FC Augsburg – RB Leipzig
Our Augsburg – Leipzig prediction is: draw – 3.55 odds
- Three of the last four direct duels in Augsburg ended in a draw
- Leipzig won only one of the last seven Bundesliga away games
- Five of the eight Bundesliga duels ended in a draw in Augsburg
A crucial duel is coming up in the WWK Arena this Friday evening, when FC Augsburg welcomes the Champions League contenders, RB Leipzig. The Fuggerstadt team are in impressive form under coach Jess Thorup – they have not been beaten in five games and have worked their way into a secure mid-table position with 27 points. Defensive stability has been the key to their success, as the recent 0-0 draw at Mainz 05 underlined.
Leipzig, on the other hand, have to rebuild their defense after captain Willi Orban’s red card in the 2-0 win against St. Pauli. Coach Marco Rose faces the challenge of stopping the sloppy turnovers of recent games. With 36 points and fourth place in the table, RB is on course for the Champions League, but the gap between them and their pursuers VfB Stuttgart is only one point. Interestingly, while Augsburg is only two points behind Dortmund, the Saxons are also only three points ahead of Frankfurt in third place. You can find out who will win this game in our Augsburg – Leipzig tip.
Augsburg – Leipzig info
- Stadium: WWK Arena, Augsburg
- Date and time: 14.02.2025, 20:30
- Competition: Bundesliga, match day 22
- TV broadcast: SKY
Augsburg form & record check
FC Augsburg are in remarkably stable form under coach Jess Thorup. Their most recent Bundesliga performances show a significant increase in defensive stability – the goalless draw against Mainz last time out was their second consecutive draw. Only their cup elimination by Stuttgart (0-1) has recently dampened their positive development.
The defense is stabilizing
The new defensive orientation of the Fuggerstadt team is particularly interesting, which is also reflected in the statistics: In the last five games, there were noticeably few goals, 80% of the games ended with less than 2.5 goals. This newfound stability has helped the team to 12th place in the table – and a comfortable three-point lead over the relegation zone, which is now occupied by Union Berlin.
You might think that Thorup’s team has now fulfilled its potential, but the Danish coach is already thinking bigger. “You can and must dream,” he was recently quoted as saying. With new signing Cedric Zesiger, who has noticeably strengthened the defense, and a greater sense of team spirit, looking up seems entirely justified. They are just two points behind Dortmund – an interesting starting point for the coming weeks.
Augsburg facts & analysis
- Two consecutive league draws
- Under three goals in four of the last five games
- Won last home game
Augsburg are expected to stick with the recently successful 3-4-2-1 formation in the upcoming home game against RB Leipzig. Coach Thorup can choose from a full squad as there are no injuries or suspensions. Dahmen will be in goal again, standing out for his defensive stability. The back three will be Matsima, Gouweleeuw and Schlotterbeck. In midfield, Jakić and Onyeka will control the center, flanked by Wolf and Claude-Maurice. On the offensive side, the duo Kömür and Essende will be supported by the central striker.
Leipzig Form & record Check
RB Leipzig finally overcame their minor form crisis with a 2-0 home win over St. Pauli. After four Bundesliga games without a win, the Saxons put in a convincing performance, particularly in the first half, in which Xavi Simons and Benjamin Šeško scored the decisive goals. However, the red card for captain Willi Orban, who will be suspended for the upcoming away game in Augsburg, tarnishes the important success.
The offense falters
Marco Rose’s team have now climbed to 4th place in the table, but with only a one-point lead over VfB Stuttgart, they are still under pressure. Interestingly, Leipzig have shown a noticeable pattern in the second half – in 80% of their last five games, they have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in the second half. This lack of penetration after the break could still prove to be a problem.
With the in-form attackers Šeško and Openda, RB has enormous offensive potential, but consistency is still lacking. The three-point gap to third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt shows that there is still room for improvement. It remains to be seen whether the team can carry the momentum from the St. Pauli game forward and consolidate their position in the Champions League zone.
Leipzig Facts & Analysis
- 4th place in the table
- Four-game winless streak ended
- Only one win in last seven away games
RB Leipzig are expected to field the tried and tested 3-4-2-1 system, but with an important change in defense. With captain Orban serving a one-match suspension, Klostermann is likely to move into the back three. Coach Rose’s team have shown stability again after the 2-0 win over St. Pauli, even if the defense may lack some leadership due to Orban’s absence.
The Kampl/Haidara duo seems set in midfield, while Šeško will likely be the striker again after his strong performance. It will be interesting to see whether Rose will again rely on the Simons/Nusa combination in attacking midfield, who have worked well together recently.
Augsburg – Leipzig head to head & statistics
The direct duels between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig traditionally promise goal-festivals. In the last five encounters, an average of 4.4 goals have been scored per game – a remarkable rate.
Leipzig have clearly dominated the more recent encounters: they have won three of the last five games, with two ending in a draw. The 4-0 win in September 2024 was particularly impressive. Before that, there was a 2-2 draw in Augsburg (February 2024) and a 3-0 win for RB (September 2023).
The goal guarantee in these duels is interesting: at least three goals were scored in all five games. Leipzig scored in every game, while Augsburg conceded at least one goal in each of these games. Also noteworthy: 80% of the games were already high-scoring at half-time – with more than one goal in the first half.
The WWK Arena was no bulwark for the Fuggerstadters either: Augsburg only managed to get one point out of the two home games in this series (2:2 and 3:3). You might think that Leipzig’s attacking style would cause the FCA particular problems.
It remains to be seen whether this goal-scoring trend will continue in the next game. In any case, the statistics speak for themselves: there have never been fewer than 2.5 goals in the last five encounters.
