Key Facts
- Augsburg is once again facing the classic end-of-season slump, just when staying in the league is within reach.
- Personnel weaknesses in both defenses: Augsburg without Schlotterbeck (suspended) and Matsima; Hoffenheim without Machida, Gendrey, and Hlozek.
- Hoffenheim has conceded at least one goal in each of its last five league games — so their status as clear away favorites seems questionable.
- Fisnik Asllani (9 goals) and Andrej Kramaric carry a lot of responsibility in Hoffenheim’s attack, while the defense is shaky.
- Head-to-head: Hoffenheim has been clearly superior in the last five meetings (no Augsburg wins), though four of those games were high-scoring (☻1.5 goals).
- Statistically, a bet on Over 2.5 goals is supported: Augsburg’s last five games have all exceeded 1.5 goals, and both teams have recently averaged around 3.0 goals per match.
Manuel Baum heads into Friday night’s match aiming to break a familiar Augsburg pattern: a dip in form toward the end of the season once survival seems within reach. Hoffenheim’s 3-0 victory in the first leg still looms large over this matchup, as it contributed to the end of Augsburg’s previous manager’s tenure. That adds a bit more tension to the clash on Matchday 29 at the WWK Arena than the standings might suggest at first glance. Both teams have managed to secure only four points each from their last five league matches, so neither is coming into the game with much momentum. The difference lies in the pressure weighing on them: Augsburg is under pressure from the teams immediately behind them, while Hoffenheim aims to defend fifth place and keep pace with Stuttgart.
- Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg
- Date and time: April 10, 2026, 8:30 PM
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 29)
The betting market clearly favors Hoffenheim, but both defenses look too patchwork for a clear away bet to pay off. Augsburg will be without the suspended Keven Schlotterbeck and Chrislain Matsima, while Hoffenheim is missing Koki Machida, Valentin Gendrey, and Adam Hlozek, and the visitors have conceded at least one goal in five consecutive Bundesliga matches. Over 2.5 goals is therefore the most obvious pick.
Augsburg Form & Record Check
Augsburg left Hamburg with a 1-1 draw that felt a bit meager. Arthur Chaves scored, Michael Gregoritsch had an unusually honest moment when he squandered a promising free kick by admitting his own foul, and Manuel Baum’s team subsequently failed to capitalize on Hamburg’s red card to secure three points. That aptly summed up their recent league form: competitive enough to avoid slipping down the table, but not precise enough to dominate games. Their recent run has been inconsistent: a 2-0 home win against Cologne suggested stability, but losses to Leipzig, Dortmund, and Stuttgart showed how quickly the structure can start to wobble. Friday’s match will also be shaped by personnel issues, as Keven Schlotterbeck is suspended and Chrislain Matsima remains sidelined, meaning Baum will likely have to rely on Jeffrey Gouweleeuw or Noahkai Banks to stabilize the back line.
Augsburg is expected to line up in their usual 3-4-2-1 formation, though this is a prediction and not a confirmed starting lineup. Finn Dahmen – 1 is expected to start in goal, with Arthur Chaves – 34, Jeffrey Gouweleeuw – 6, and Cédric Zesiger – 16 in front of him, while Marius Wolf – 27 and Dimitrios Giannoulis – 13 provide width on the flanks. The biggest question mark in this lineup is Keven Schlotterbeck’s suspension; in addition, Chrislain Matsima and Yannik Keitel remain sidelined. Jeffrey Gouweleeuw – 6 is the most likely replacement, while Noahkai Banks would be another option. In midfield, Fabian Rieder – 32 could play alongside Robin Fellhauer – 19, with Anton Kade – 30 and Alexis Claude-Maurice – 20 as attacking midfielders behind Michael Gregoritsch – 38.
Hoffenheim Form & Record Check
Hoffenheim most recently lost 1-2 at home to Mainz, a match that once again highlighted the team’s attacking qualities but also its defensive instability. Fisnik Asllani scored the equalizer, his ninth Bundesliga goal, and remains the subject of transfer rumors, but Christian Ilzer’s team still conceded the decisive goal and has allowed at least one goal in each of their last five league matches. This makes the label “away favorites” seem somewhat exaggerated: While there was a 4-2 win in Heidenheim, that was accompanied by a lackluster 0-1 loss to St. Pauli, a 1-1 draw against Wolfsburg, and a decisive defeat in Leipzig. Without Adam Hlozek and the injured Koki Machida and Valentin Gendrey, too much responsibility falls on Andrej Kramaric, Asllani, and goalkeeper Oliver Baumann, who repeatedly have to bail out unstable performances.
This prediction sees Hoffenheim lining up in a 4-1-3-2 formation, though this is, of course, only an estimate. With Koki Machida and Valentin Gendrey still out, the back four is likely to consist of Vladimír Coufal – 34, Ozan Kabak – 5, Albian Hajdari – 21, and Bernardo – 13, with Oliver Baumann – 1 expected in goal behind them. Further up the field, Wouter Burger – 18 is expected to take over defensive midfield, with Grischa Prömel – 6, Fisnik Asllani – 11, and Alexander Prass – 22 operating in front of him to support Tim Lemperle – 19 and Bazoumana Touré – 29. Adam Hlozek remains sidelined, which is why this potential lineup will likely rely heavily on Fisnik Asllani – 11, who has recently drawn attention with strong goal-scoring performances in the Bundesliga.
Augsburg – Hoffenheim Head-to-Head & Statistics
Hoffenheim has had the upper hand in this matchup for some time now. They are unbeaten in the last five meetings, winning three and drawing two. Augsburg has not secured a single victory during this stretch. The first-leg Bundesliga match in November 2025 ended 3-0 in favor of Hoffenheim, while the league matches in March 2025 and November 2024 ended in a 1-1 draw and a scoreless tie, respectively. Looking back a bit further, the same picture emerges: Hoffenheim won a friendly in January 2025 3-1, and the oldest match in this sample, also from 2024, ended 3-1. Across all five matches, Hoffenheim scored in four games, with more than 1.5 goals scored in four of them. Interestingly, four of the five second halves were evenly matched, meaning the decisive moments usually occurred in the first half.
