The league leaders face the bottom team, but Mainz’s 2-1 win from last season, also on matchday 14, still looms large over this clash at the Allianz Arena. Bayern Munich welcomes 1. FSV Mainz 05 on Sunday, this time as the undefeated Bundesliga team with 37 points and 49 goals, already eight points ahead of RB Leipzig. Mainz travels to the Allianz Arena as the bottom team in the table, with six points and a goal difference of minus 13, and is under massive pressure in the battle to avoid relegation. In the league, Bayern have won eight consecutive home games against Mainz, including a 3-0 win at the Allianz Arena in April, which is reflected in the bookmakers’ assessment. Kompanys team, without Jamal Musiala and the suspended Luis Díaz, is also fresh off a 3-1 comeback win against Sporting, while Mainz, under new coach Urs Fischer and buoyed by a tough 1-1 draw in Poznan with only ten men, is still waiting for its first Bundesliga win after nine winless league games.
- Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
- Date and time: December 14, 2025, 5:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 14)
That’s why our tips deliberately look for value in goal bets rather than the result. We are confident in Bayern’s strong offense and Mainz’s vulnerable defense. Over 3.5 goals and over 1.5 goals before the break are based on Bayern’s 49 league goals and their habit of putting visitors under pressure early on, while both teams scoring reflects the livelier Mainz under Fischer, who fought and scored despite all their problems in Poznan.
Bayern form & record check
Bayern go into the game against Mainz as clear leaders, with 37 points and a goal difference of 40 after thirteen matchdays. They have won four of their last five league games and drawn once, opening up an eight-point gap to RB Leipzig and reflecting exactly the dominant control that the club’s management under Kompany had expected. Across all competitions, the picture is similar, with four wins from the last five games. The only downside remains the 3-1 defeat at Arsenal in the Champions League group stage, a sobering reminder at European level. Since then, Bayern have beaten St. Pauli 3-1, Union Berlin 3-2 in the cup, Stuttgart 5-0, and Sporting 3-1, often playing with efficiency rather than truly dominant performances. Statistically, recent games have been very open, with each of the last five producing more than two goals, and Bayern scoring in all of them, often in both halves. They have conceded in four of those games, including an own goal by Kimmich against Sporting, so the center-back pairing of Upamecano and Tah is working but not yet providing the absolute defensive control that Kompany would like. In terms of individual players, Kane and Laimer contributed to the victory in Stuttgart, while Gnabry’s Champions League goal underscored the ongoing discussions about his future. Upamecano remains the first choice in defense alongside Tah despite unresolved negotiations. Youngster Karl continues to score and could be the additional option from midfield. Musiala’s long-term absence and Boey’s illness have not derailed the results, but the squad’s depth could be tested in the coming weeks.
Under Kompany, Bayern are likely to line up in a familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Neuer in goal behind Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, and Davies. Kimmich and Pavlovic should operate as a double six in front of the back four, while Olise, Karl, and Diaz are expected to support Kane, who is almost certain to start as center forward. This is a predicted lineup, with Boey still out due to illness and Musiala missing with a broken fibula. Karl, who scored in the Champions League win against Sporting, is an option for the central role behind Kane. Upamecano and Tah are likely to remain the first choice pairing, while Goretzka and Gnabry offer different profiles from the bench should Kompany make adjustments during the game.
Mainz Form & Record Check
Mainz come to the Allianz Arena bottom of the Bundesliga table, with six points from thirteen games and already two points behind St. Pauli. The season is falling well short of expectations, with a run of nine league games without a win speaking volumes. Defensively, the team is vulnerable, failing to keep a clean sheet in 24 league games, and too often conceding goals from relatively simple situations. Offensively, Mainz are one of the weakest teams in the league, with eleven league goals and only 34 shots on target underlining how rarely they create clear chances, even if seven shots off the woodwork suggest a touch of bad luck. The recent 0-1 home defeat to Gladbach summed up a lot, decided by an own goal after mostly harmless offensive efforts. In the last five competitive games, there have been two draws and three defeats, no wins, and Mainz conceded a goal in each of these games. The 1-1 draw at home against Hoffenheim and the 1-1 draw in Poznan showed phases of stability, albeit without any real dominance. In contrast, the 0-1 defeat in Craiova and especially the 0-4 defeat in Freiburg stood out because they showed how quickly confidence can evaporate after setbacks. Urs Fischer’s debut in Poznan at least brought a clearer defensive organization, with Kawasaki scoring shortly after coming on as a substitute and Batz making several important saves to help Mainz secure a 1-1 draw despite Veratschnig’s sending off and half an hour with ten men. The point secured Mainz’s place in the Conference League, and they now sit eighth in the Conference League table with ten points from five games. Statistically, the recent run has been characterized by close, often scrappy games, with the total number of goals remaining below three in most of the last five games in all competitions. Nevertheless, Mainz have never led at halftime during this period and have not won any of these games. With Zentner, Caci, Mwene, Dal, and Amiri all missing, Fischer is likely to opt for a compact, counter-attacking approach initially.
Mainz are expected to stick with the 5-3-2 formation that Fischer chose for his compact debut in Poznan, with Batz likely to start in goal again in place of the injured Zentner. A back three of Hanche-Olsen, Kohr, and Leitsch should be flanked by Widmer and da Costa as wingbacks, assuming Widmer has recovered from his injury. The focus will once again be on a tight, disciplined block and aggressive wing pressing. Further forward, the predicted midfield trio of Sano, Maloney, and Lee will sit relatively deep and try to use Hollerbach and Weiper in transition situations. With Caci, Mwene, and Dal still unavailable and Amiri out with muscle problems, Fischer has limited options for major changes, so Kawasaki is more likely to remain the most important option off the bench than a candidate for the starting lineup.
Bayern – Mainz Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five meetings between Bayern Munich and Mainz, Bayern have won four and Mainz one, with no draws. The overall goal difference is 19-4 in Bayern’s favor, underlining the record champions’ clear dominance. Mainz’s only success came in December 2024 with a 2-1 home win, before Bayern responded with a 3-0 win in Munich in April 2025. These games were consistently high-scoring, with a total of 23 goals scored, an average of just under 4.6 per game, and every encounter exceeding the three-goal mark. The four Bayern victories ended 3-0, 4-0, 8-1, and 3-1, meaning Mainz conceded at least three goals in each defeat. Between 2023 and 2024, Munich recorded a series of three consecutive victories against the same opponent in the league and cup. From Mainz’s perspective, this pattern is uncomfortable, as they conceded goals in all five games and three or more in four of them, suggesting recurring structural problems against Bayern’s attack. Their only positive result, a 2-1 win in December 2024, came in the only relatively low-scoring game, so a more controlled tempo is likely to be their best chance of putting up resistance this time around as well. Interestingly, the timing of goals also plays a role in the head-to-head record, with data showing that Bayern tend to strike early, often leading at halftime, and in four of the five games, at least two goals were scored in the first half. This trend suggests that Kompany’s team could once again try to assert themselves early on, while Fischer’s Mainz will have to decide whether to absorb the initial pressure or risk another open, high-scoring scenario.
