For a whole week, everything in Bilbao will be focused on the heavyweights of European soccer, with Real Madrid kicking off this home series at San Mamés on matchday 19 of La Liga. Athletic goes into this match in eighth place with 20 points, but with a negative goal difference and a clear contrast between strong home form and weak away performances. Ernesto Valverde’s team looks much more stable in its own stadium, which could be a decisive factor in this intense series with Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, and PSG within ten days.
Real travel to the game in second place in the table, but have lost the lead to Barcelona after three consecutive league draws and are now in a minor results crisis. Xabi Alonso returns to his former club, where Madrid lost 2-1 last year, which further underlines the respect for San Mamés. At the same time, there are reports of tensions within the squad and organizational turmoil surrounding the Bernabéu, which is closed due to an NFL event. Athletic are missing key offensive players in Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro, and the suspended Sancet, while Galarreta returns after serving a yellow card suspension, a mix that makes the starting position exciting and challenging both athletically and mentally.
- Venue: Estadio de San Mamés, Bilbao
- Date and time: 03.12.2025, 7:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 19)
The betting analysis focuses on three markets: Real Madrid to win at odds of around 1.8, Real Madrid to win the second half, and over 2.5 goals. These tips are based primarily on Madrid’s offensive strength around Mbappé, who has scored a high percentage of the team’s goals this season and recently shone with a hat trick, the absence of key offensive players at Athletic such as Iñaki Williams and Sancet, and the advantage from recent head-to-head matches, in which Real won three times. The tip for a Madrid win after the break is based on Athletic’s weakness in the second half, with the team failing to win a single half after the break in their last five games, and on the fact that Xabi Alonso often makes an impact with substitutions and tactical adjustments after the break. Over 2.5 goals seems plausible because Real’s defense has been inconsistent lately, conceding goals in four of their last five games, while Athletic scores regularly at home and Madrid has enormous individual quality with players like Mbappé, Vinícius, and Bellingham.
However, there are clear risks. Three consecutive draws in the league, the loss of the top spot in the table to Barcelona, and reports of unrest in the dressing room suggest a certain vulnerability at Real. Added to this is the special character of San Mamés, where away teams traditionally struggle, as well as the strain of Champions League games and travel on both sides, with Athletic having to travel to Prague, for example. Overall, the suggested bets offer value, but remain linked to several uncertain factors such as the atmosphere in the dressing room, fatigue, and Athletic’s home strength. Those who prefer a conservative approach should prioritize the main tip and, at most, add smaller bets on the second half and over 2.5 goals. Only bet money that you can afford to lose and adjust your stakes to your personal risk appetite.
Bilbao form & record check
Athletic has shown an extreme divide between home and away form this season. Since their triumph at La Cartuja in August, the team has only managed two draws and six defeats in eight competitive games at other stadiums, with a goal difference of 3:16. In a fictional away table for the league, that would only be enough for 15th place. This is often due to individual mistakes such as Vivian’s red card, a lack of concentration on set pieces, and risky turnovers in build-up play. In addition, the team often slows down after halftime, and the rotation between league and European competition costs them additional rhythm.
Tactically, Ernesto Valverde recently opted for a changed offensive formation against Levante with Nico Williams on the left, Berenguer centrally behind the striker and Navarro on the right. This variation worked, but Navarro was injured and is expected to be out until around December 5. Sancet is suspended for two league games, Iñaki Williams is likely to be out until mid-December with adductor problems, Galarreta is available again after serving a yellow card suspension, and Sannadi and Egiluz are out for longer. Athletic have only collected two points in the Champions League so far, including a 0-0 draw in Prague, and their away performances in Dortmund and Newcastle have made it clear that the club is not yet able to compete at the highest level internationally. Statistically, it is striking that Athletic have not scored a goal after the break in five games and four of those games have had fewer than 2.5 goals, which points to a decline in offensive power and limited adaptability against well-organized opponents. The coming week will be extremely challenging, with home games against Real Madrid and Atlético, as well as the clash with PSG in the Champions League. Valverde is tailoring training to individual players and has inserted a recovery day. The decisive factors will be whether the team’s strong home form against top teams will carry over and whether the defense and mental stability can be improved within a short period of time.
At Athletic Bilbao, Ernesto Valverde is expected to stick with his usual 4-2-3-1 formation, even though the personnel situation in attack is tense. Iñaki Williams is still out with adductor problems, and Robert Navarro is struggling with an ankle injury. Laporte and Vivian are expected to start in central defense, with Nico Williams bringing pace and depth down the left flank. Guruzeta is likely to take on the role of center forward, with Berenguer or Rego candidates for the central position behind him. Which option Valverde ultimately chooses will only be revealed when the official starting lineup is announced.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid are in a significant slump in La Liga ahead of this away game in Bilbao. Three consecutive draws, 0-0 against Rayo, 2-2 against Elche, and 1-1 against Girona, have cost them the top spot in the table. With 33 points, Real are one point behind Barcelona and only one ahead of Villarreal, and the trend is pointing downward for now. Offensively, there is enormous pressure on Kylian Mbappé, who has scored 23 of the 41 goals this season, his gala performance in the 4-3 win against Olympiakos masking the inconsistency of the team’s overall performance. Rodrygo is in a historic dry spell, with 30 competitive games and 1,339 minutes without a goal, which further increases the team’s dependence on Mbappé.
Defensively, problems have also come to light recently. Real have conceded goals in four of their last five games, and in their last two league games, the team remained below 1.5 goals at halftime, an indication of a lack of punch in the first half and uncertainties in defense. Several absences are complicating the situation: Carvajal is out long term, Alaba is doubtful, Huijsen is suffering from a thigh strain, and Asensio has been struggling with a gastrointestinal illness. Rüdiger and Militão are back, and Alexander-Arnold is making progress but is not yet fully integrated, which means there is a lack of defensive consistency. The 4-3 Champions League win in Piraeus could be seen as a possible turning point, but the three league draws before that suggest otherwise. Xabi Alonso has publicly called for self-criticism and unity, but at the same time, reports of disagreements within the squad are weighing on the environment. In the short term, it will be crucial to stabilize the defense and relieve Mbappé by improving the form of other offensive players. Tactical adjustments, targeted rotation, and work on the team structure are the focus in order to stop the crisis and preserve the championship chances.
At Real Madrid, Rüdiger and Militão are fit again and are likely to return to their usual starting lineup after both were recently injured. Huijsen is still out with knee problems and is not expected to be an option again until the Athletic game. In attack, Mbappé is set to start after his four goals against Olympiakos, even though there are still reports of tension within the squad. It remains to be seen whether Xabi Alonso will stick with his previous lineup or rotate more heavily; he recently added a defensive touch with Mendy. Official confirmation of the starting lineup is still pending.
Bilbao – Real Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five direct duels between Athletic Club and Real Madrid, Real has won three times, Athletic has won once, and another game ended in a draw. Real scored in all five games, while Athletic conceded at least one goal in each. The results were mostly close, with three of these five encounters seeing the teams score under 2.5 goals and never more than three goals. Athletic proved particularly competitive at San Mamés, where they won 2-1 at home in December 2024, while Real won 1-0 in the return leg in Madrid in April 2025. Overall, the games were close and hard-fought.
The course of the games after the breaks is also striking. Real scored at least one goal in the second half in four of the five games, while Athletic regularly conceded goals in this phase and failed to score before the break in any of these games. The data therefore suggests that these are matches in which much is decided after the break and in which few, but often late, goals are scored. In terms of tactics, this points to a match in which control and efficiency after the break will be particularly important. Real have been somewhat more consistent in recent head-to-head matches, but Athletic are always capable of springing a surprise in front of their home crowd.
