat in front of goal again after his late penalty in the cup against Heidenheim.
Cologne – HSV Head-to-head & Statistics
The recent competitive history between Cologne and Hamburg favors the visitors: In the last five encounters, HSV won two competitive games, including the 2022 DFB Cup after a penalty shootout; Cologne won only one friendly, with two draws. The last two competitive games in 2024/2025 were both narrowly decided by HSV, 2-1 in August 2024 and 1-0 in January 2025, indicating Hamburg’s current superiority in head-to-head matches. One might think that both teams know each other well by now: in four of the last five games, most of the goals were scored in the first half, with things mostly quiet after the break, suggesting tactical stabilization or retreat.
