Bayern Munich – Holstein Kiel
Our Bayern – Kiel tip is: Bayern scores over 3.5 goals – 1.62 odds
- The first leg was 6:2 to Bayern
- Bayern have scored 30 times in nine BL home games
- Kiel have already conceded 23 goals in nine BL away games
On Saturday afternoon, the Bundesliga clash between league leaders Munich and second-to-last Kiel awaits us. Bayern are currently six points ahead of second-placed Leverkusen with 48 points, while Kiel are two points ahead of bottom-placed Bochum and two points behind Heidenheim in the relegation place.
Bayern won 3-1 against Bratislava in the Champions League during the week and thus qualified for the next round as twelfth in the table. In the league, there was recently a 2-1 away win against SC Freiburg. Bayern still only have one defeat in this Bundesliga season. Kiel, on the other hand, drew 2-2 with VfL Wolfsburg on the last matchday. It is striking that Kiel has scored at least one goal in each of its Bundesliga away games this season. Whether this will continue or the home-strong Bavarians will win a shut-out victory, you will find out in our Bayern – Kiel tip.
Bayern – Kiel Info
- Date & Time: 01/02/2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Venue: Allianz-Arena, Munich
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 20
- TV broadcast/livestream: SKY
Bayern Form & Bilanz Check
FC Bayern Munich underlined their class in the Bundesliga’s first half of the season with a clear 6-1 win at Holstein Kiel. Jamal Musiala scored the third-earliest Bundesliga goal in club history after just 14 seconds. In the 2023/24 Bundesliga season, the record champions are in top form: with 48 points from 19 games, FCB is playing its fourth-best season in nine years – only three times have they scored more points at this point (2005/06: 50, 2013/14: 53, 2015/16: 52).
It is not only the results that speak for Bayern, but also the way they play. With 58 goals, FCB has the best offense in the league, while its defense is also unrivaled at the top with only 16 goals conceded. Only in the 2021/22 season did Munich score more after 19 games (61). No team has won more balls (190), and with an average line of 46.7 meters, Bayern wins the ball at higher levels than any other team. They are also clearly superior in possession: at 71.2 percent, Munich has the highest value in the league – since the start of data collection in 2013/14, they have only surpassed this rate once (71.3%).
FC Bayern is a force to be reckoned with at home against Bundesliga newcomers: since their own promotion in 1965, they have won 34 of 36 duels, the last 21 in a row. They have only lost points against Fortuna Düsseldorf (1:2 in January 1967) and SV Darmstadt (1:1 in November 1978).
Kane again and again
A special focus is on Harry Kane, who is about to play his 50th Bundesliga game. With 53 goals in this short time, no other player in league history has a better rate. In the first half of the season, he scored one of his seven Bundesliga hat-tricks in the 6-1 win against Kiel. In addition, Bayern have the most league-wide with seven substitute goals, together with VfL Wolfsburg.
Despite their attacking prowess, Bayern play fair: with 161 fouls, the team commits the second-fewest in the league. The combination of dominant play and defensive stability continues to make FCB the absolute favorite for the championship.
Bayern Facts & Analysis
- Best offense in the league
- Best defense in the league
- 34 of the last 36 duels against Bundesliga newcomers won
Kiel Form & record check
Holstein Kiel are having a challenging season as Bundesliga newcomers. With twelve points from their first 19 games, the club is one of the weakest promoted teams in the three-point era – only Greuther Fürth had even fewer, nine points, in 2012/13. They are not doing particularly well away from home: after nine away games, the Störche are still waiting for their first win (three draws, six defeats). The last time a Bundesliga newcomer had a comparable run without a win away from home was Energie Cottbus in 2000/01 (ten games).
The defense is one of the biggest issues. With 48 goals conceded, Kiel has the weakest defense in the league. Only Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin conceded as many goals as a Bundesliga newcomer in the 1986/87 season after 19 games. However, their offensive strengths are in contrast to this: substitute players have already scored 14 goals – only VfL Wolfsburg (16) are more effective here. Kiel have already scored eleven times in the final quarter of an hour, which only Bayern and Wolfsburg (twelve each) have bettered.
In the direct duel with FC Bayern, Kiel has positive memories of the 2020/21 DFB Cup, when they sensationally came out on top in a penalty shoot-out, but in the Bundesliga, the starting position is much more difficult.
Kiel against Bayern without Remberg
Tactically, Kiel plays deeper: at 39.3 meters, the team has the lowest average line of ball recoveries in the league, while FCB has the highest at 46.7 meters. There is also a stark difference in high ball wins: while Bayern has the most at 190, Kiel has the fewest at just 91.
Furthermore, the Storks are missing an important player in Nicolai Remberg due to a suspension. He was not only the Kiel player with the highest number of tackles won (58.6%), but also the player with the most tackles (181). The Kielers are a physically strong team in any case: with 239 fouls, they commit the third-most in the league.
So the battle to avoid relegation will continue to be a tough one for Holstein Kiel. But with their effectiveness in the final minutes and their ability to make a decisive impact from the bench, they have already shown that they can spring surprises in the Bundesliga.
Kiel Facts & Analysis
- Still without a Bundesliga away win
- Second-weakest promoted team since the three-point rule
- Weakest defense in the league
We expect Bayern to play in the 4-2-3-1 system again, managed by Vincent Kompany. If Bayern play to their usual home strength, they should not give Kiel a chance.
Kiel, on the other hand, will once again play in a 3-4-2-1 system under coach Marcel Rapp. If Kiel take anything away from Munich, it would be a miracle.
Bayern – Kiel head to head & statistics
In the two previous meetings between the two clubs in the Bundesliga and DFB Cup, Bayern won one game, while the other ended in a draw. The goal difference is 8:3 in favor of the record champions.
Direct comparison (H2H)
