Athletic Club – Sevilla
Five consecutive matches have ended with less than 2.5 goals, and now San Mamés kicks off the new Primera División season on Sunday with Athletic Bilbao against FC Sevilla.
Ernesto Valverde faces league newcomer Matías Almeyda. The last match ended 0-1 in Nervión, with a 1-1 draw in Bilbao. The start is important for both teams, even if the early standings, with them in 3rd and 17th place, are not very meaningful.
Athletic comes into the game with a shaky preparation and many absences, short on defense, Yeray suspended, Paredes back, Sancet, Prados, and Unai Gómez missing. The Laporte situation remains open. Sevilla are traveling with Almeyda and a thin squad due to registration problems with LaLiga and several injuries, with Pedrosa pushing for a return and Idumbo and Ejuke available. Lamela joins the coaching staff. It is likely to be a tight game with few chances, in which details will decide the outcome.
Bilbao – Sevilla info
- Venue: Estadio de San Mamés, Bilbao
- Date and time: 17.08.2025, 19:30
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 1)
Our three starting points are interlinked. X2 seems plausible because Athletic will have to do without Sancet, Prados and Unai Gómez in the center, Egiluz is not an option and Valverde temporarily moved Yuri into central defense during the preseason; Paredes is back, but the automatisms are fragile. Sevilla are getting players back in time on the wings with Ejuke and Idumbo and at the back with Pedrosa, even if the registration confusion is severely limiting Almeyda’s options on paper. The history at San Mamés favors the underdogs, with Sevilla scoring remarkably often there in the new millennium and the most recent encounter ending 1-1. The fact that Athletic have not scored in the first half of their last five games, that both coaches are likely to start cautiously given the personnel situation, and that Sevilla have several attacking players who are not yet fully fit or have not been registered yet, all point to under 1.5 goals in the first half. After the break, the picture changes, so Over 1.5 – 2nd half offers value, with at least two goals scored after the break in around 75% of Sevilla’s recent games, while Athletic were noticeably vulnerable in pre-season with an improvised defense, which could become apparent later in the game as their organization breaks down and they concede more space. In short, it will be tight and cautious until the break, more open after that, with X2 getting a boost from history and the visitors’ regained wing power.
Bilbao Form & Record Check
Athletic comes into the game in mixed form. In La Liga, they had three wins in a row in May, 1-0 against Alavés, 2-0 in Getafe, and 1-0 in Valencia, before the 0-3 defeat against Barcelona put a damper on things. It is striking that in the last five competitive games and tests, the team never scored before the break, with the momentum tending to come after the break. This fits in with Valverde’s approach in the early stages.
The preparations were bumpy. Arsenal mercilessly exposed the team’s weaknesses in a 3-0 defeat in the Emirates Cup in London, with Bukayo Saka exploiting the open wings and Yuri picking up an early yellow card and often having to react as a makeshift center back. Overall, there were six defeats in a row and 15 goals conceded in seven test matches. The coordination in the back line is not yet there, partly due to numerous absences.
The squad is thin in the center. Yeray is out due to a doping ban, Egiluz is out with a long-term injury, and Sancet and Prados are also unavailable. On the positive side, Paredes is back and should form the axis with Vivian, Yuri remains an option in the center, and Areso is integrated. Interestingly, four of the last five second halves ended with less than 1.5 goals, and at the same time, there were no halftime leads. This suggests compactness after adjustments, but also slow starts.
The table shows the provisional findings. Officially, they are in third place without any points, level with Atlético and three behind Villarreal. The bar remains high after winning the cup and returning to the Champions League. Valverde could focus more on control at the start, but San Mamés still demands forward momentum. Form has been shaky across all competitions, but the league form at the end of last season was solid.
Our prediction: Valverde will stick with 4-2-3-1. In front of Simón, a back four of Areso, Vivian, Paredes and Berchiche. In front of them, Vesga and Galarreta as a stable axis. In attack, the Williams brothers will play on the wings, Jauregizar in the number ten role and Guruzeta up front. That’s a possible starting eleven, not a confirmation, but it’s in line with what the coach has been trying out recently.
In terms of personnel, there are many indications that Jauregizar will replace Sancet. Álvarez remains suspended, Egiluz is out for a long time and Prados is doubtful. Paredes is back in time and should form the central defensive pairing with Vivian, with Berchiche able to drop inside if necessary, as was rehearsed in pre-season. Berenguer is available as a winger. Minor adjustments are possible, but the basic formation is likely to remain the same.
Sevilla Form & Record Check
Sevilla is coming off a tough end to the league season in Bilbao. They lost 1-0 to Las Palmas, 2-0 to Real Madrid, 3-2 in Vigo and 4-2 at Villarreal. They show flashes of quality in attack, but the balance quickly tips. Interestingly, they often start well but fade after the break. Overall, this does not live up to expectations, even if individual attacks are played out cleanly.
In all competitive games in recent weeks, Sevilla has scored in 75% of their last five games, conceding goals in just as many, often in the second half. The first halves ended in draws with remarkable frequency, around 75%. No draws after 90 minutes. One might think that Almeyda’s approach makes the game more vertical, but the rest of the defense remains vulnerable.
The circumstances are weighing on the team’s form. Almeyda currently has only a small squad, some of whom are not registered, and several regulars are out injured, including Loïc Badé, Tanguy Nianzou, Ramón Martínez, Joan Jordán, and Rubén Vargas. Pedrosa is pushing back, Idumbo and Ejuke are providing width. Rafa Mir is on his way out, Vlachodimos is competing with Nyland. Sevilla are formally starting from 17th place in the table, level on points with Real Sociedad and Valencia.
Our prediction: Sevilla will stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Nyland is likely to start, with Carmona, Salas, Marcão and Pedrosa, who has recovered in time, in front of him. Gudelj will probably play in the center alongside Agoumé, with Lukébakio and Ejuke on the wings and Romero as the number nine. Fernández is a good option as the number ten. Interestingly, Almeyda could opt for early counter-pressing and quick runs down the wings.
Badé, Nianzou, Ramón Martínez, Jordán and Vargas are likely to be missing. In addition, several players have not yet been registered with LaLiga, including Suazo, Álvaro Fernández, Vlachodimos, Alfon, Adams and Iheanacho. A tweak with Gudelj as center back and Sow in the six instead of Marcão is therefore possible. Idumbo and Ejuke are back in training, but both are more likely to come off the bench.
H2H Bilbao – Sevilla Head-to-head & statistics
The last five encounters slightly favor Athletic. Three wins, one draw, and one defeat. Athletic last won in Seville in March 2025, 1-0. In Bilbao, the score has been even since 2023, 0-1 in 2023, 2-0 in 2024, and 1-1 in September 2024.
All five games had fewer than 2.5 goals. In the second halves, there was a maximum of one goal, also five times in a row. The first 45 minutes were often tough, with four games having fewer than 1.5 goals. Sevilla only scored in two of these five encounters, with the team failing to score three times.
The pattern suggests a close, physical match. Athletic look solid defensively in this comparison, while Sevilla often struggled to find solutions late on. It could be that the first chance on goal will set the tone again. Whoever takes the lead will have the advantage, as we saw very few comebacks in these five games.
