A clash between a relegation battle and quiet European hopes awaits at Turf Moor when Burnley host Everton in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon. Scott Parker’s team is in 19th place with 11 points, two points behind West Ham and well ahead of bottom-placed Wolves, while David Moyes’ Everton is in 10th place with 24 points and is in a crowded midfield with Brighton and Newcastle, which could still lead to European places. Burnley has at least stopped a run of seven defeats, thanks to Armando Broja’s late equalizer at Bournemouth, even if their league form continues to fall short of expectations and the relegation outlook looks bleak. Everton are coming off a narrow home defeat to Arsenal, but they bring a largely settled squad and a strong away record under Moyes, having won four of the last five direct encounters, including a 1-0 victory in April 2024. Both clubs are hampered by Africa Cup of Nations call-ups and injuries, with Burnley missing Foster and Hannibal and Everton without Ndiaye, Gueye, and Branthwaite.
- Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley
- Date and time: December 27, 2025, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 18)
Burnley’s run of seven games without a win, the AFCON-related absences, further suspensions and the relegation situation make the market’s verdict seem rather flattering and essentially correspond to the assessments of many experts. At the same time, the recent goals from Broja and Flemming show that Burnley are dangerous enough to seriously trouble Everton’s defense.
Burnley form & record check
Burnley reaches Christmas second from bottom in the Premier League with 11 points, two behind West Ham and with a comfortable-looking nine-point lead over bottom-placed Wolves. That sounds like a cushion, but the context is harsh, as Optas’ supercomputer predicts Burnley will finish the season with only around 30 points, which would still mean relegation, so every game, starting with Everton at Turf Moor, already carries almost existential significance. Their recent league record is clear: four consecutive defeats against Brentford, Crystal Palace, Newcastle, and Fulham, followed by a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, where Broja’s header in stoppage time ended a seven-game losing streak and showed some fighting spirit. At the same time, conceding another early goal and relying on a late comeback highlights how often Burnley find themselves chasing games rather than controlling them from the start. In their last five league games, Burnley have not led at halftime once and have won neither the first half nor the game, losing 80% of those games and conceding at least two goals in 80% of them. Burnley scored in four of the five games but conceded in all of them, suggesting an attack that is competitive while the defense remains alarmingly porous. Personnel problems further color this form, with center backs Humphreys and Beyer and defenders Roberts and Tuanzebe missing, while Hannibal is suspended and forwards Foster and Amdouni are unavailable. The constant changes may be damaging to the team’s cohesion, so Flemming’s five league goals since matchday nine, all away from home, and Broja’s late impact at Bournemouth are rare positives that Parker can build on.
Burnley are likely to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, so our predicted starting XI sees Dubravka in goal, a back four of Walker, Worrall, Ekdal, and Lucas Pires in front of them, with Ugochukwu and Cullen forming the deeper midfield pair, while Bruun Larsen, Flemming, and Anthony Broja provide support in attack. This is an expected lineup and has not yet been confirmed. Defensive options are limited, with Beyer, Tuanzebe, Humphreys, and Roberts all out, so continuity looks likely for Worrall and Ekdal in defense, while Esteve is likely to be brought on from the bench after his injury. Further forward, Foster and Tuanzebe are away at the Africa Cup of Nations, Amdouni is injured and Hannibal remains suspended, so our predicted formation relies on Flemming as a more attacking midfielder behind Broja.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton travels to Turf Moor with a smoldering volatility in the league, but is in 10th place with 24 points, level with Brighton above them and only one point ahead of Newcastle, so the gap between looking towards Europe and falling back is vanishingly small. A goal difference of minus 2 underscores a team that balances resilience and weaknesses and is now far removed from the relegation fears of previous seasons. Recent league games have been inconsistent, with a 4-1 home defeat to Newcastle exposing defensive gaps, to which Everton responded with a 1-0 away win at Bournemouth and a confident 3-0 home win against Nottingham Forest. This mini-revival stalled with a straightforward 2-0 defeat at Chelsea and a narrow 1-0 defeat to Arsenal at Hill Dickinson Stadium, where there was a feeling that Barry had been fouled when he missed a penalty. Interestingly, Everton’s profile is currently extreme, with only wins or losses in their last five league games and no draws, and they have not lost a second half in this series, suggesting better fitness or adjustments during the game. Slow starts, rather than overall structure, may be costing points, as most second halves remain low-scoring. In terms of personnel, Moyes’ options are stable but not complete, with Branthwaite and Coleman still missing, while Gueye and Ndiaye are away at the Africa Cup of Nations, meaning aggression in midfield and direct attacks are dwindling. Keane’s recent consistency, evident in strong fantasy metrics, has helped stabilize the defense, and Grealish’s 30 chances created underscore why Everton still seem to be just a moment away in close contests.
Everton are expected to stick with the predicted 4-2-3-1 under Moyes, with Pickford behind a back four of Patterson, Tarkowski, Keane, and Mykolenko. Iroegbunam and Garner could anchor the midfield, allowing McNeil, Alcaraz, and Grealish to support Barry as a mobile reference point. This system would once again prioritize compact central protection and quick transitions through Grealish and McNeil. Key absences shape this potential starting lineup, Branthwaite and Coleman remain sidelined with thigh problems, while Gueye and Ndiaye are away at the Africa Cup of Nations and Dewsbury-Hall is still unavailable. That leaves Keane as the likely partner for Tarkowski and puts additional creative responsibility on Grealish, who has already created 30 chances in the league this season, while Beto is an option off the bench if more presence is needed in the box.
Burnley – Everton Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five meetings between Burnley FC and Everton FC, Everton leads the series with four wins to one, with no draws. The series runs from 2021 to 2024, and Everton are on a run of three consecutive wins in all competitions, with Burnley’s only success in that period coming in 2022, a 3-2 home win that now seems a distant memory in this fixture. Everton’s advantage is based on consistent goal scoring, they have scored in all five games and scored a total of eleven goals, while Burnley has only scored four. Burnley has conceded goals in every match and has not scored in the last three games, four of the five games ended with at least two goals, with only one, the 2024 match, falling below that mark, with a 1-0 result. Home advantage has had little impact on the record, with Everton perfect at Goodison Park in this sample, winning three out of three in 2021, 2023, and 2024 in the league and cup combined. At Turf Moor, the picture is somewhat mixed, with Burnley’s 3-2 win in 2022 quickly offset by Everton’s 2-0 league win in 2023, and the 3-0 win in the League Cup in 2023 also spelling the end for Burnley. Interestingly, the pattern of these five games suggests that Everton tend to start faster and control the first half, while Burnley often chase the game. Everton led at halftime in four of the encounters and Burnley never led at the break. There was also a phase of three games with at least two goals in the second half, in which this duel often opened up later on.
