Atletico Madrid – Villarreal
Atlético Madrid welcomes Villarreal CF to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Saturday evening in a match with very different prospects. While the visitors sit third in the table with seven points, Atlético are surprisingly in 17th place after picking up just two points from three games. The last meeting in January ended 1-1, which reflects the recent history between the two teams. Villarreal have never beaten Atlético in their last five encounters, but have only lost twice. It is noteworthy that in all five encounters, at least two goals were scored and both teams scored. Simeone’s team is plagued by significant personnel problems, as in addition to the long-term absence of Giménez, Thiago Almada is now also out after suffering a muscle injury while on duty with the Argentine national team. Álex Baena is still out after his appendectomy. Villarreal will be without Logan Costa and Willy Kambwala, but they have a coach in Marcelino who is good at preparing his team for such matches. Despite their poor start to the season, the bookmakers see Atlético as clear favorites, which puts additional pressure on Simeone. The Argentine recently admitted that there was “no justification” for the meager two points.
- Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
- Date and time: 13.09.2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 4)
Atletico Form & Record Check
Atlético Madrid is going through an unusually difficult phase early in the season. After three league games, they have just two points to their name, which has seen the Rojiblancos slip to 17th place in the table. The opening defeat against Espanyol (1-2) and the subsequent draws against Elche (1-1) and Alavés (1-1) reflect the problems facing Simeone’s team. Paradoxically, the team regularly finds the back of the net, but at the same time concedes goals in almost every game. This vulnerability in defense is uncharacteristic of a Simeone team and points to difficulties in integrating the numerous new signings. Personnel problems are further exacerbating the situation. While José María Giménez has been out with a muscle injury since June, Thiago Almada has now also been struck down, returning injured from the Argentine national team after a promising start. The midfielder’s expected one-month absence comes at an inopportune time, as he was one of the most consistent players in the first three games. Also noteworthy is the case of Giuliano Simeone’s goal against Alavés: the CTA subsequently admitted that the goal should have been disallowed due to an offside position. Such scenes illustrate that Atlético is currently lacking the luck that often characterizes successful teams.
Diego Simeone is expected to field his team in the usual 4-4-2 formation, even though he is missing important options due to injuries. The absence of José María Giménez is forcing the coach to improvise in central defense, where Le Normand and Lenglet are likely to form the center. The injury to Thiago Almada, who suffered a torn muscle fiber during the international break and will be out for several weeks, is particularly bitter. Álex Baena is also unavailable after his appendectomy. These absences could help Nico González to his first start after the Argentine was signed on the last day of the transfer window. In attack, the tried-and-tested duo of Sørloth and Julián Alvarez are expected to start, while Oblak will be in goal as usual. However, the final line-up remains uncertain until shortly before kick-off, as Simeone is still waiting for his international players to return.
Villarreal Form & Record Check
Villarreal are in impressive form ahead of their match at Atlético Madrid. Third place in the table with seven points from three games reflects an almost perfect start to the season. Particularly noteworthy is their run of three unbeaten games, in which they have scored in every match. The 5-0 win against Girona was a real statement of intent, with Buchanan shining with a hat trick. The recent 1-1 draw at Celta Vigo was by no means disappointing, with Pépé giving the Yellow Submarine an early lead before Borja Iglesias equalized in the 90th minute. Under Marcelino, the team is showing remarkable consistency in attack. They have scored at least once in each of their last four games, while usually leading at halftime. This early dominance could be an important piece of the puzzle for the tasks ahead. With only one point behind Athletic Club and level on points with Barcelona, the starting position is promising. However, injury worries cloud the picture: Gerard Moreno and Ayoze Pérez are still out, while Logan Costa is sidelined for the long term. Nevertheless, the team seems to be compensating well for these absences.
Marcelino is likely to field Villarreal in their usual 4-4-2 formation, even if some important absences are making planning difficult. Gerard Moreno and Ayoze Pérez are both out with injuries, leaving the coach with fewer options in attack. Logan Costa is still unavailable after tearing his cruciate ligament. Luiz Júnior, who last played in the 1-1 draw with Celta, is expected to start in goal. The back line could consist of Foyth, Rafa Marín, Mouriño, and Sergi Cardona. Buchanan, Comesaña, Pape Gueye, and Moleiro are likely to feature in midfield, while the duo of Pépé and Mikautadze will be tasked with creating chances up front. This lineup is, of course, only a prediction, as Marcelino could make changes depending on his tactical approach. Partey and Dani Parejo are available as experienced alternatives in midfield.
H2H Atlético – Villarreal Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record between Atlético and Villarreal shows a balanced picture with a slight advantage for the Madrid side. Atlético have won twice in the last five encounters, while the Yellow Submarine have failed to secure a single victory. Three games ended in a draw. Villarreal are unbeaten against Atlético in their last five meetings, which is explained by recent developments: the last two encounters in January 2025 and August 2024 ended 1-1 and 2-2 respectively. Both teams have scored in all five encounters, which speaks for the offensive quality on both sides. Particularly striking is the accuracy of both teams in the first half. In four of the last five games, both sides scored before the break. The games between these teams are usually high-scoring. Four of the last five matches have produced at least three goals. This suggests that neither coach has yet found the right tactical approach against their respective opponents. Defensive stability seems to be secondary in this matchup.
While the bookmakers rate Atlético as clear favorites at 1.9, the form curve tells a different story. The tip “Both teams to score: Yes” at 1.67 is based on Atlético’s three goals conceded in a row despite Oblak in goal and Villarreal’s perfect scoring record of four out of four games. Without the injured Giménez, Simeone’s defense is missing a cornerstone, while Marcelino has Buchanan, a speedy dribbler who finds space. The slightly more daring tip of “Over 3.5 goals” at 2.85 takes into account that Villarreal’s games so far have been high-scoring, with three of them seeing two goals by halftime. Atlético’s shaky defense without Giménez is likely to have problems against Pépé and Mikautadze, especially since the Rojiblancos themselves score regularly through Julián Álvarez. The outsider tip on Villarreal at 4.33 may seem risky, but the visitors are unbeaten, have scored first in every game and are facing an unsettled Atlético side that may also be without the creative Almada. The bookmakers may be underestimating Marcelino’s well-drilled team, which has already proven that it can hold its own away from home.
