Key Facts
- Augsburg (13th/19 points) and St. Pauli (17th/14) face each other in a six-point game; with HSV, Mainz, and Heidenheim close behind, any result could tip the balance.
- The 2-1 win in Munich after late goals from Chaves and Massengo gave Augsburg confidence, but outliers such as the 0-4 defeat in Gladbach show Baum’s lack of consistency.
- St. Pauli has not won in five Bundesliga games; the 1-1 draw against Leipzig only came about thanks to Kaars’ penalty in the 90th minute.
- Both teams are weakened in terms of personnel: Augsburg are missing Gouweleeuw and Matsima in defense and Jakic in midfield, while St. Pauli are without Nemeth, Metcalfe, and Hountondji.
- In a direct comparison, both teams have scored in each of the last three encounters; moreover, Augsburg has never won the first half, while St. Pauli has never been behind at halftime.
- The market sees Augsburg as the home favorite (odds 2.0), and the data supports cautious betting: In 80% of both teams’ most recent games, the first half has seen fewer than 1.5 goals.
The 2-1 coup in Munich has given FC Augsburg a noticeable boost, and it is with this feeling that they go into the direct duel with FC St. Pauli on matchday 20 of the Bundesliga at the WWK Arena. Manuel Baum welcomes Alexander Blessin in a six-point game: Augsburg are 13th with 19 points, level on points with Wolfsburg and one point ahead of Hamburger SV, while St. Pauli are 17th with 14 points, one point behind Mainz and one point ahead of Heidenheim. Recent form explains the trend, even if Augsburg have not always been consistent under Baum. In Munich, Chaves and Massengo turned the game around late on, handing Bayern their first defeat in the league. St. Pauli recently earned a point in a 1-1 draw with Leipzig thanks to a penalty from Kaars, has added Rasmussen in midfield and now faces Leverkusen in the DFB Cup quarterfinals. The match in September ended 2-1 in favor of St. Pauli.
- Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg
- Date and time: January 31, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 20)
Augsburg’s surprising 2-1 win in Munich has boosted confidence, so the hosts are still seen as the favorites. The market rates Augsburg as the clear home favorite at 2.0 against a St. Pauli team that has not won recently and appears weakened by Nemeth’s absence. With Metcalfe and Hountondji also missing and the derby level appearing rather subdued recently, “Both teams to score: No” and Under 2.5 fit the bill well, especially with the cup coming up, despite Rasmussen’s signing.
Augsburg Form & Record Check
Augsburg comes into the game with a rare boost of confidence after a 2-1 win at Bayern Munich, a result that was based on discipline and a relentless spell after the hour mark. This highlight comes alongside a 2-2 draw at home to Freiburg and a 1-1 draw with Union Berlin, plus a dull 0-0 draw with Werder Bremen. The 4-0 defeat in Mönchengladbach, when the structure fell apart, remains problematic. Interestingly, their recent games tend to wake up late. In four of their last five Bundesliga games, there were under 1.5 goals in the first half, while there were over 1.5 goals in the same number of games overall. This suggests that the team tends to grow into the game rather than controlling it early on. Defensively, the trend is less favorable, with Augsburg conceding goals in four of those five games, meaning that leads rarely seem secure. Augsburg are 13th in the table with 19 points, level on points with Wolfsburg and just one point ahead of Hamburger SV, so momentum counts just as much as aesthetics. The injury list is hitting the backbone of the team: Matsima and Gouweleeuw are missing in defense, Jakic in midfield, and Rexhbecaj is on special leave. Set pieces could once again be a lifeline, as Chaves showed in Munich.
After their statement 2-1 win in Munich, Augsburg are expected to stick with Baum’s 3-4-2-1 formation. Dahmen should start behind a back three of Chaves, Schlotterbeck, and Zesiger, with Wolf and Giannoulis providing width. Fellhauer and Massengo are the most likely central pairing, while Rieder and Claude-Maurice could shuttle between the lines behind Essende. The big question mark lies in the center: Gouweleeuw and Matsima are still out, which limits the rotation in the back three and makes the trio of Chaves, Schlotterbeck, and Zesiger a sensible prediction. In midfield, Jakic is still unavailable and Rexhbecaj is on special leave, so Keitel or Maier would be the obvious alternatives if Augsburg needs fresh legs.
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
St. Pauli travels to Augsburg still stuck in the relegation zone, 17th with 14 points, and the gaps are painfully narrow. Mainz is only one point ahead, Heidenheim only one behind, so every draw feels both useful and frustrating. They haven’t won in their last five Bundesliga games, with three draws showing how difficult it is for them to tip games in their favor. Most recently, there was a 1-1 draw at home against Leipzig, which summed up their month well. They stayed in the game and showed nerves of steel late on when Kaars converted a penalty in the 90th minute to earn a point. The downside is that St. Pauli often needs such late moments because their attacking phases can be too short and they tend to chase the rhythm rather than dictate it. The 0-0 draw in the derby against HSV was widely described as uninspired, and the 0-0 draw in Mainz told a similar story, with too much caution and too little punch. A clear pattern in their league form is how long these games remain balanced, with tight first halves and few early breakthroughs. This keeps them competitive, but also reduces the game to a few decisive moments. Even in defeats, there have been signs of fighting spirit. The 3-2 defeat in Dortmund showed that they can strike against top teams, but the 2-1 defeat in Wolfsburg once again highlighted how even the smallest defensive mistakes are punished. Injuries haven’t helped, with Nemeth, Metcalfe, and Hountondji unavailable, while Rasmussen’s arrival could bring much-needed structure. The cup quarterfinal at Leverkusen is a welcome distraction, but the league now demands points.
Interestingly, Blessin is likely to stick with his familiar 3-4-2-1, with Vasilj in goal and a back three likely to consist of Ando, Wahl, and Mets, especially with Nemeth still out. The wingbacks are expected to be Saliakas on the right and Pyrka on the left, giving St. Pauli width, while three center backs stabilize the defense. In midfield, the prediction points to Sands and Smith as the double pivot, with Sinani and Fujita as the two narrow playmakers behind Jones. With Metcalfe and Hountondji missing, the depth of the bench could become more important, and new signing Rasmussen would be an option to change the tempo later on. This remains a predicted starting lineup, not a confirmed one.
Augsburg – St. Pauli Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last three encounters have been perfectly balanced: FC Augsburg has one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring five goals and conceding four. The most recent meeting in September 2025 went to FC St. Pauli, with a final score of 2-1. Before that, the duel in February 2025 ended 1-1. The older reference point is 2024, when Augsburg won 3-1. Goals have been a constant factor. Both teams have scored in all three games, and both have conceded in all three games, a pattern that is hard to overlook. In each encounter, there have been over 1.5 goals in total, and in two of the three, the game has exceeded 2.5 goals. Even when the game was evenly matched, as in February 2025, it rarely felt sterile, but rather controlled. Interestingly, the early stages against Augsburg have evolved. Augsburg has not won the first half in any of these three games, while FC St. Pauli has never trailed at halftime. Another recurring trend is that there were no draws in the second half after the break in this sample, suggesting that the games tend to open up and be decided late rather than ending in a stalemate.
