FC Burnley vs. FC Liverpool
Liverpool sits atop the table after three perfect wins, while Burnley ranks 14th after its return to the Premier League and is tied with Manchester City, illustrating the tight situation in the lower midfield. On Sunday afternoon, Scott Parker’s pragmatic team welcomes the unbeaten Reds for a duel that promises to be exciting despite the clear balance of power. The Clarets showed plenty of fighting spirit in their dramatic 3-2 defeat to Manchester United, with goals from Foster and Anthony, before a penalty in the 90th minute sealed their defeat. Arne Slot, on the other hand, can look back on a perfect record, with Liverpool most recently narrowly defeating Arsenal 1-0 thanks to a late goal from Szoboszlai. History speaks for itself: Liverpool have won all five of their most recent encounters with Burnley, never conceding a defeat at halftime and always scoring at least once. Record signing Isak is being carefully integrated after his £100 million transfer, while Wirtz is still waiting for his first goal in a Liverpool shirt.
- Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley
- Date and time: 14.09.2025, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 4)
Burnley form & record check
As expected, FC Burnley has been inconsistent since returning to the Premier League. Their 14th place in the table with three points after three matchdays is exactly what you would expect from a newly promoted team, with the Clarets only separated by equal points from Manchester City above and Brentford below. Their recent form reveals the typical ups and downs: A clear 3-0 defeat at Tottenham on the opening day was followed by a convincing 2-0 home win against Sunderland and, most recently, a narrow 3-2 defeat at Manchester United. At Old Trafford, Burnley led 2-1 thanks to goals from Foster and Anthony, before a late penalty from Bruno Fernandes sealed the defeat. The performance was quite appealing, even if the five yellow cards in the closing stages highlighted the frustration at the late goal. Cullen had previously scored an unfortunate own goal. The Clarets’ offensive output is striking: in all five of their most recent games, more than 1.5 goals were scored, and four of the five games saw more than 2.5 goals. Burnley themselves have scored in four of their last five games, but have conceded just as often. Parker has several players unavailable. Amdouni is out indefinitely after tearing his cruciate ligament, while Beyer and Roberts could return from injury in time. Humphreys’ thigh problems remain a uncertainty. The loss of former captain Brownhill, who recently moved to Saudi Arabia, has already been absorbed.
Scott Parker is expected to field his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation, which has proven stable in the first few weeks of the season. The Clarets will rely on their typical strengths in set pieces and aerial battles. Parker will continue to be without several key players. The loss of Amdouni is particularly significant, as the Swiss player will be out indefinitely with a cruciate ligament rupture. Injuries to Beyer, Humphreys, and Roberts also limit tactical options, with Beyer and Roberts not expected to return until mid-September. In the predicted line-up, Dúbravka is likely to be in goal, while the back four could consist of Walker, Ekdal, Estève, and Hartman. Cullen and Ugochukwu are set to play in defensive midfield, with Bruun Larsen, Hannibal, and Anthony providing creative impetus behind them. Foster would then operate as the lone striker.
Liverpool Form & Record Check
Liverpool currently sit atop the Premier League with nine points from three games and a flawless start under Arne Slot. The Reds are in impressive form, yet to taste defeat and convincing both offensively and defensively. The recent 1-0 win against Arsenal just under two weeks ago underlined the quality of the team. Szoboszlai scored the decisive goal in the 83rd minute after Liverpool had controlled the game for long periods. Their offensive consistency is particularly striking: Liverpool have scored in all of their games so far, which is also reflected in the fact that they have scored in 100% of their last five games. At the same time, they have conceded at least one goal in four of their last five games, which indicates a certain defensive vulnerability. Record signing Alexander Isak from Deadline Day is still being carefully integrated. Slot made it clear that the £170 million new signing could initially come off the bench as he lacked preparation. With Salah continuing to find the net and Ekitike considered a dangerous striker, Liverpool still have plenty of attacking options. Their form over the last five games shows three wins and two draws. This consistency makes them clear favorites, even if Wirtz still needs time to adapt to the Premier League.
Coach Arne Slot is likely to field Liverpool in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation. The prediction sees Alisson in goal, while the defense is likely to consist of van Dijk and Konaté in central defense and Frimpong and Kerkez at full-back. In midfield, Endo and Mac Allister could form the double six. In attack, the high-caliber trio of Salah, Wirtz, and Gakpo are expected to play behind striker Ekitiké. It is noteworthy that new signing Isak will likely start on the bench, as Slot has already announced that he will carefully integrate the record transfer after his delayed start to the season. Chiesa is unavailable due to a lack of eligibility in the Champions League, while Bajcetic is out with a thigh injury. The predicted lineup reflects Slot’s philosophy of relying on proven players while gradually integrating new signings.
H2H Burnley – Liverpool Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record between Burnley and Liverpool paints a clear picture: Burnley has never won in the last five meetings, with Liverpool winning all five encounters between 2021 and February 2024. Interestingly, the games usually follow a similar pattern. Liverpool takes an early lead and practically never concedes goals in the first half, while Burnley regularly finds itself behind at halftime. The most recent encounter in February 2024 ended 3-1 in Liverpool’s favor. Liverpool had also won 2-0 in December 2023. The goal difference in the last five games speaks for itself, with 11:1 in favor of the Reds. One might think that Burnley can keep up better in the second half. In fact, the team did not concede any further goals after the break in four of the five encounters. Liverpool, on the other hand, usually scores early and then skillfully manages the result.
The over 2.5 goals tip at 1.54 cleverly exploits the fact that the market correctly assesses the balance of power with 1.3 for a Liverpool win, but underestimates the expected goal dynamic. Burnley have proven in recent weeks that they can make their mark even against stronger opponents such as Manchester United, while they will be missing three regulars in defense. With Beyer, Humphreys, and Roberts out, Scott Parker is missing important defensive options, which plays into the hands of Salah and the Liverpool offense. Interestingly, both teams show an 80 percent tendency to score over 1.5 goals, which creates the basis for higher goal yields. The Both Teams to Score: Yes tip at 1.91 takes into account that Liverpool have conceded goals in four of their last five games despite their quality, while Burnley’s attack, led by the lively Anthony, can be quite dangerous. The absence of Jones also weakens Liverpool’s defensive stability. As a riskier alternative, the second half tip at 3.4 is tempting, betting that Isak’s possible appearance as a substitute and Burnley’s waning strength could lead to late goals.
