On Saturday evening, two teams that have just suffered a significant setback will face each other in the atmospheric San Mamés stadium when Athletic Bilbao hosts fourth-placed Atlético Madrid. Both teams lost during the week, with Athletic going down 3-0 to Real Madrid and Atlético losing at Camp Nou, and both will be looking to end their losing streak. In the table, Atlético are well ahead of Athletic with 31 points, while Athletic are in eighth place with 20 points. The head-to-head record is fairly even overall, but Atlético have had the upper hand recently, winning the last three league games between the two sides. It is striking how often these games have been close, with a maximum of two goals scored in four of the last five encounters. The games have been tactical and rather low-scoring. In terms of form, the picture is consistent, with Athletic showing fluctuations with three wins and two defeats in their last five games, while Atlético looked very stable until their defeat against Barcelona. Important players are missing: Athletic will have to replace Iñaki Williams, while Atlético will be without Baena, Llorente, and Giménez, and Julián Álvarez has so far failed to live up to expectations. However, San Mamés is often an unpleasant place for visiting teams, and Athletic has frequently shown that it can cause trouble for top teams there. There are many indications that this will be a tactical game with a close result, in which a draw or a win for Atlético Madrid is quite conceivable. The keys to the game are Athletic’s home strength, Atlético’s defense without Giménez and Llorente, Álvarez’s form, and Madrid’s response to the defeat in Barcelona.
- Venue: Estadio de San Mamés, Bilbao
- Date and time: December 6, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 15)
The visitors are in impressive form with six league wins in a row and an extremely solid defense, conceding only one goal in their last six games. Athletic, on the other hand, has personnel problems and has lost twice recently at San Mamés, which makes an away win at these odds attractive. Secondly, there is a lot to be said for under 2.5 goals. Athletic are currently scoring very little in the second half, with less than 1.5 goals scored after the break in 80% of their recent games and no goals scored after the break in their last five home games. Added to this are the absences of key attacking players Iñaki Williams and Sannadi. On the other hand, Jan Oblak often keeps a clean sheet, five times in six league games, which suggests few goals overall. Thirdly, the tip “Both teams to score: No” seems plausible, even if it goes against the instincts of many tipsters. Given Athletic’s personnel problems, their weak offensive form in recent home games, and Oblak’s strong form, a scenario in which both teams score seems rather unlikely. Atlético has recently found additional offensive solutions with Sørloth, while Athletic is currently struggling to score goals on a regular basis.
Bilbao form & record check
Athletic Bilbao has been extremely inconsistent this season. Heavy defeats to Real Madrid (0-3) and Barcelona (0-4) have been offset by victories over Levante (2-0) and Oviedo (1-0) and a 0-0 draw with Slavia Prague in the Champions League. With 20 points, the club is in eighth place, level on points with Getafe in seventh, which underlines its role as a typical mid-table team. A clear pattern has emerged: Bilbao often lacks punch and defensive stability against the top teams in the league, while against nominally weaker opponents, efficiency and securing results usually work. The game against Real exemplified how dangerous fast attackers like Mbappé can be at exploiting space and how a goalkeeper like Courtois can neutralize Bilbao’s few chances. Particularly worrying is the team’s weakness after halftime; in the last five games, they have failed to score after the break and have not been successful in this phase. This points to possible fitness problems, insufficient tactical adjustments during the break, or a lack of mental robustness because opponents adjust better to Athletic in the second half. The personnel situation is also tense, with Iñaki Williams out with adductor problems and expected to return in mid-December, and Yeray Álvarez serving a long-term doping ban. Nico Williams therefore currently carries a lot of responsibility in attack, while alternatives such as Guruzeta and Berenguer have so far struggled to bring their impact to the pitch on a consistent basis. Coach Ernesto Valverde should therefore work on fitness and intensity around halftime, rehearse more flexible tactical changes, such as earlier substitutions and situational system adjustments, and rotate his offensive options more to reduce dependence on Nico Williams. In the short term, more controlled halftime talks and targeted substitutions could help make the second half more stable.
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Atletico Form & Record Check
The 1-3 defeat against Barcelona clearly showed Atlético Madrid where the limits of this team currently lie. After seven competitive wins in a row and an impressive defensive phase until the end of October, in which only one goal was conceded in the league, Atlético was clearly inferior at Spotify Camp Nou and found it difficult to defend against Raphinha, Lewandowski, and Olmo. Previously, the team had achieved strong results both in the league and internationally, including victory against Inter in the Champions League and clear league wins against Getafe, Oviedo, and Levante. Striker Sörloth ended his nine-game drought with a brace in the win against Oviedo, with both goals set up by Hancko. However, Simeone is concerned about the personnel situation. Johnny Cardoso injured his knee against Barcelona after only 15 minutes and had to be substituted, while Baena remained in the dressing room at half-time despite having scored the 1-0 goal. In addition, Llorente and Giménez are missing, while a comeback for Le Normand is at least a possibility. After the game, coach Diego Simeone had some strong words for Julián Álvarez, who has not yet made the expected impact. Álvarez has scored only one goal in the last five games and has been waiting for a goal away from home since mid-August. Simeone is demanding more presence from him in tackles and pressing. Atlético are fourth in the league with 31 points, just one point behind Villarreal but already eleven points behind Barcelona. The upcoming games against Athletic and PSV will be decisive in determining whether Atlético can regain the form of their previous winning streak and compete for the title in the long term.
Simeone is expected to stick with his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 system. Hancko could start alongside Lenglet in central defense, with Molina and Ruggeri on the flanks. Koke and Barrios are expected to play in defensive midfield, with Barrios having been rested recently. In attack, Álvarez is likely to form the central striker, supported by Griezmann, Giuliano, and Nico on the offensive wings and in the number 10 position. The thin squad remains a problem, with Baena out with thigh problems and Cardoso suffering a knee injury against Barcelona. In addition, three experienced defenders, Llorente, Giménez, and Le Normand, are out with injuries.
Bilbao – Atlético Head-to-head & Statistics
A direct comparison of the last five games paints a very clear picture with no draws: Atlético Madrid celebrated three wins, Athletic Bilbao won twice, and every encounter had a clear winner. Looking only at the La Liga matches, Atlético has dominated recently, winning 3-1 in April 2024, 1-0 in August 2024, and 1-0 again in March 2025, making it three league wins in a row. In the 2024 Copa del Rey, however, the balance of power shifted significantly, with Athletic winning 1-0 away and 3-0 at home in the semi-finals, giving the Basques a 4-1 aggregate victory and putting Atlético under massive pressure in this competition. Tactically, the games are usually close and defensive, with less than 3.5 goals scored in four of the five most recent encounters and 80% of games seeing fewer than 1.5 goals in the second half, suggesting that both coaches are more focused on defense after the break. Atlético are coming off a three-game winning streak in the league, but home advantage could still be an important factor, as San Mamés is traditionally considered a particularly difficult place for the Madrid side to play.
