A struggling traditional club in the relegation battle, an opponent with momentum from recent results, and a manager whose position is under threat – the clash between Burnley and Crystal Palace at Turf Moor is about much more than just three points. Burnley are 19th in the Premier League with 10 points and are fighting for survival, while Crystal Palace are ninth with 20 points and are clear favorites. However, both teams come into this game on the back of recent disappointments: Burnley lost 3-1 at Brentford, conceding three late goals and once again showing their weaknesses away from home, while Palace lost 2-1 to Manchester United, despite Mateta giving the Londoners the lead from the penalty spot. Burnley coach Scott Parker in particular is feeling the pressure after four defeats in five league games. The head-to-head record also favors the visitors, with Palace winning the last two encounters convincingly, most recently 3-0 in February 2024. Overall, the Clarets have had noticeable problems against the Eagles in recent years. Tactically, Burnley will probably play much more compactly and defensively given their precarious situation, but personnel limitations and the much-discussed lack of quality in the squad set narrow limits on this plan. Despite a thin squad, especially on the right side of defense, and a lack of major summer investments, Palace appears to be more stable overall.
- Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley
- Date and time: 03.12.2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 14)
From a betting perspective, this match pits a host team threatened with relegation and with a shaky defense against a Palace team that is favored away from home but not always mentally stable. Burnley concedes early goals in many games and has been behind at halftime in four of its last five games, which favors live betting against Burnley leading at halftime. Palace, on the other hand, has lost two games despite leading and shows vulnerabilities, especially after the break. At the same time, the first halves of four of the Londoners’ last five games have been very low-scoring, with under 1.5 goals at halftime. A direct comparison confirms the slight dominance of the visitors, with two clear wins without conceding a goal in recent encounters, but the profile of both teams does not necessarily point to a goal fest.
Burnley form & record check
The situation at Burnley FC is precarious. With 10 points from 13 games, the club is in 19th place and only one point ahead of the relegation zone. Their form is clearly on the decline with four defeats in a row, most recently a 3-1 loss at Brentford. The team concedes goals in almost every game, often before the break, and Burnley has been behind at halftime in four of their last five games. The match in Brentford in particular highlights the structural problems: after pulling one back, the defense completely collapsed in the final minutes, with two late goals, one of them in stoppage time, sealing the defeat. Hannibal’s simulation warning and subsequent substitution also point to mental and disciplinary issues. The personnel situation is tense: Beyer, Roberts, and especially Amdouni are out with injuries, with Amdouni out until April with a cruciate ligament rupture. In addition, Tuanzebe, Foster, and Hannibal are likely to be called up for the Africa Cup of Nations in December, which will put additional strain on the already thin personnel resources. Burnley scores regularly, but its chronically vulnerable defense repeatedly leads to avoidable defeats. With only one point separating them from the relegation zone, the pressure on coach Scott Parker is growing, and his future is already being openly discussed. In the short term, Burnley needs a much more stable defense, clear alternatives for the injured offensive players, and more precise mental and tactical guidelines to give the club a realistic chance in the relegation battle.
Scott Parker is likely to stick with his usual 4-2-3-1 formation at Burnley FC. Dúbravka is expected to start in goal, with a back four of Walker, Tuanzebe, Estève, and Hartman in front of him. In defensive midfield, the duo of Florentino and Cullen could provide cover, with Tchaouna, Flemming, and Foster occupying the attacking half-spaces in front of them and Broja likely to be the lone striker. Parker is severely limited in terms of personnel, with Amdouni out until April with a cruciate ligament rupture and Roberts and Beyer also missing through injury. Amdouni’s long-term absence is hitting the team particularly hard, with his absence contributing significantly to the ongoing goal drought of recent weeks.
Crystal Palace Form & Record Check
Crystal Palace has shown a clear pattern of two faces this season. The team is solidly in mid-table with 20 points, but its recent form is worrying, with two defeats in a row, both times squandering a lead. This points to mental fragility and difficulties in holding on to leads. The course of many games is characteristic: the first half is usually very controlled with little offensive threat and few goals conceded, with four of the last five games seeing under 1.5 goals at halftime. After the break, however, the game becomes much more open, with more chances and goals on both sides, defensive instability and waning concentration becoming more apparent. Examples of this can be seen in the games against Manchester United and Strasbourg, in both of which Palace led at half-time but still lost in the end, suggesting deficiencies in half-time adjustments, game management, and mental robustness after the break. The situation is exacerbated by squad issues: the right side with Muñoz is very stable, and he has played every minute of the league so far, but it is precisely this constant strain without any real rotation options that carries risks. There are no alternatives in defensive midfield, Doucouré and Ahamada are not eligible to play in the Conference League, and Riad is out, leaving Glasner with little room for maneuver in tight situations. Added to this are stalled contract talks with Mateta, who nevertheless plays a central role in the team. Against this backdrop, Oliver Glasner is understandably calling for reinforcements, especially in the winter, because the combination of a thin squad, a lack of depth in the center, and mental problems in tight games makes meaningful transfers almost a necessity. In the short term, Palace remains dangerous against weaker defenses thanks to Mateta, but the team is vulnerable against physically strong and high-pressing opponents, especially in the second half. Better adjustments during the break, clever load management through rotation, and greater mental stability at the end of the game will therefore be crucial.
Oliver Glasner is also expected to stick with the 3-4-2-1 system. Richards, Lacroix, and Guehi will form the back three, with Muñoz on the right and Mitchell on the left providing width. Wharton and Lerma are likely to provide stability and balance in defensive midfield, with Sarr and Pino expected to provide creative support behind the striker. In attack, there is every indication that Mateta will start as center forward despite ongoing contract talks. Riad is still out with a cruciate ligament rupture, which is why Glasner will have to rely on his tried and tested defensive players.
Burnley – Crystal Palace Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record of the last five meetings clearly favors Crystal Palace. The Londoners remained unbeaten during this period, with two wins and three draws, including the two most recent victories in February and November 2024. In these last two encounters, Palace won 3-0 and 2-0 without conceding a goal. At least two goals were scored in all five games, but at the same time, the second half was rather subdued, with four of the five games seeing fewer than 1.5 goals scored. Burnley’s last win against Palace dates back to February 2021, when the Clarets won 3-0 away. The only draw in which Burnley managed to score at home was a 3-3 draw in November 2021. Overall, Palace has scored in four of the last five direct encounters and won the last one convincingly. Form and defense currently favor the visitors from London.
