Bayern Munich – FSV Mainz 05
Thomas Müller is set to make his 500th Bundesliga appearance – an impressive feat that even in Munich is not achieved every day. At the same time, Bayern, who are top of the table with 72 points, have what is perhaps their last chance to seal the title before the season finale. However, they are hosting Mainz 05, who surprised them 2-1 in the first leg and, despite being sixth (47 points), are only two points away from the Champions League zone. The starting position seems clear: Bayern recently won 4-0 in Heidenheim, keeping a clean sheet for the first time since February, while Mainz are without a win in five league games under Bo Henriksen. However, seven consecutive home league wins against Mainz do not automatically make the record champions invincible – as the first leg showed.
Bayern – Mainz info
- Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
- Date and time: 26.04.2025, 15:30
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 31)
Bayern form & record check
Mainz travels with three draws and two defeats in its luggage. Most recently, it drew 2-2 against Wolfsburg, before that 1-1 at Holstein Kiel. All five games saw at least two goals scored; Mainz scored in four of them but always conceded as well – their defense is particularly shaky from set pieces. The team has been waiting for a win away from home for weeks, which puts their already slim lead in the battle for Europe in jeopardy. Injuries to Leitsch, Dal, and Mwene also reduce the variability in the back three.
Predicted Bayern line-up (4-2-3-1): Urbig – Laimer, Dier, Stanišić, Guerreiro – Kimmich, Pavlović – Olise, Gnabry, Coman – Kane. Doubtful or injured: Müller, Neuer, Goretzka. If Davies is fit in time, Guerreiro will move into midfield; Musiala would be the first option for creative impetus.
Mainz in a 3-4-1-2: Zentner – Jenz, Kohr, Caci – da Costa, Sano, Amiri, Aaron – Lee – Burkardt, Weiper. Henriksen’s system remains flexible, with Kohr able to push forward into the build-up play. However, the absences of Leitsch, Dal, and Mwene will force improvisation, especially on the wings.
Mainz form & record check
Draws seem to be in short supply in this duel: Bayern have won three of the last five games, Mainz two. There have always been plenty of goals – never fewer than two, often more than 3.5. The 8-1 win in March 2024 remains spectacular, but more importantly, Bayern have won the first halves of the last four encounters, while Mainz have usually only found answers after the break.
Statistically, an offensive approach seems obvious: Over 2.5 goals have been scored in all of the last five games for both teams. The combination of Bayern’s attack led by Harry Kane and Mainz’s defensive problems (without Leitsch and Mwene) suggests this tip. “Both teams to score: Yes” seems plausible, as Bayern have always scored, but have not kept a clean sheet in four of their last five games, while Mainz have scored at least once in 80% of their games. Those who like it more specific can look at ‘Over 1.5 goals – 2nd half’: In 80% of Bayern’s games, at least two goals were scored after the break. The psychological framework fits: Mainz needs points for Europe, Bayern wants to wrap up the championship early – goals are therefore the rule rather than the exception.
H2H Bayern – Mainz Head-to-head comparison & statistics
It is striking that none of the last five meetings between Bayern and Mainz ended in a draw. Bayern won three times and Mainz twice. The last match in December 2024 ended in a narrow 2-1 win for Mainz, while Bayern triumphed 4-0 in the cup just a few weeks earlier.
There were goals galore in these encounters: at least two were scored in all five games, but usually more than three. Bayern’s 8-1 win in March 2024 remains particularly spectacular. Both teams have scored at least once in each of their last three games, but Mainz have always conceded a goal – a recurring theme in their recent record.
Interestingly, Bayern won the first halves of the last four encounters, allowing them to dominate early on – an aspect that may be attributed to the brisk start under Alexander Moj. Mainz, on the other hand, is still waiting for a successful first third, but has at least scored repeatedly in recent games.
A draw is therefore unlikely, and the risk always seems to be there – especially for spectators who like goals. But one thing is also clear: Mainz can beat Bayern when the momentum is right, as they did most recently in December. One thing is certain: those hoping for goals and momentum will rarely be disappointed in this match.
