A team that has been unbeaten in 16 league games visits a club that is stuck at the bottom of the table with only two wins from eight home games, and it is precisely this tension that makes Friday evening at the Unipol Domus so interesting. On matchday 18 of Serie A, 14th-placed Cagliari welcomes title contenders AC Milan, with Fabio Pisacane’s side on 18 points and Massimiliano Allegri’s AC Milan in second place with 35 points. Cagliari is trying to keep the gap at the bottom, while Milan is chasing the top of the table. However, recent head-to-head matches suggest goals and risk-taking rather than classic home comfort, with the last two Serie A encounters ending 1-1 at San Siro and 3-3 in Sardinia. Nevertheless, Cagliari has never beaten AC Milan in the sample considered and regularly concedes many goals. Milan has thus largely fulfilled expectations as the stronger team, while Cagliari has mainly outperformed by keeping up on the scoreboard. Cagliari goes into this game on the back of a 2-1 win in Turin, with Prati and Kilicsoy playing decisive roles, and Zola praising Pisacane for giving the team structure again after a difficult start. AC Milan are coming off a convincing 3-0 home win against Verona, carried by Pulisic and a brace from Nkunku. Pulisic has already reached double digits in goals, extending the unbeaten run in the league, which is exceeding pre-season expectations and keeping Allegri’s team firmly in the title race.
- Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari
- Date and time: January 2, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 18)
Allegri’s team is unbeaten in the league and is in good form, thanks mainly to Pulisic and Nkunku, while Cagliari continues to score reliably under Pisacane. However, AC Milan has conceded goals more frequently recently, so even an early lead for the visitors could lead to both nets shaking in the end.
Cagliari form & record check
Cagliari go into this round in a quietly encouraging state of mind in all competitions, with only one defeat in their last five games, a Coppa Italia exit at Napoli on penalties after a 1-1 draw. Add to that victories against Roma (1-0) and Torino (2-1), as well as a 2-2 draw against Pisa, and this run of form underlines Zola’s praise for Pisacane’s work on the team’s identity after a difficult start. In Serie A, this balance is reflected in their position, with a goal difference of minus five, reminding us that structural problems have not disappeared. The tough 1-0 win against Roma at the Unipol Domus showed a compact team, while the 2-1 defeat at Atalanta revealed limitations when Cagliari had to catch up in the game. The 2-2 home draw against Pisa did not live up to expectations, but the 2-1 comeback in Turin without Mina pointed to growing resilience. Statistically, their recent games show a clear division between the halves, with Cagliari almost never taking control before the break, the first halves usually being tight and the team often falling behind. After the restart, however, they regularly score a goal, and so far no opponent has managed to beat them in this phase. They have scored in each of their last five games and have not lost any of their second halves. Cagliari are 14th in the table with 18 points, just two points behind Torino above them and only one point ahead of Parma, which keeps them in the thick of the mid-table battle. Pisacane has to manage this phase without Folorunsho, Felici, Luvumbo, and Belotti, so more responsibility falls on Prati, Mazzitelli, and Gaetano between the lines, while Kilicsoy, Esposito, Pavoletti, and Borrelli are called upon to capitalize on the late pressure.
Cagliari are expected to stick with Pisacane’s now familiar 3-5-1-1, in line with our predicted line-up. Caprile should start in goal, in front of a back three built around Luperto and Idrissi, while Zappa and Palestra are likely to provide width on the wings. When in possession, Gaetano will shuttle between the lines behind Kilicsoy. Within this structure, only minor role changes are to be expected; this is still a predicted lineup and not a confirmed selection. The absences mainly affect the midfield and attack, with Folorunsho out with a medial ligament problem, Luvumbo away on international duty, and Belotti and Felici both recovering from cruciate ligament injuries, leaving Pisacane with fewer options between the lines than usual. Mina is also unavailable, which should keep the defensive structure close to this projection rather than inviting experimentation.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
AC Milan starts the new year with arguably the most convincing league record in Italy. Since their opening defeat to Cremonese, Allegri’s team is unbeaten in 16 Serie A games and sits in second place with 35 points, one point behind Inter and one ahead of Napoli. In a title race that is packed within four points, this consistency is slightly above pre-season expectations. The last five games in all competitions paint a more mixed picture behind this unbeaten league headline, with a controlled 3-0 win over Verona, in which Pulisic scored first and Nkunku added two goals, underlining their potential. However, a 1-0 Coppa Italia exit at Lazio and a 2-0 Super Cup defeat to Napoli suggest the team still struggles to assert itself in tight knockout games. Statistically, clear patterns are emerging, with four of their last five games ending with at least two goals and Milan conceding in four of them, suggesting a team that is productive in attack but continues to allow chances. In Serie A, their attackers have repeatedly scored multiple goals, while mistakes without the ball mean that even strong attacking phases can turn into nervous finishes. Pulisic embodies the current upturn, his goal against Verona bringing him to 10 goals and 2 assists in 15 appearances this season, and since his arrival in Milan he has been involved in 50 goals, figures surpassed in Italy during that period by only one striker. Nkunku’s first Serie A brace adds another dimension and could be important while Rafael Leão’s fitness remains uncertain. In parallel, the club is trying to tie Maignan down to a new contract that would put him at the center of Allegri’s project, a sign that stability in goal is seen as crucial if the title challenge is to last. Gimenez’s continued absence following ankle surgery could slightly limit rotation in attack, although the strong league record has masked this issue so far.
AC Milan are expected to stick with Allegri’s now familiar 3-5-2 from our predicted line-up, with Maignan behind Tomori, De Winter, and Pavlović. Saelemaekers and Estupiñán are expected to provide width on the flanks, while Modric, Rabiot, and Loftus-Cheek form a highly technical midfield core. Nkunku and Pulisic are expected to start up front again, offering plenty of movement between the lines instead of a classic center forward, with transfer rumors surrounding Nkunku doing nothing to change that. However, this remains a predicted lineup and not a confirmed team, as Allegri could still make changes. Gimenez is still unavailable after ankle surgery, so there is no natural penalty area striker in the predicted team. Leão is listed as doubtful in recent reports, which suggests he will come off the bench, while Fofana or Ricci are considered the most straightforward options in midfield if adjustments are needed.
Cagliari – AC Milan Head-to-Head & Statistics
AC Milan have clearly had the upper hand in the last five meetings, with three wins and two draws. From 2023 to early 2024, they recorded three consecutive wins, each by at least two goals, including a 4-1 victory in the 2024 Coppa Italia round of 16 that ended Cagliari’s participation in the cup. This streak then turned into a 3-3 draw in 2024, followed by a 1-1 draw in January 2025. These encounters were remarkably open, with the overall score over the five games standing at 16-7 in favor of AC Milan, which means an average of more than four goals per game. Every encounter exceeded the two-goal mark, and between 2023 and 2024 there were four consecutive games with at least four goals, with both sides scoring in all five games, meaning there were no clean sheets. In terms of the flow of the game, AC Milan usually takes control early on, leading at halftime in most of these duels, while Cagliari has never gone into the break with a lead and has often had to chase the game. The second halves tend to be even more open, with both teams scoring regularly and Cagliari conceding goals after the break in each of the five encounters. The venue played a role to a certain extent, as all three of AC Milan’s wins came at home, while Cagliari’s best results were a 3-3 draw in front of their home crowd in 2024 and a 1-1 draw at AC Milan in January 2025. Pisacane’s team may have gradually adapted to this opponent, as the gap between clear defeats and two competitive, evenly matched duels has narrowed.
