Augsburg’s historic 0-6 home defeat against RB Leipzig and their embarrassing cup exit against second division side VfL Bochum have put FC Augsburg in a critical situation. With only seven points and in 15th place, the team is dangerously close to the relegation zone, while coach Sandro Wagner is coming under increasing pressure. The injury crisis, especially the loss of captain Jeffrey Gouweleeuw due to knee problems, further weakens an already struggling team structure. Borussia Dortmund, under Niko Kovač, has stabilized after a bumpy start to the season, winning four and losing one of its last five league games. Despite absences such as Bensebaini and Emre Can, BVB recently showed nerves of steel in the DFB Cup; players such as Guirassy and Silva, who has been impressive as a substitute, could play important roles. Previous head-to-head matches give Augsburg some hope: FCA won both home games against Dortmund in the last two and a half years (October 2024: 2-1; March 2025: 1-0). Statistically, four of the last five encounters saw goals from both sides, and there were always more than 1.5 goals. The visitors are clear favorites on the betting market, reflecting the difference in form between the two teams.
- Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg
- Date and time: October 31, 2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 9)
Given the form curves, the injury situation at Augsburg, and the offensive strength of both teams, there is much to suggest a high-scoring game with goals on both sides. Dortmund are the favorites, but a clear shutout seems unlikely. Over 2.5 goals is the primary single bet, as both teams show defensive vulnerabilities and score goals themselves. Both teams to score (BTTS) is also highly likely, supported by Augsburg’s recent scoring rate and Dortmund’s occasional defensive lapses. For a combination bet with higher risk and return, Dortmund win + BTTS is a good option. Special markets such as over 1.5 goals in the first half are interesting because Dortmund tends to score early, while Augsburg scores more often later in the game; similarly, BTTS in the second half could offer value. The market odds for Dortmund are around 1.70; Over/BTTS combinations offer better value. Conservative: Single bets on Over 2.5 and BTTS; combined bets only with reduced stakes.
Augsburg Form & Record Check
FC Augsburg are in a difficult phase, sitting in 15th place with only seven points: three competitive defeats in a row and a historic 0-6 home defeat are weighing heavily on the team. The defense is particularly vulnerable in the second half; in the last five competitive games, they have conceded at least one goal in each game, often after the break. The cup defeat against Bochum (0-1) in front of their home crowd has exacerbated the situation. Coach Sandro Wagner is under pressure, which is also noticeable in terms of tactics and personnel. Although there have been positive results, such as a 3-1 win against Wolfsburg and a 1-1 draw in Cologne, these seem to be more of a flash in the pan. The absence of captain Gouweleeuw due to knee problems further weakens the defense. In the short term, Augsburg needs to stabilize its defense through clearer assignments and better tackling, especially after the break. Physical and mental preparation are crucial to prevent the team from collapsing after halftime. In terms of personnel, alternatives in central defense and tactical flexibility (more defensive orientation, more compact midfield) should be considered, otherwise there is a real risk of relegation.
Augsburg is expected to start in a 3-4-2-1 formation. Dahmen will be in goal, with Matsima, Schlotterbeck, and Zesiger forming the back three in front of him. Captain Gouweleeuw is out with knee problems, which leaves a hole in the defense. Wolf and Giannoulis are expected to play on the wings, with Rexhbecaj and Massengo stabilizing the central midfield. In attack, Gharbi and Rieder could play behind striker Tietz to create danger on the wings. The lineup is a prediction; the final formation will only be decided shortly before kickoff.
Dortmund Form & Record Check
Dortmund has shown mixed results recently: two wins, two draws, and one defeat in the league. The team scores regularly (at least one goal in five games), but is vulnerable defensively, conceding at least one goal in four of five games—the first half in particular has been unstable. In the DFB Cup, BVB prevailed on penalties after a 1-1 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt; in the league, they narrowly beat Cologne 1-0 with a late goal, and internationally, they showed their offensive strength with a 4-2 win in Copenhagen. Dortmund are currently in fourth place with 17 points, level on points with Leverkusen and just one point behind Stuttgart. Several absences are weighing on the squad: Bensebaini (back), Emre Can (adductors), and Duranville (shoulder); Drewes and Özcan are not eligible to play. Guirassy appears to be injured, and his participation is questionable; Silva could start. Kovač must above all increase the team’s strength in tackles and discipline in the first half to compensate for their defensive vulnerability. Offensive potential is there, but personnel problems and defensive gaps make the game open—success depends on whether the defense can be stabilized in the short term and key players are available.
Niko Kovač is likely to start with a back three: Anselmino, Anton, and Schlotterbeck in central defense; Gregor Kobel, who showed nerves of steel in the penalty shootout against Frankfurt, is set to start in goal. Pascal Groß and Marcel Sabitzer are expected to play in defensive midfield, with Ryerson on the right and Svensson on the left. The starting lineup in attack is still open: Guirassy is injured, which is why Silva or Beier are possible options as a deep-lying striker/central attacker, flanked by Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi. Emre Can is out with adductor problems, while Bensebaini and Duranville are also injured. Despite these absences, Dortmund have enough quality to field their planned formation.
Augsburg – Dortmund Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent record over five games is even: two wins each for Augsburg and Dortmund and one draw. What is striking is the consistency in scoring—both teams have scored in each of these games, and BVB has not gone four games without conceding a goal. Decisions are often made in the second half; at half-time, the score is often still close. This suggests tactical changes after the break due to substitutions, fitness advantages, or individual mistakes. Augsburg won the last two direct duels (October 2024: 2-1 at home; March 2025: 1-0 away), which gives FCA confidence. Dortmund previously demonstrated its offensive quality with a 5-1 win in May 2024. Overall, the games were moderately high-scoring: four of five games had fewer than four goals. Augsburg is a tough opponent in these matches, particularly efficient in the first half (scoring in four of five games). Dortmund remains dangerous throughout the 90 minutes but has difficulty keeping a clean sheet. Therefore, a close game with goals on both sides and a possible decision in the second half is to be expected.
