With Iñaki Williams out with an adductor injury, Athletic Bilbao faces a personnel challenge when they host Getafe at San Mamés on Saturday. The hosts are riding high after their Champions League victory, where Gorka Guruzeta scored twice in a 3-1 win over Qarabag, while Getafe will be without Allan Nyom and Álex Sancris after two red cards against Real Madrid. Athletic are eighth in the table with 14 points, while Getafe are twelfth, just one point above the relegation zone. Their form is pointing in different directions: while Athletic can draw confidence from their European success, Getafe have been waiting for a win for five competitive games.
- Venue: Estadio de San Mamés, Bilbao
- Date and time: 10/25/2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 10)
A home win at odds of around 1.70 seems justified given the current circumstances. Guruzeta is in impressive form with over ten goals this season, which gives Athletic’s offense stability despite Williams’ absence. Noteworthy is the statistical tendency toward low-scoring halves: 80% of Athletic’s last first halves remained under 1.5 goals, and the same applies to Getafe’s second halves. The recommended betting options include a home win with moderate risk and good value, under 2.5 goals due to Getafe’s defensive orientation, and, as a riskier tip, “both teams to score: no,” as Getafe has been very ineffective offensively lately. With moderate confidence, it is advisable to spread the stake across several markets rather than concentrating on a single option.
Bilbao form & record check
Athletic Bilbao are showing two sides to their game: convincing in Europe, but inconsistent in the league with only five points from their last five games. The victory against Mallorca was followed by a defeat in Villarreal and a goalless draw in Elche. Particularly noticeable is the defensive vulnerability in critical phases, most recently with a goal conceded after less than a minute, and the problems in the final stages, where goals were conceded in three consecutive games. The team’s dependence on Nico Williams is clearly reflected in the statistics: with him, Athletic picked up all twelve possible points, without him only one out of twelve. Valverde faces the task of managing the burden between the league and Europe and finding offensive alternatives, especially as the team often only develops its strength after the break.
Ernesto Valverde is expected to field his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation. In defense, Gorosabel, Laporte, Vivian, and Berchiche form the back four in front of goal. Jauregizar and Vesga occupy the central midfield as double sixes, with Prados back in contention after serving his Champions League suspension. In attack, Berenguer is likely to start on the right wing in place of the injured Iñaki Williams, while Nico Williams will retain his position. Sancet will play as an attacking midfielder behind striker Guruzeta.
Getafe Form & Record Check
Getafe find themselves in a precarious position in twelfth place with eleven points, level on points with Rayo Vallecano and only one point ahead of Osasuna. Their negative run of five games without a win, with three defeats and two draws, reveals defensive weaknesses in particular: they have conceded goals in all five games, with the second half being particularly problematic. The recent defeat against Real Madrid exacerbated the situation with red cards, meaning that key defensive players will be missing for the away game at San Mamés. The team is completely lacking in offensive power and has been waiting for a win after 90 minutes for five games. Luis Milla remains the only consistent creative factor with five assists in eight games. José Bordalás has to reorganize his defense, but the support of over 400 traveling fans remains a small ray of hope.
José Bordalás is relying on his tried-and-tested 5-3-2 formation with Soria in goal. The back five consists of Femenía, Duarte, Djené, Abqar, and Rico. In central midfield, Milla, Arambarri, and Martín provide stability, with Milla standing out as the league’s top assist provider with five assists. Mayoral and Kamara form the front line, the latter after a strong performance in the friendly against Hull. Despite the suspensions of Nyom and Sancris, the personnel situation is relaxed as there are no further injuries. Letacek, Iglesias, Neyou, and Juanmi are expected to take their places on the bench.
Bilbao – Getafe Head-to-head & statistics
The record from the last five meetings favors Athletic with two wins and three draws, while Getafe has remained winless. Interestingly, both Athletic wins came away at Getafe, both by a score of 2-0. A striking pattern emerges in the first half: in all five matches, the first 45 minutes remained goalless or saw a maximum of one goal, with the decisive action consistently shifting to the second half. The overall goal tally remained low, with four of the five games ending with fewer than three goals. Athletic have not been able to dominate Getafe automatically at San Mamés recently, as the draws in August 2024 and September 2023 show. For the current encounter, this suggests a close game with a late decision, which makes betting options such as under 2.5 goals or half-time/full-time “draw/home win” interesting.
