Brentford’s new defensive stability meets Burnley’s shaky defense, and that’s exactly what makes this matchup at Brentford Community Stadium so exciting. The hosts are in 13th place with 16 points, Burnley are in 19th place with 10 points, and both are coming off a run of two wins and a narrow defeat. The trend is particularly exciting: Brentford have conceded only four defensive errors that led directly to chances in 12 league games, compared to 28 over the entire previous season. Burnley, on the other hand, concedes an average of around 17.3 shots per game, putting them at the bottom of the league in this category, which clearly points to structural problems without the ball. In a direct comparison, the record in recent years is balanced, with Burnley winning three of the last five matches, but Brentford dominating after the break: In all five of their most recent meetings, the Bees have scored in the second half and won four times after the break. Burnley won the last match in March 2024 2-1, while Brentford won 3-0 in October 2023. In terms of personnel, Brentford will continue to be without Fábio Carvalho, whose cruciate ligament rupture means the end of the season and deprives coach Keith Andrews of an important creative option. Overall, however, the improved defense clearly favors the hosts. Despite Scott Parker’s words of praise, Burnley can hardly point to any positive defensive indicators, and the high number of shots conceded remains a warning sign. Tactically, Brentford will focus on controlling the game and playing to their known strengths after the break, with late goals a recurring pattern. Burnley must close down the space much better and reduce the number of shots on goal, presumably focusing on set pieces and counterattacks as their most important weapons. From a betting perspective, there is a slight but clear advantage for Brentford, with results such as a Brentford home win or a draw appearing more likely than an away win. Due to Burnley’s defensive problems, markets such as Over 2.5 goals or Both teams to score are interesting. Specific options are Brentford to win, usually with rather low odds, or alternatively a bet on over 2.5 goals or both teams to score as plausible sporting risks. Regardless of this, all bets should always be in line with your own risk appetite, the current odds, and the latest team news with lineups, suspensions, and weather, as the situation can still change before kickoff.
- Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London
- Date and time: November 29, 2025, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 13)
The betting recommendations are based primarily on the discrepancy between Brentford’s positive trend and Burnley’s ongoing deficits. Brentford is the clear favorite with odds of around 1.5. The Bees have won their last two competitive games, impressing with strong home performances such as the 3-2 win against Liverpool and the 3-1 win against Newcastle. Burnley, on the other hand, are in a negative streak with three consecutive defeats and continue to concede around 17.3 shots per 90 minutes, which impressively highlights their defensive problems. It is statistically striking that Burnley have fallen behind before halftime in around 80% of their recent games. At the same time, Brentford has also conceded goals in around 80% of its last games, while Burnley has at least scored in its last two matches. Overall, this suggests value in the Both Teams to Score market. Carvalho’s injury weakens Brentford in the long term, as they are missing a strong player for ball control and creativity, but manager Parker emphasizes “massive progress” on the part of their opponents Burnley, which somewhat relativizes the expectation of a complete collapse on the part of the Clarets. Conservatively, the tip Brentford wins is a good bet, based on form and home strength. With medium risk, the market Both teams to score comes into question, as both defenses are vulnerable. For higher risk but potentially attractive value, you can consider the double chance Burnley with a draw or win at odds of around 3.0, based on Burnley’s recent narrow defeats with an average goal difference of around 1.7 and Brentford’s occasional defensive lapses.
Brentford Form & Record Check
Brentford is currently difficult to predict, but is solidly in 13th place with 16 points. In the last five league games, there have been two wins and no draws, so the games usually go clearly one way or the other and often produce several goals. Brentford recently lost 2-1 in Brighton, despite Igor Thiago initially taking the lead with a penalty. In the closing stages, the team conceded two goals and also missed a penalty in stoppage time, again by Thiago, whose attempt was saved by Bart Verbruggen. Such scenes cost valuable points in the tight mid-table. Keith Andrews’ team is much more dangerous at home, as the 3-2 win against Liverpool and the 3-1 win against Newcastle have impressively demonstrated. Away from home, however, they have struggled, as evidenced by their 2-0 defeat at Crystal Palace. Defensively, however, there has been clear progress, with only four mistakes leading directly to chances in twelve league games, compared to 28 in the whole of last year. This points to significantly greater tactical stability, even if this is not yet consistently reflected in the results. The injury to Fábio Carvalho, whose cruciate ligament rupture means he will be out for a long time, weighs heavily, and together with Antoni Milambo’s long-term injury, the team is missing creative players who could give structure to their offensive play. Igor Thiago is currently the most important goal threat, which creates a certain dependency. Dango Ouattara brings pace and depth, but could be missing in December for the Africa Cup of Nations. Overall, Brentford needs more consistency and additional ideas in the final third to translate its strong home form and improved defense into a steady points haul, especially away from home.
Brentford is likely to start in its familiar 4-2-3-1 formation. Coach Keith Andrews will still be without three midfielders, with Carvalho out for the entire season with a cruciate ligament rupture, Milambo out with a long-term injury, and Dasilva still working on his return after knee surgery. Kelleher is expected to start in goal, with a back four of Kayode, Collins, van den Berg, and Ajer, with Ajer back in action after a back spasm. Henderson and Yarmolyuk are expected to play in the double six, with Ouattara, Damsgaard, and Schade occupying the attacking midfield positions in front of them and Thiago as the lone striker in the center of the attack.
Burnley Form & Record Check
Burnley are deep in the relegation battle, with Scott Parker’s team in 19th place with 10 points from 12 games, just one point ahead of Leeds. Two positive results against Leeds and Wolves were followed by three heavy defeats against Arsenal, West Ham, and Chelsea, quickly erasing the momentum they had painstakingly built up. The first half is particularly problematic, with Burnley conceding goals before the break in four of their last five games, and around 80% of these games ending with at least one goal conceded in the first half. The 2-0 defeat to Chelsea, with Neto’s goal shortly before half-time and Fernandez’s late goal, is symbolic of this vulnerability. The result structure is also striking: in the last five games, there has not been a single draw; Burnley either wins or loses. All games have had more than 1.5 goals, with the decisive moment usually coming before or shortly after the break, while the second halves have tended to be less eventful. This suggests that Burnley either invests a lot of energy very early on or loses its way in critical phases before the break. Tactically, Parker has tried a lot recently, opting for a back five against top teams and returning to a back four against Chelsea. He praises the intensity of training and the growing comfort of the players in the respective systems, but the results have not been convincing so far. Beyer, Roberts and Amdouni are still out, Broja is back in contention after ankle problems and Hartman has returned from illness. Overall, Parker reports a relatively manageable injury list, which is at least a small plus point given the team’s position in the table. However, it remains crucial that Burnley become more stable defensively, especially in the first half, otherwise it will remain difficult to earn points and games with multiple goals and early decisions are very likely.
At Burnley, Scott Parker is expected to stick with a 4-3-3 formation after recently switching to a back four. According to him, most of the squad is fit to play, but several long-term injuries remain. Walker, Tuanzebe, Estève, and Hartman are expected to start in defense, with Hartman back after recovering from illness, while Roberts and Beyer remain sidelined. Florentino, Ugochukwu, and Cullen are likely to start in central midfield. Tchaouna, Flemming, and Anthony are expected to start in attack. Amdouni’s cruciate ligament rupture is a serious blow, likely to keep him out of action until April. Broja has returned to training after ankle problems, but is likely to be used as a substitute option initially.
Brentford – Burnley Head-to-head & statistics
In the head-to-head record of recent encounters, Burnley has the slight edge with three wins and two defeats, with no draws in these five matches. Burnley won the most recent encounter in March 2024 away from home 2-1, while Brentford had previously triumphed 3-0 at home in October 2023. The role of the second half is striking, with Brentford scoring at least one goal after the break in all five games, enabling them to turn games around or extend their leads. Burnley conceded goals after the break in each of these matches during the same period, clearly indicating a vulnerability in the second half. There is also a clear pattern in terms of goals scored, with at least two goals scored in all five matches, four times even more than 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring in each of these matches. This confirms the impression of two offensively minded teams with weaknesses in defense. Overall, the head-to-head record once again points to an open, high-scoring game with goals at both ends. For Brentford, the key, as so often, lies in a strong second half, while Burnley must defend much more solidly after the break in order to break this streak.
