With five league wins in a row, top of the table with 40 points and a fresh 2-1 comeback victory in the Champions League against Eintracht Frankfurt, Barcelona comes to Camp Nou with powerful momentum, where the duel with 15th-placed Osasuna awaits in round 16. Hansi Flick’s team has built up a four-point lead over Real Madrid in La Liga, and the betting market reflects this momentum, with Barcelona clearly ahead. In head-to-head comparisons, Barcelona has dominated this fixture recently with four wins in the last five meetings, including a 3-0 victory in March, but Osasuna’s 4-2 triumph in Pamplona last season is a reminder of how dangerous any hint of complacency would be. In terms of personnel and development, the trends continue, with Barcelona still looking title-worthy despite the absences of Araujo, Gavi, and Dani Olmo, Barcelona continues to look like title contenders, buoyed by an in-form Eric García, who has just extended his contract until 2031, as well as the impetus provided by Lamine Yamal and Ferran Torres. Meanwhile, Osasuna’s 15 points and negative goal difference underscore their bumpy start, even if the return of De Boyomo, Lucas Torró, and Aimar Oroz, while Benito remains sidelined, expands Lisci’s options.
- Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona
- Date and time: 12/13/2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 16)
With bookmakers seeing Barcelona as clear favorites at odds of around 1.2 and pricing a draw and away win at 7 and 12 respectively, the more interesting approach for betting is likely to be in the goal market rather than the classic result. Flick’s team is in a scoring mood after their 5-3 win at Betis, where Ferran shone with a hat trick, while the absence of Araujo and Osasuna’s resurgence thanks to Rubén García and Víctor Muñoz are arguments for over 3.5 goals, a strong first half for Barcelona, and the market for both teams to score.
Barcelona form & record check
Barcelona are in outstanding form in La Liga, with five wins in a row and leading the table with 40 points, four points ahead of Real Madrid. Flick’s team combine a high tempo in attack with efficiency, often turning early control into quick leads, even with a demanding schedule. The recent 3-1 wins against Alavés and Atlético Madrid underlined how well this team can pick up the pace when games get tighter. Across all competitions, the picture is largely positive, even if there are some rough edges. The 5-3 away win at Betis showed the offensive potential, with Ferran ruthless and Bardghji very present, but at the same time the defensive transitions looked messy. In the 2-1 comeback against Eintracht Frankfurt at Camp Nou, Koundé’s runs and the creativity of Rashford and Lamine Yamal shaped the game, but Barcelona started weakly again and needed the break to adjust their pressing and structure.
In their last five games, Barcelona have won four and lost one, with all games high-scoring and exceeding 2.5 goals. They have scored in each of these games, but have also conceded in every game and in every first half, which suggests problems with concentration and spacing rather than individual errors, especially when the full-backs push up very high. Flick is relying on an unusual axis, with Eric García organizing from deep and often moving into midfield, while Joan Garcia has retained the number one jersey despite Ter Stegen being back in team training. Raphinha carries additional responsibility as captain, and young players such as Lamine Yamal and Bardghji provide vertical impetus. In La Liga, Barcelona are currently exceeding expectations and, despite the injury list and the emotional strain of the Araujo case, lead with a healthy goal difference of 27. In Europe, however, the bar is higher, and the clear 3-0 defeat at Chelsea and prediction models that see them outside the predicted top eight show that, despite the domestic momentum, this project is still a work in progress. Without Araujo, Gavi, and Dani Olmo, the question remains as to how long this intensity can be maintained on a three-day cycle.
Barcelona are expected to stick with Flick’s preferred 4-2-3-1, with Joan García retaining his place in goal after the coach publicly declared him his number one, even with Ter Stegen close to a return. A defensive line built around Koundé, Cubarsí, and Balde should provide a solid foundation, while De Jong, Pedri, Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, and Lewandowski form the attacking axis. With Araujo still being rested and Gavi and Dani Olmo unavailable due to long-term injuries, Eric García is likely to be a key player once again, either partnering Cubarsí in defense or playing in a double pivot alongside De Jong, as he has done earlier this season. From the bench, players such as Fermín López, Ferran Torres, or Rashford could change the game.
Osasuna Form & Record Check
Osasuna travels to Camp Nou in mixed but slightly improved form in all competitions, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games. The 2-0 home win against Levante took some pressure off Alessio Lisci, while the 5-3 cup win at Ebro exposed both their offensive firepower and defensive vulnerability, preceded by a 2-2 draw at Mallorca and league defeats against Real Sociedad and Sevilla. The win against Levante in particular stood out as one of their most convincing league performances in recent memory, with intense high pressing, early dominance, and goals from Víctor Muñoz and Rubén García, complemented by solid work from Herrera. However, the bigger picture shows a team that usually scores but struggles to close out games, often conceding goals after halftime and remaining vulnerable even when they appear to be in control.
The league record remains fragile, with Osasuna in 15th place with 15 points, one point behind Real Sociedad and level with Valencia, so there is little room for error. They have picked up four points from their last three league games, which has stabilized the situation somewhat. Typically, the first halves are rather cautious, but after the break, the games open up more, which can leave the defense exposed. In terms of personnel, the return of Boyomo, Torró, and Oroz to full training after the game against Levante should help maintain continuity, while the long-term absence of Iker Benito and the still-limited Kike Barja limit the options on the wings. Ante Budimir and Sheraldo Becker give Osasuna depth up front, even if their supply fluctuates, which partly explains the irregular nature of their offensive performances.
Osasuna are likely to stick with their now familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, so our predicted starting eleven would see Herrera in goal, especially as Aitor Fernández has recently been absent from training due to fever, in front of Rosier, Catena, Boyomo, and Bretones. Torró and Moncayola would cover the midfield, while Rubén García, Oroz, and Víctor Muñoz would play behind Budimir. This structure gives Lisci two tight rows of four without the ball and clear reference points during transitions. The only confirmed absence in this scenario is Benito, who remains sidelined long-term with a cruciate ligament rupture, which is why the wing positions will once again fall to Víctor Muñoz and Rubén García, while Barja, who continues to follow an individual program, realistically remains more of an option from the bench. Boyomo, Torró, and Oroz have been declared fit after their recent injuries, while Becker and Moi Gómez are natural alternatives to freshen up the attack during the game.
Barcelona – Osasuna Head-to-Head & Statistics
In a direct comparison of recent history, Barcelona leads this duel in the last five encounters with four wins and one defeat, with no draws. Osasuna’s only win in this series came in 2024 with a 4-2 home victory, since when Barcelona responded with a convincing 3-0 win in March 2025, clearly demonstrating their numerical superiority in this recent head-to-head series. Three of these five games took place in Barcelona, two in Pamplona. Barcelona scored in all five games and also scored at least one goal in every second half, while Osasuna conceded in every game, suggesting that their defense has not been able to cope with this matchup so far. Four of the five games ended with at least two goals, while four also remained below four goals, so the number of goals is usually lively without getting completely out of hand.
Looking at the sequence, Barcelona put together a run of three wins between 2023 and early 2024, including narrow league victories and a Super Cup semifinal, a phase that saw Osasuna suffer three consecutive defeats in this fixture. Osasuna’s subsequent victory in 2024 broke this pattern, making the psychological picture somewhat more nuanced than the raw numbers suggest. The first halves tended to be cautious, with the last three matches producing at most one goal before the break, and the decisive moments usually coming after the restart, generally in Barcelona’s favor. Both coaches are likely to have this pattern in mind, as it was the late stages of the game that repeatedly tipped the balance in Barcelona’s favor.
