Only one point separates Chelsea in fifth place and Everton in seventh in the battle for European places when the two sides meet at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League on December 13. Chelsea won this fixture 1-0 here last season after dispatching Everton 6-0 in 2024. Interestingly, Chelsea are without a win in four games in all competitions since beating Barcelona, with Maresca’s heavy rotation and defeat at Atalanta raising questions, and he continues to be without the suspended anchor Caicedo, while Palmer is expected to provide more creativity and Fofana is doubtful. Moyes’ Everton, on the other hand, have won four of their last five games and two away games, an impressive record for a team with only 18 league goals from 15 games.
- Venue: Stamford Bridge, London
- Date and time: 13.12.2025, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 16)
The bookmakers have Chelsea at around 1.7 and Everton as clear underdogs at close to 5.3, but our assessment leans more towards the underestimated balance of this match. We favor Everton to score, both teams to score, and the visitors to be interesting in a double chance.
Chelsea Form & Record Check
Chelsea go into this weekend in fifth place in the Premier League with 25 points, seven points behind leaders Arsenal. The field around them is tight, with Crystal Palace just one point ahead of them and Manchester United close behind on the same number of points. A run of four games without a win in all competitions has turned their previous momentum into something much more fragile, with Everton sensing their chance right behind them. This run began immediately after their excellent 3-0 win over Barcelona, after which Chelsea drew 1-1 at home to Arsenal, lost 3-1 at Leeds, and struggled to a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth. Their performances have declined, especially away from home, where their defensive structure has looked shaky and their build-up play sluggish, even though they continue to score in most games. In Europe, the contrast is striking. Chelsea were unbeaten in four Champions League games and seemed to be flying after the Barcelona win, which, according to Opta projections, briefly raised their chances of direct qualification to over 50%. However, the 2-1 defeat at Atalanta exposed familiar weaknesses, from questionable goalkeeping by Sánchez to uncertain substitutions during the game, and reduced those odds to around a quarter. The numbers behind this phase underscore a team lacking real continuity. Maresca has made an average of more than five changes per game over the course of the season and uses over four substitutions per game, and the last three games with particularly intense changes have resulted in two defeats and a draw. Recent games have often been tight before halftime and open up later, which could be related to fatigue and the absence of Caicedo, Lavia, and Delap. In terms of expectations, Chelsea’s ceiling remains high. The performance against Barcelona and the controlled draw against Arsenal showed that Maresca’s positional play can dominate top opponents when the starting lineup is in place, with James, Enzo, and Palmer as central figures. However, maintaining this level week after week, with rotation and key absences, is precisely where this team is currently failing.
Chelsea are expected to stick with Maresca’s usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Sánchez in goal behind James, Chalobah, Badiashile, and Cucurella. Fernández and Santos are likely to operate as a double six, with Palmer playing between the lines behind João Pedro, while Neto and Garnacho pull inside from the wings. This is a predicted starting lineup, not a confirmed one, and Maresca could still make a late change. Significant absences characterize this projected lineup. Caicedo is serving the final game of his domestic suspension, while Lavia, Colwill, and Delap remain sidelined and Mudryk is suspended in all competitions. Fofana is doubtful after what Maresca described as a fairly serious eye problem, so Chalobah and Badiashile will start, and Gusto, Adarabioyo, and Hato are likely to provide defensive cover.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton travels to Stamford Bridge in quietly impressive form. The team sits in seventh place with 24 points, just one point behind Manchester United and one point ahead of Brighton. Moyes’ team has picked up four wins from its last five Premier League games, beating Fulham 2-0, winning 1-0 at Manchester United, losing 4-1 to Newcastle, narrowly beating Bournemouth 1-0, and leaving Nottingham Forest behind 3-0. In each of these games, Everton scored and, crucially, rarely lost control after halftime. Recent games show that they often win or at least hold their own in the second halves, with most of these periods remaining low-scoring. This speaks to a more mature team that tends to stabilize when in the lead rather than falling into disarray, a stark contrast to the start of the season. Tactically, the recent upturn has come despite a formally cobbled-together team. Injuries to Branthwaite and Röhl, as well as uncertainty at right-back, forced Moyes to make bolder decisions. O’Brien has brought more mobility alongside Tarkowski, while Garner has often stepped in on the wing without losing influence. In midfield, Dewsbury-Hall and Alcaraz provide plenty of energy around the creative axis of Grealish, Barry, and Ndiaye, who work quickly and sharply in front of them. Nevertheless, Everton remains a pragmatic work in progress. Eighteen league goals in 15 games show that they still lack uncompromising punch, which explains the interest in another striker. On the other hand, an expected goals against of around 19.2 and lingering doubts about Keane alongside Tarkowski suggest that this defensive run is fragile. For a team openly fighting for European places, seventh place looks encouraging but is far from secure.
Everton are expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has underpinned their recent resurgence, with Pickford behind a back four of Patterson, Tarkowski, O’Brien, and Mykolenko. Branthwaite remains sidelined long-term with a thigh injury, so defensive options are somewhat limited and this prediction leaves O’Brien at center back. In midfield, Garner and Dewsbury Hall should once again form the double six. Further forward, Ndiaye and Grealish are expected to flank Alcaraz behind Barry, a front four that relies on fluid movement. Grealish has become the main creative reference point, Alcaraz brings direct runs, and Barry stretches the defense. With Röhl also unavailable in midfield, the alternatives are limited, so this predicted system seems logical, although Moyes may adjust one of these roles.
Chelsea – Everton Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five league matches, Chelsea leads the series with two wins to Everton’s one, plus two draws. During this period, Chelsea scored nine goals and Everton four, giving the Londoners a clear advantage in goal difference. The most recent match in April 2025 ended 1-0 for Chelsea, while the December 2024 encounter at Goodison Park remained goalless. Looking at 2024 and 2023, the picture is more volatile. Chelsea celebrated a clear 6-0 home win in 2024, but in 2023 Everton won 2-0 at Goodison and there was also a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge. Across these five games, neither team has recorded consecutive wins. The first halves were mostly cautious overall. In these five games, Everton did not score before the break and Chelsea were never behind at halftime. Four of the five first halves remained below 1.5 goals, indicating a cautious start, with decisive moments more often coming after the break. However, once the games open up, the picture can change significantly. Three consecutive matches from 2023 to 2024 saw at least two goals scored before the final whistle, including that 6-0 win in 2024, and in this series, at least two goals were scored in every second half, so the pace picked up noticeably after the break. Overall, the recent head-to-head record slightly favors Chelsea, but the margins are not large. Two draws and the narrow 1-0 win in April 2025 show how often these games are close, and Everton’s most important task is likely to be staying in the game until halftime, as the encounters usually change their rhythm later on.
