Late goals, a clear trend in head-to-head comparisons, and two teams that have risen from the lower leagues to the Premier League set the stage when Brentford hosts Bournemouth at Brentford Community Stadium on Saturday in the 18th matchday of the Premier League. Keith Andrews’ team is in 12th place with 23 points, level on points with Newcastle and Fulham, while Andoni Iraola’s Cherries are in 15th place, one point behind, in a tightly packed mid-table where the bookmakers give the hosts only a slight advantage. History clearly favors Brentford, who are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Bournemouth, winning four of those, including August’s League Cup tie on the south coast, which ended 2-0 with goals from Carvalho and Thiago and a late red card for Araujo. These encounters have been open and high-scoring, and both teams’ penchant for late goals suggests that the outcome could once again be decided in the closing stages. However, recent form is pulling the mood in different directions, with Brentford coming into this game on the back of their first away win of the season, a 2-0 victory at Wolves, and Thiago already on 11 league goals and attracting interest from Liverpool. Bournemouth have been waiting for a win for eight games, most recently drawing 1-1 with Burnley despite another goal from Semenyo, whose impending £65 million release clause dominates the pre-match coverage. At the same time, the xG figures show that both teams are slightly below expectations.
- Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London
- Date and time: December 27, 2025, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 18)
The betting market sees Brentford as slight favorites, with odds of around 2.3, which seems quite generous given Bournemouth’s eight Premier League games without a win, Igor Thiago’s 11 league goals, and Keane Lewis-Potter’s form. Our tips are therefore on Brentford to win, but at the same time we expect Antoine Semenyo to strike again. Accordingly, Both Teams to Score: Yes is a good bet, as is a focus on goals after the break, as both clubs tend to score late and have rather chaotic final phases.
Brentford Form & Record Check
Brentford go into this game in twelfth place with 23 points, a narrow mid-table gap that seems even smaller when you consider that Newcastle are level on points above them and Fulham are level on points behind them. In their last five games in all competitions, they have recorded one win, one draw, and three defeats, a run that underlines how fragile their form continues to be. The 2-0 win at Wolves was significant, as it was their first away win in the league this season and the performance was much more controlled than the result suggests, with Lewis Potter alert and Janelt commanding. Before and after that, however, there were rather lackluster 2-0 league defeats at Arsenal and Tottenham, as well as a 2-0 League Cup exit against Manchester City, in which Brentford rarely troubled the defending champions. Interestingly, their recent games have been tight rather than wild, with all of their last five ending with at least two goals but never more than two, and Brentford conceding in four of them. They have not scored in the first half in any of this run, suggesting slow starts, while xG data suggests they should actually be a little higher in the table, so performances are running slightly ahead of results. In attack, Igor Thiago’s 11 league goals show that he carries a large part of the threat, and Liverpool’s interest could become a distraction as time goes on. Lewis-Potter provides an important spark from the attacking trio, while Ouattara’s AFCON absence and a midfield without Onyeka and Dasilva are likely to significantly limit Andrews’ options and explain some of the inconsistency.
Brentford are expected to stick with the familiar 4-3-3 formation from our predicted line-up, with Kelleher in goal behind a back four of Kayode, Collins, van den Berg, and Henry. Janelt should once again anchor the midfield, flanked by Yarmolyuk and Jensen, while Lewis-Potter and Schade support Thiago, who has scored 11 goals in the league and is attracting interest from Liverpool. This is a predicted starting lineup, not a confirmed one. Injuries and absences feature heavily in this assessment, with Onyeka and Ouattara at the AFCON, leaving the midfield and attack without two reliable options. Dasilva, Milambo, and Carvalho remain long-term absentees in midfield after knee and cruciate ligament problems, so depth in the center remains thin. Nelson is an option again and is in our predicted bench, so he, Damsgaard, or Peart-Harris could provide the most important offensive changes.
Bournemouth Form & Record Check
Bournemouth arrive in West London in a clear slump, having gone eight Premier League games without a win and sitting 15th in the table with 22 points. They are level on points with Tottenham above them and only three points ahead of Leeds, so the buffer is small, especially as it contrasts sharply with their record-breaking season last year and five wins in their first nine games this season. In their last five league games, Bournemouth lost 3-2 away to Sunderland and 1-0 at home to Everton, followed by a 0-0 draw with Chelsea, a spectacular 4-4 draw at Manchester United, and a 1-1 draw with Burnley. The Burnley game was particularly costly, as Semenyo’s goal was canceled out by a 90th-minute header from Broja. The performances have mostly been lively, but lapses in concentration repeatedly turn promising starting positions into shared points or defeats. Antoine Semenyo remains the linchpin in attack, scoring at Old Trafford and again against Burnley, while teenager Kroupi poses a threat as a substitute, with five league goals, an outstanding minutes-per-goal ratio, and a knack for late strikes. Nevertheless, the team seems increasingly dependent on moments from this duo, while Evanilson, Kluivert, Tavernier, and Brooks have contributed only sporadically instead of carrying the collective goal burden since August. Tactically, Iraola’s identity remains unchanged, with Bournemouth continuing to lead the league in pressing intensity and forcing 125 high ball wins, with seven goals coming from counterattacks, but defensive stability has waned since the departure of Zabarnyi, Kerkez, and Huijsen. They have conceded in four of their last five games, often after halftime, and no Premier League team has conceded more set-piece goals than their current tally of 12. Tyler Adams’ torn medial ligament deprives the midfield of additional control and increases the burden on Cook and Scott, while Gannon-Doak’s long-term absence reduces the offensive rotation. Fatigue and a thin squad may be compounding these late mistakes, even though Optas supercomputer continues to predict a safe mid-table finish, roughly eight points above the traditional 40-point safety mark, so the current run is noticeably narrowing the margins.
Bournemouth are expected to stick with Iraola’s usual 4-2-3-1, so my predicted lineup mirrors the one against Burnley, with Petrovic in goal behind a back four of Jiménez, Diakité, Senesi, and Truffert. Cook and Tavernier should stabilize the midfield, while Brooks and Kluivert operate on the wings and Semenyo supports central striker Evanilson, maintaining the high pressing and quick transitions associated with this team. Adams remains sidelined with a torn medial ligament and Gannon-Doak is still unavailable due to a thigh injury, so Iraola is likely to stick with the same core again. The aforementioned eleven should be considered a probable, not a confirmed, starting lineup, while Scott, Christie, Adli, and Kroupi offer alternatives to change the midfield structure or bring in fresh attacking options.
Brentford – Bournemouth Head-to-Head & Statistics
Brentford has been clearly superior in the last five encounters, with four wins and one draw, while Bournemouth is still waiting for a win. The overall record stands at 11-6 in Brentford’s favor, which not only highlights their control of the result, but also their ability to consistently outperform Bournemouth in both the league and the cup. The recent series began with a 2-2 draw in 2023, after which Brentford took complete control, In 2024, they narrowly beat Bournemouth 2-1 away and 3-2 at home in the league, before adding another 2-1 league win at Bournemouth in March 2025 and a 2-0 League Cup win there in August 2025, making it a run of four wins. Goals were consistently a theme, with every game in this series producing at least two goals, and four of the five ending with three or more. Brentford scored in all five games, Bournemouth in four, yet there was only one Brentford game without conceding a goal, showing that Bournemouth usually remains dangerous even when losing. The pattern within the games is also revealing, with four of the five matches level at halftime and the last four all going into the break with a draw. Brentford then usually took control, winning the second half in four games, while Bournemouth was repeatedly punished as soon as the game opened up. For the upcoming league clash, recent history therefore points to a match that is likely to start cautiously and could tip in Brentford’s favor as the players tire. It is possible that Bournemouth will try to break this cycle by playing more aggressively earlier on, because once the game opens up, these five encounters suggest that Brentford is better at handling the decisive moments.
