New Year’s Eve at Brentford Community Stadium feels more like a minor turning point than a normal league game, as Keith Andrews’ Brentford, in ninth place with 26 points, host Thomas Frank’s Tottenham, who are in 13th place with 25 points after similarly inconsistent league performances, in Round 19 of the Premier League. It’s Frank’s first return to his old home since leaving Brentford in the summer, and that story alone adds extra spice to an already finely balanced London derby. Tottenham have dominated this fixture in the league so far, with four wins and a draw from five meetings, including a 2-0 home win 24 days ago. Brentford have just beaten Bournemouth 4-1 in the league, led by a hat-trick from Golden Boot contender Igor Thiago, while Spurs, inconsistent in the league throughout the season, finally found their form with Archie Gray’s winner at Crystal Palace after a period of underperformance. This mid-table Premier League clash could shape the second half of both seasons, with a win bringing Brentford closer to what many consider an ambitious goal of European qualification, while a defeat could drag Spurs back into the scramble below them. Many bookmakers – as well as expert Alan Shearer – agree.
- Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London
- Date and time: January 1, 2026, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 19)
A Brentford win, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score all add up to the same picture. Interestingly, the market makes Brentford only slight favorites at around 2.2, but Igor Thiago, who is chasing Haaland in the scoring charts, Schade’s hat trick and Kayode’s dangerous throw-ins, plus Tottenham’s weakened midfield and shaky defense, suggest a bigger lead for the Bees and a wild, open game in which Richarlison continues to pose a constant threat.
Brentford Form & Record Check
Brentford travels to Tottenham in relatively good Premier League form, sitting in ninth place with 26 points. They are just two points behind Everton above them and level on points with Newcastle in a tight mid-table. After a dip in form in early December, consecutive league wins at Wolves (2-0) and at home to Bournemouth (4-1) have lifted spirits considerably. The 4-1 win over Bournemouth, carried by a ruthless hat-trick from Schade and clever link-up play from Igor Thiago, showed Brentford at their most fluid, while the 2-0 win at Wolves was more controlled than spectacular but provided a rare clean sheet. On the other hand, a 2-0 defeat at Tottenham, a 1-1 home draw against Leeds, and a 2-0 defeat at Manchester City in the League Cup underscore their ongoing inconsistency. Across all competitions, their recent games have followed a clear pattern, with each of the last five producing at least two goals, but four of them ending under 2.5, meaning games are often decided by fine margins. Brentford have conceded in most of these encounters, suggesting that the balance between attacking ambition and defensive stability has not yet been fully established. Interestingly, much of the league threat comes through Igor Thiago, who is second in the Golden Boot standings with 11 goals and one assist and was Premier League Player of the Month in November. Schade’s hat trick against Bournemouth points to a valuable second goalscorer, an offensive output that is already above what many had expected of this attack. Defensively, Henderson’s reliability in midfield and Kayode’s energy and long throw-ins from the right side of defense have led to both being considered overperforming signings in the league. Alan Shearer praised Brentford’s aggressive approach under Andrews and predicted a win against Tottenham. With Onyeka away on international duty and creative options such as Dasilva and Carvalho injured, maintaining this level will test the depth of a squad that continues to have its sights set on European places.
For the home game against Tottenham, Brentford are expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation from our predicted starting XI, although nothing has been confirmed yet. Kelleher should continue in goal, in front of Kayode, Collins, Ajer, and Henry, with Kayode’s long throw-ins and athleticism on the right likely to be important again. Further forward, Schade, Jensen, and Lewis-Potter are expected to support Thiago, whose 11 league goals keep him close behind Haaland. In midfield, we continue to see Janelt alongside Henderson in a double six, especially with Onyeka away on international duty and Dasilva, Milambo, and Carvalho all unavailable. Henderson has hardly missed a league game and brings the control for which Andrews’ aggressive team has been praised. On the wings, Ouattara or Nelson could once again be used as super-sub rather than starters, depending on how the game unfolds.
Tottenham Form & Record Check
Tottenham travel to West London in better shape than they were two weeks ago, but their position in the table still paints a sobering picture. They are 13th in the table with 25 points, one point behind Fulham and only ahead of Brighton on goal difference. For the reigning Europa League champions, who finished 17th last season, this is modest progress at best, even if three wins in their last five games in all competitions suggest a slight recovery. In the league, they have picked up seven points from their last five games, but the picture remains mixed. The heavy 3-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest exposed the familiar fragility when Spurs are pushed high up the pitch and have to defend on the counter, while the 2-1 defeat to Liverpool was closer, although the red cards for Romero and Simons once again highlighted disciplinary issues. They responded with a tough 1-0 win at Crystal Palace and managed the game better once they took the lead. December actually started well for Spurs, beating Brentford 2-0 at home and then knocking Slavia Praha out of the Champions League 3-0, both clean sheet performances built on compact pressing and neat combinations from Kudus, Xavi Simons, and Richarlison. Since then, the pattern has fluctuated between precise and sloppy, with four of their last five games producing more than 1.5 goals in total. Data suggests a team that continues to lack control, with none of their last five games in any competition ending in a draw, and in four of those they scored, with 80% featuring quiet first halves and the games mostly opening up after the break. Richarlison, with seven league goals, remains the main threat, while the absences of Maddison, Kulusevski, Bissouma, and Sarr have significantly weakened creativity and rhythm.
Tottenham are expected to stick with Thomas Frank’s now familiar 4-2-3-1 at Brentford, in our predicted line-up built around Vicario behind a back four of Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, and Davies. Romero returns from suspension to complement Van de Ven, while Davies is expected to continue on the left in Udogie’s absence, which should give this flank a little more security against Brentford’s counter-attacking play. In midfield, we see Palhinha and Gray as a double six, with Palhinha providing cover and Gray given the freedom to break lines after his winning goal against Palace. Ahead of them, we expect Kudus, Simons, and Odobert to support center forward Richarlison, who is currently Spurs’ leading scorer in the league. Key absences mark this possible starting eleven, with Bissouma and Sarr away on international duty, and Maddison, Kulusevski, Solanke, and Udogie still unavailable due to injury.
Brentford – Tottenham Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five meetings since 2023, Tottenham have dominated the record, with four wins and one draw, scoring twelve goals and conceding five. They have beaten Brentford in every home game in this series and have remained unbeaten on both trips to West London, so the venue has not really changed the balance of this duel so far. This series began with a 2-2 draw in 2023, after which Tottenham took over with four consecutive wins. They prevailed in a narrow 3-2 win in 2024 and followed that up with another 3-1 home win in the same year. In February 2025, they won 2-0 at Brentford, and in December 2025, they added a controlled 2-0 home win. The games were open overall, with seventeen goals in five encounters, averaging 3.4, with more than 1.5 goals scored in regular time each time, and between 2023 and 2024, the first three duels each exceeded 3.5. Tottenham scored at least twice in every match, while Brentford scored in only three of the five encounters. The timing of the goals suggests a familiar pattern, with Tottenham scoring before halftime in most of these encounters and Brentford conceding early in four of five games, yet the second half usually tightens up and typically yields under 1.5 goals. Psychologically, Tottenham currently has a clear advantage, with five consecutive games scoring at least two goals and no losses in that streak. Brentford, on the other hand, conceded goals in all five games, and their best run was a three-game streak with goals scored until 2024. Keith Andrews may focus on defensive stability first to eventually break this rhythm.
