Seven league games without a win on one side, seven defeats in a row on the other – this is the situation facing AFC Bournemouth and Burnley when they meet at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday, and in the lower third of the Premier League table, this duel has long been seen as a decisive one. Andoni Iraola’s team is in 13th place with 21 points, sandwiched between Newcastle and Fulham, while Scott Parker’s Burnley is in 19th place with 10 points and a goal difference of minus 15, putting them deep in relegation danger. Despite Monday’s wild 4-4 draw at Old Trafford, Bournemouth have not won in seven league games, a run that has seen them slip from second place to mid-table and put even more focus on Semenyo and the injured Adams. Burnley come into the game on the back of a 3-2 home defeat to Fulham, their seventh consecutive league defeat, although the return of Pires and Walker Parker offers some much-needed options. Recent head-to-head results favor Bournemouth, who won 2-0 at Turf Moor in March and have won three of the last four meetings, with at least two goals scored in each game.
- Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
- Date and time: 20.12.2025, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (matchday 17)
With bookmakers giving Bournemouth odds of around 1.5, the prediction that Bournemouth will win seems well-founded, as Burnley are coming off a run of seven defeats, conceding a lot of goals and having to do without attackers such as Foster and Hannibal, even though Walker and Pires are returning. This context, combined with Bournemouth’s four goals at Old Trafford and their second-half scoring, supports a bet on the hosts after the break, while Burnley’s rather blunt offense reinforces the assessment that both teams are likely to score here: No interesting remains.
Bournemouth Form & Record Check
Bournemouth goes into this game against Burnley in a somewhat uncomfortable position. The team is in 13th place in the Premier League table with 21 points, just one point behind Newcastle and one ahead of Fulham, but has not won in seven league games. The drop from second place at the start of the season to mid-table suggests that performances have dipped somewhat, even if the team is still only five points off the European places.
Recent results paint a fairly clear picture. The 4-4 draw at Old Trafford showed impressive attacking prowess with goals from Semenyo, Evanilson, Tavernier, and Kroupi, but at the same time exposed ongoing defensive problems. That was preceded by a goalless home draw against Chelsea, in which the basic formation worked better but there was a lack of ideas up front, as well as narrow defeats to Everton and Sunderland, games in which Bournemouth created enough chances to get something out of the game but failed to take the decisive moments.
In their last five league games, they have drawn three and lost two, conceding goals in four of those games and looking vulnerable when opponents break through their pressing. Iraola’s high tempo with quick transitions and an aggressive attacking line is clearly evident, but the balance is not right, the negative goal difference of minus three reflects this fragility and it seems as if Petrovic in goal is being asked to do too much at times.
Added to this are personnel problems. Adams, who played in 14 of the first 15 league games and is considered a key player in pressing, had to be substituted early in the game at United with a sprained left MCL, and his absence could make the defense look even more open. Semenyo has impressively underlined his offensive quality with seven goals and three assists, but the increasing transfer rumours surrounding him and Gannon Doak’s protracted injury are already prompting Bournemouth to think intensively about reinforcements in January.
Iraola’s usual 4-2-3-1 formation is likely to be retained, with Petrovic in goal and a back four of Smith, Diakité, Senesi, and Truffert. Cook and Scott should form the double six, providing balance in front of a defense that has looked a little more stable recently after the changes at the start of the season, although rotations are not out of the question in the busy December schedule.
Further forward, the predicted trio of Semenyo, Kluivert, and Tavernier should start behind Evanilson, supporting him with lots of movement, positional changes, and quick runs. Adams is expected to remain sidelined after his MCL strain, meaning his energy in midfield will be lost, and Gannon Doak is also out, so the wing roles are likely to remain relatively unchanged unless Iraola brings in players like Brooks or Adli from the start.
Burnley Form & Record Check
Burnley travels to Bournemouth in much weaker form, with seven consecutive Premier League defeats pushing the club to 19th place with 10 points and a goal difference of minus 15. The team is three points behind West Ham, the team directly above them, and eight points ahead of Wolves, who are bottom of the table. Scott Parker’s rather pragmatic approach has earned the team some respect, but as recent reports show, impressive performances are often not reflected in the points tally.
The recent run highlights this problem. At home, Burnley lost 2-3 to Fulham, 0-1 to Crystal Palace, and 0-2 to Chelsea, while away they lost 1-3 at Brentford and 1-2 at Newcastle. So it’s not a case of clear defeats week after week, but Burnley repeatedly lose close games and fail to convert prolonged periods of pressure into results.
The figures from the last five league games speak for themselves. Burnley never led at halftime, lost the first half in four of those games, and conceded goals in every game, with four of those games seeing at least two goals scored in total. One might think that confidence and game management are now just as problematic as the basic formation, as the team finds it difficult to regain momentum after falling behind.
Parker is also hampered by injury concerns in defense and attack. Humphreys, Beyer, and Roberts are out with injuries, Tuanzebe and Foster are away with their national teams, Amdouni is out long term, and Hannibal is suspended in the league. The return of Pires and Walker to the squad provides only slight relief, and the impression of a thin squad in both penalty areas remains.
Burnley are expected to stick with their usual 4-3-3 system under Scott Parker. Our predicted lineup sees Dubravka in goal, behind a back four of Walker, Worrall, Esteve, and Hartman. In midfield, Florentino and Ugochukwu are expected to play slightly deeper, while Cullen will link up with the front three of Edwards, Broja, and Bruun Larsen, although this is clearly a projection and not a confirmed starting lineup.
Humphreys, Tuanzebe, Beyer, and Roberts remain sidelined due to injury or international duty, which leaves Burnley thin defensively. Our prediction sees Delcroix and Pires as substitute options on the bench. In midfield, Hannibal is suspended in the Premier League, while further forward, Foster is missing as he is on international duty with South Africa at the Africa Cup of Nations, and long-term absentee Amdouni continues his recovery from a cruciate ligament rupture.
Bournemouth – Burnley Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches since 2020, Bournemouth has narrowly come out on top with three wins, Burnley has won two of those games, and there has not been a single draw. The total number of goals is evenly balanced at eight per side, which initially suggests a close contest, especially as the away team won three of these five encounters, meaning home advantage was not a reliable indicator.
Chronologically, Burnley took the early lead with a 3-0 win in the 2020 league, before Bournemouth responded with a 2-0 away win in the 2021 cup. The 2023 cup tie swung back in Burnley’s favor, who won 4-2 at Bournemouth to knock the hosts out of the competition, while both league games in 2023 and 2024 went to Bournemouth, with a 2-1 win at home and a 2-0 win at Turf Moor.
The goal tally has remained remarkably consistent over the years. All five games ended with at least two goals, four of them remaining below the four-goal mark, so the games were mostly lively offensively without completely derailing. Bournemouth scored in four of the five encounters, often early on, finding the net before halftime in four games, while Burnley conceded goals in both the first and second halves in four games.
It is also striking that there have been no close decisions, with each of the five games producing a winner and in four cases the margin being at least two goals. Bournemouth have won three of the last four encounters and have been particularly successful in the league, but at the same time, the combined goal tally of eight goals per team shows that Burnley can still be dangerous if the game follows a similar pattern.
