Key Facts
- Augsburg (15th, 14 points) is only two points ahead of Mainz; Union (9th, 22) can close in on Freiburg with a win and stay at the top.
- FCA is coming off a 4-0 loss in Gladbach, has won only once in five league games and has failed to score five times after the break; Matsima and Gouweleeuw are out.
- Union has scored in each of its last five competitive games after the break and has not conceded a goal in that period; Jeong and Ljubicic saved the day late on in the 2-2 draw with Mainz.
- In head-to-head matches, Augsburg has scored in each of the last five encounters, yet four games in a row have seen fewer than 2.5 goals; Union has failed to score in five games before the break.
- At odds of around 2.8, a Union win or double chance looks attractive, backed by seven points from five games; Gregoritsch’s return (31 FCA goals) keeps “both teams to score” alive against Union’s 80% goal conceded rate.
A rare Thursday night at the WWK Arena brings the 17th Bundesliga matchday to a close, and both teams have something to lose. FC Augsburg, in fifteenth place under Manuel Baum, welcomes 1. FC Union Berlin, who are in ninth place under Steffen Baumgart. Augsburg have 14 points – one behind Wolfsburg and two ahead of Mainz – so their cushion above the relegation zone is slim. Union has 22 points, just one step behind Freiburg, and could keep the momentum going for the upper half of the table with a win. Augsburg was defeated 4-0 in Mönchengladbach on Sunday, which has taken away some of the calm under Baum. Union showed grit in their 2-2 draw with Mainz after trailing 0-2, with Jeong and Ljubicic scoring, and Van Den Bosch’s summer transfer is already confirmed. Augsburg has come out on top in recent head-to-head matches, winning three of the last five, but Union won the last game here 2-1. The betting market also looks tight.
- Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg
- Date and time: January 15, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 17)
With a fairly balanced betting market, Union is still at 2.8 – which seems generous when you consider their strength after the break, most recently underlined by their late comeback from 0-2 to 2-2 against Mainz. Augsburg is coming off a 4-0 thrashing in Gladbach and will have to do without Matsima and Gouweleeuw; so “Union Berlin wins” and the slightly safer double chance both fit the picture.
Augsburg form & record check
Augsburg is stuck in 15th place in the table with 14 points going into matchday 17, and the situation seems more tight than hopeless. Wolfsburg is only one point ahead, Mainz two points behind, so the mood can quickly change after a decent result. Under Manuel Baum, the approach seems deliberately pragmatic, but with only one win in the last five league games, calculations are being made on a weekly basis. The last game, a 4-0 defeat in Mönchengladbach, was a setback, both in terms of the result and the impact. Augsburg lost important duels early on and never really settled down after that. Before that, the 0-0 draw at home against Bremen was well organized but lacked bite, and in the 1-0 win in Frankfurt, the team once again lacked punch in the final third. The bright spot remains the 2-0 home win against Leverkusen, a rare all-around harmonious performance. A pattern is emerging in the second halves, with games often flattening out. Augsburg has played without scoring in the last five league games after the break, and every second half has remained below 1.5 goals. This smacks of control without any real offensive sharpness, or of heavy legs when you have to chase the game. Without Matsima and Gouweleeuw and with Rexhbecaj on special leave, Baum is relying heavily on structure, and the return of Gregoritsch could help turn pressure into goals again.
Baum is likely to stick with his pragmatic 3-4-2-1 formation, with Dahmen in goal and a makeshift back three of Banks, Schlotterbeck, and Zesiger. With Matsima and Gouweleeuw still out, Augsburg could opt for a deep block and then switch quickly to the wings, where Wolf and Giannoulis are the most likely candidates for the starting lineup.
In midfield, the absence of Rexhbecaj could mean that Fellhauer remains alongside Massengo, giving Augsburg more legs for second balls than pure control. Keitel is still ineligible to play in the Europa League, but that shouldn’t affect this league selection. In front of them, Rieder and Claude Maurice seem most likely to act as link-up players, feeding Gregoritsch as the target man. Nevertheless, this is a predicted starting eleven, not a confirmed one.
Union Berlin Form & Record Check
Union Berlin goes into matchday 17 in ninth place with 22 points, close enough to sniff the top half of the table, but not yet secure. Freiburg is only one point ahead, Gladbach three behind, two results, and the whole neighborhood quickly shifts. The league has been turbulent lately, with two wins, one draw, and two losses, often by narrow margins. Since the beginning of December, they have been oscillating between fierce and sloppy. The 2-2 draw against Mainz captured this well, with an hour of passive play followed by a much sharper performance, with Jeong and Ljubicic salvaging a point after falling behind 0-2. Before the break, they beat Cologne 1-0 with disciplined defending and at times dominated Leipzig at home in a 3-1 win, but the 3-1 defeat in Wolfsburg once again exposed their soft work in the first half. In the DFB Cup, the 3-2 defeat to Bayern in the round of 16 hurt because Union put up a good fight but were too open at crucial moments, and in a knockout game there are no second chances. The numbers show a clear pattern: they have scored in each of their last five competitive games, every time in the second half. In this series, they also did not concede a goal after the break. Interestingly, this points to Baumgart’s adjustments in the game, but it also shows a recurring weakness, the slow start. Union have scored only one goal before the break in these five games, and four games have gone over 2.5 goals, a much more open rhythm than the classic Union pattern. Set pieces remain a way in, Querfeld on penalties and Doekhi as a threat, while injuries to Rothe, Skov, and Skarke could limit the options on the wings in Augsburg.
Baumgart is likely to stick with Union’s familiar 3-4-2-1 formation, with Rönnow in goal and a back three of Doekhi, Querfeld, and Leite. Juranovic and Köhn seem the most likely full-backs, with Khedira starting alongside Kemlein in central midfield. In front of them, Jeong and Burcu could operate as creative players behind Ilic, who provides the focal point as the target man. According to the list, Rothe is unavailable due to injury, so the left side is likely to rely once again on Köhn’s runs and Leite’s cover rather than a more natural option as a left-sided player. Skov’s absence also suggests that Jeong will remain high between the lines, while the absences of Skarke and Bogdanov could somewhat diminish the late speed coming off the bench. Querfeld remains a key figure, including on penalties.
Augsburg – Union Berlin Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five encounters, Augsburg has had the slight edge in terms of results, with three wins for Augsburg, one for Union, and one draw. The most recent twist came in May 2025, when Union won 2-1 in Augsburg. Before that, Augsburg had the upper hand, with a 2-0 away win in January 2025, then 2-0 in 2024 and 1-0 in 2023, as well as a 1-1 draw in 2023. There is a clear pattern when it comes to goals: Augsburg has scored in all five games, a streak of five games, and Union has conceded in all five. Nevertheless, it rarely gets open, with under 3.5 goals five times in a row and under 2.5 goals four times in a row, so the margins were mostly close. The first halves are also often cautious, with under 1.5 goals before the break in three consecutive direct duels. The pattern before the break is particularly striking: Union has never scored in the last five games before the break, while Augsburg has not conceded a goal in the first half during the same period. Augsburg was also unbeaten in four consecutive games in this fixture before suffering defeat in May 2025, suggesting that they often fare well in this matchup. Interestingly, Union’s best chance could be to stay close early on and then apply more pressure later in the game.
