Atlético Madrid welcomes a weakened FC Sevilla on Saturday afternoon, with the form of the two teams couldn’t be more different. The Rojiblancos sit in fourth place with 19 points, just one point behind Villarreal, while Sevilla are six points behind in eleventh place. After losing their opening game, Atlético have stabilized and are now unbeaten in the league, with their home form particularly impressive: four league wins in a row at the Metropolitano with a total of eleven goals scored. Diego Simeone’s team recently demonstrated their class in the second half of their 2-0 away win against Betis, although their poor performance in the Champions League following their 4-0 defeat at Arsenal has not affected their dominance at home.
Sevilla, on the other hand, are going through a difficult phase with two consecutive league defeats, most recently a 2-1 loss in San Sebastián. The 4-1 cup win against Toledo brought some relief, not least thanks to Januzaj’s brace, but important players will be missing for the game in Madrid: Agoumé is suspended, Azpilicueta and Nianzou are injured, and Alexis Sánchez is expected to be out for five to seven weeks with a thigh injury. The most recent meeting between the two sides in April ended 2-1 to Atlético, and the Madrid side have won four of their last five encounters with Sevilla. While the last three meetings have been low-scoring affairs, Atlético’s current form in attack could see more goals this time around, which is why the betting markets clearly favor the hosts.
- Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
- Date and time: November 1, 2025, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 11)
Atlético are unbeaten in their last nine league games and have not conceded a goal in the first 45 minutes of their last five home games. Sevilla’s considerable personnel problems reinforce the hosts’ status as favorites: in addition to Alexis Sánchez being out for up to seven weeks, César Azpilicueta and Tanguy Nianzou are also missing in defense.
In attack, Julián Álvarez stands out with seven goals in eleven games, while Sevilla have scored in each of their last five games despite the defeats and gained confidence from Januzaj’s recent brace in the cup. Over 2.5 goals seems to offer interesting value, as 80% of both teams’ recent games have exceeded this mark and Sevilla have conceded at least one goal in just as many games. The “both teams to score” tip remains riskier due to Atlético’s strong home defense, but could be worthwhile at odds close to 2.00 if Sevilla continues its scoring streak. Over 2.5 goals is the primary recommendation, while a home win is the more conservative but less profitable alternative.
Atletico Form & Record Check
Atlético is currently experiencing fluctuations between national strength and international weakness. After a sobering 4-0 defeat at Arsenal in the Champions League, they followed up with a confident 2-0 away win at Betis, where Giuliano’s dream goal in the third minute and Baena’s powerful shot shortly before half-time decided the game. These moments embody the typical Cholismo: defensive stability paired with effectiveness in the decisive moments. With 19 points and fourth place, the team is keeping pace with the top spots, albeit some distance behind Real Madrid.
Defensively, Atlético has been particularly robust in the first halves, conceding no goals in the last five games. However, in four of those five games, goals were conceded after the break, revealing room for improvement in the second half. Offensively, the team remains dangerous: in 80% of games, more than 1.5 goals were scored, with Atlético itself scoring just as often. Julián Álvarez is developing into a consistent weapon with seven goals in eleven games plus two shots off the woodwork, and his long-range shots significantly increase the variability in the team’s offensive play. The tight table situation, with only one point behind Villarreal and one point ahead of fifth place, requires consistency. Johnny Cardoso’s injury limits Simeone’s tactical options in central midfield, which could become a problem in busy weeks.
Atlético are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, as they did in their recent 2-0 win in Seville. Oblak will be in goal, with Molina, Le Normand, Giménez, and Hancko expected to form the back four. Koke will start alongside Gallagher in defensive midfield, as Johnny Cardoso remains sidelined with an ankle injury.
In the attacking trio, Baena is expected to play a central role after his goal against Betis, flanked by González and Griezmann, while Álvarez will be the lone striker. The personnel situation in midfield remains interesting due to Cardoso’s injury and Gallagher’s lack of 90-minute appearances so far. The home game may offer more playing time for Gallagher, especially as Atlético have been dangerous in front of goal at home recently.
Sevilla Form & Record Check
Sevilla travels to Madrid with mixed feelings and in eleventh place, just one point behind Getafe on 13 points. Their form has been inconsistent, with three wins and two defeats from their last five league games. The surprising 4-1 win against Barcelona was followed by sobering setbacks: a 3-1 home defeat to Mallorca and a 2-1 loss at Real Sociedad. What is remarkable is their offensive consistency, as Sevilla scored in all five games but conceded goals in four of them, highlighting their defensive vulnerability.
In the cup against third-division Toledo, Matías Almeyda’s team looked stronger, with Adnan Januzaj ending his long goal drought with two goals and regaining his confidence. The personnel situation remains tense: Azpilicueta and Nianzou are still missing in defense, while Alexis Sánchez’s absence due to a torn muscle fiber in his right thigh will be particularly painful for several weeks. What is striking is the lack of gray area in recent results, as the last five games have been either wins or losses, with not a single draw. Whether this clear trend continues or is broken at the Metropolitano could be decisive for the outcome of the game.
Coach Matías Almeyda is expected to field a 4-2-3-1 formation. Nyland will be in goal, with Juanlu Sánchez, Cardoso, Marcão, and Suazo likely to form the back four. In central midfield, the two defensive midfielders Nemanja Gudelj and Ibrahim Sow will provide stability and build up play.
The attacking trio consists of Vargas on the wing, Peque Fernández as the number 10 and Januzaj on the other wing, with Isaac Romero as the lone striker. Vlachodimos, Salas, Adams and Bueno are among those available on the bench. The important absences of Azpilicueta and Nianzou in central defense, as well as Alexis Sánchez’s several-week break due to a thigh injury, significantly weaken the team’s defensive experience and offensive power.
Atletico – Sevilla Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record clearly favors Atlético Madrid, who have won four of their last five matches against Sevilla. It is particularly striking that many games are only decided in the second half, while the score is often still tied at halftime. The most recent match in April this year ended in a 2-1 away win for Atlético, while the home game in December ended 4-3 in favor of the Rojiblancos, the only one of the last five games with more than two goals.
Sevilla’s only win in this series dates back to February 2024, a narrow 1-0 home victory. Since then, Sevilla have been waiting for a win in this fixture, with Atlético winning the last three encounters. Overall, the games have mostly been tactical and defensively tight, with the goal average for the last five games at just over one goal per game, indicating disciplined, closely contested encounters.
