Important Facts
- Arsenal travels as league leaders with 64 points and a five-point lead; Brighton are in 11th place with 37 points and want to confirm their recent upturn in form.
- Brighton have recently looked more stable than their position in the table suggests: a 2-0 win at Brentford was followed by a 2-1 win against Forest, with goals from Gomez and Welbeck.
- Despite their 3-0 win at Liverpool in the FA Cup, Brighton’s second halves have been problematic; they have failed to score after the break in their last five competitive games.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in nine league games and have scored in each of their last five competitive games; at the same time, they have conceded goals in four of their last five games.
- Brighton’s squad is depleted by the long-term absences of center back Webster and striker Tzimas, while Arsenal are assessing Rice and Ødegaard and Merino remains sidelined.
- The bookmakers favor Arsenal to win away at around 1.7; “Both teams to score” is backed up by Arsenal’s run of conceding goals and Welbeck’s 11 goals this season.
A five-point lead at the top of the table, plus an opponent who has just picked themselves up with two league wins in a row – it’s this combination that makes Wednesday evening at the Amex Stadium so interesting. Brighton go into the 29th matchday of the Premier League in 11th place with 37 points and are looking to confirm their slight upturn in form, while Mikel Arteta’s side travel to the Amex Stadium as league leaders with 64 points, five points ahead of Manchester City. Both teams are coming off 2-1 wins on Sunday.
- Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton
- Date and time: March 4, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (matchday 29)
Nevertheless, Welbeck has just extended his contract and continues to find his moments, while Arsenal have conceded goals in four of their last five games in all competitions – which keeps “Both teams to score: Yes” in play. With Brighton missing Webster and Tzimas, Arsenal’s advantage from set pieces could also lead to a two-goal lead from controlled phases.
Brighton Form & Record Check
Brighton’s recent league performances have been more stable than the table suggests. The 2-0 win at Brentford was followed by a 2-1 home win against Nottingham Forest, with Gomez scoring early and Welbeck finishing off an attack started by Hinshelwood. These results were necessary after a slight dip in form, which included a 1-0 home defeat to Crystal Palace and a 1-0 loss at Aston Villa. The 3-0 defeat at Liverpool in the FA Cup was a reminder of how big the gap can be when the pressing is overcome and Brighton has to defend deep for long periods.
In the last five competitive games, the second halves have been a particular problem, with the team failing to score after the break and rarely able to regain momentum once the momentum shifted against them. That’s exactly why this visit from Arsenal feels like a test of nerves as well as quality. Brighton are only two points behind Bournemouth above them and level on points with Sunderland behind them, so the next step is still possible, but the squad has been noticeably depleted by the long-term absences of Webster and Tzimas. Fabian Hürzeler will probably have to rely on Groß and O’Riley to circulate the ball quickly enough to get Mitoma into dangerous areas.
Fabian Hürzeler is likely to stick with his usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Verbruggen behind a back four of Veltman, van Hecke, Dunk, and Kadıoğlu. The double six with Wieffer and Groß seems to work best when it comes to control and second balls, allowing Brighton to build up through the center and still find the wings early on once the pressing is overcome. Further up front, Minteh and Mitoma should provide direct width, with Hinshelwood acting as the link player behind Welbeck, who has been in really good form in front of goal recently. Webster is out long term, so depth in central defense is thin, and Tzimas is also unavailable. Ayari has returned to training and could be an option on the bench if he gets the green light in time.
Arsenal Form & Record Check
Arsenal’s 2-1 win over Chelsea was pretty typical of their current form: not always pretty to watch, but ruthlessly effective. Saliba’s opener and Timber’s winner came from their familiar stranglehold on space and set pieces, although an own goal by Hincapié kept the game exciting. Add to that the 4-1 win in the derby at Tottenham, a game that showed how quickly Arsenal strike when an opponent opens up at the back. The two league draws in this five-game run, the 1-1 at Brentford and the 2-2 at Wolves, show where Mikel Arteta needs to control the rhythm of the game even better, especially when they lose control in the closing stages. Nevertheless, Arsenal have scored in each of their last five competitive games, and they almost always have enough options to turn a game around, whether it’s Saka breaking through on the wing or Gyökeres and Havertz providing very different reference points up front. However, the line-up could determine how effective Arsenal are against Brighton’s pressing. Rice had to come off against Chelsea and is being assessed, Ødegaard was rested with knee problems, and such absences would change the balance alongside Zubimendi and Nørgaard. Whites’ possible return would be a plus, Raya should be fit to play, but as long as Merino remains sidelined, the scope for rotation is more limited than usual.
Mikel Arteta is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1, with Raya behind Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, and Hincapié. In this prediction, Zubimendi and Nørgaard form the double six to keep the build-up clean and secure transitions, allowing Eze to operate between the lines. Saka will serve as an outlet on the right, Trossard will move in from the left, and Gyökeres will lead the line as the clear target player. The catch is fitness in midfield. Rice is still being assessed after his limping exit against Chelsea, and Ødegaard’s knee problem has kept him out recently, so one of the two could force a change at short notice, perhaps with Rice alongside Zubimendi and Ødegaard in the number ten role. Merino remains out after foot surgery, and Dowman is still missing with ankle problems. White could return after his knock to stabilize the defense.
Brighton – Arsenal Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five head-to-head matches have tended to favor Arsenal, with Brighton failing to win any of them. In December 2025, Arsenal narrowly won 2-1 in the league, and two months earlier, in October 2025, they won 2-0 in the League Cup. Before that, there were two consecutive league draws, a 1-1 draw at the Amex in 2025 and a 1-1 draw at the Emirates in 2024. It is striking how close the early stages of the games usually were, with less than 1.5 goals scored in the first half in all five games. Nevertheless, Arsenal often set the tone and won the first half in three consecutive matches. Overall, there were also fewer than 3.5 goals in this phase, which is in line with Arsenal’s 3-0 win at the Amex in 2024, which sounds like a game that was decided more by control and individual moments.
