Madrid’s most famous derby returns to the Metropolitano, and rarely have the omens been so different. On Saturday at 4:15 p.m., a struggling Atlético Madrid welcomes the flawless Real team, with the hosts having their worst season record under Diego Simeone since 2011 with only one win in six games, while Xabi Alonso’s Royals are marching through the season with six wins in six league games.
The bookmakers see Real as slight favorites, despite the home advantage for the Rojiblancos. The last direct duel was six months ago, when Real Madrid prevailed in the Champions League round of 16 after a dramatic penalty shootout. Particularly bitter for the Colchoneros: Álvarez’s converted penalty was disallowed after an alleged double touch, a decision that was later hotly debated.
Atlético comes into the game with renewed momentum after an important 3-2 win over Rayo Vallecano, in which Álvarez underlined his quality with a hat trick. However, Giménez and Almada are still out with injuries. Real Madrid will be without Rüdiger, Alexander-Arnold, and Mendy, but can count on the scoring threat of Mbappé, who has already scored nine goals in seven competitive games.
- Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
- Date and time: 09/27/2025, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 7)
Atletico Form & Record Check
Atlético Madrid are currently in inconsistent form. After last night’s dramatic 3-2 win over Rayo Vallecano, you might think the Rojiblancos have finally turned a corner. Julián Álvarez saved his team with a flawless hat trick, impressively underlining his accuracy in front of goal.
Nevertheless, their recent record remains sobering. Simeone’s team has picked up just six points from its last five league games, which is the worst start to a season under the coach since 2009/10. The 1-1 draw at Mallorca revealed some typical weaknesses: Álvarez missed a penalty, Sørloth was shown a red card after a VAR review, and in the closing stages, the team let a seemingly certain victory slip away.
Interestingly, Atlético are currently scoring in every game, but at the same time have lost defensive stability. The 3-2 defeat at Liverpool in the Champions League underlined this trend. Despite a 2-0 lead, the team collapsed again, raising questions about their mental resilience. Simeone’s sending off after altercations with Liverpool fans also highlighted the tense atmosphere surrounding the club.
Giménez and Almada are currently unavailable due to injury. Llorente, on the other hand, remains an asset with his precise passing, while last night showed that Álvarez has the potential to revitalize the offense when he is in form.
Diego Simeone is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 5-3-2 formation in the expected line-up. The prediction sees Oblak in goal, while the defense could feature Molina, Le Normand, Hancko, Lenglet, and Javi Galán.
Pablo Barrios, Koke, and Conor Gallagher are expected to start in midfield, with the latter gaining confidence after his goal against Rayo Vallecano. The absence of José María Giménez due to a thigh injury could give Le Normand a central role in the three-man defense.
In attack, Griezmann and Julián Alvarez are likely to form the strike partnership. Álvarez rediscovered his form with his hat-trick against Rayo and will play a key role after a difficult start to the season. Álex Baena could get some playing time after his injury break if he is fit in time.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid comes into the derby at the Metropolitano on the back of an impeccable run of five wins from five games. The Blancos have scored in every game and shown impressive consistency, even if the defensive area continues to cause concern. With Rüdiger, Alexander-Arnold, and Mendy out, the team is missing important defensive players.
Xabi Alonso’s team has made significant tactical progress. The defense is playing almost ten meters higher than last season, resulting in a more aggressive pressing game. Against Marseille, the Madrid team won back 13 balls in the opponent’s half, a record for a first half in the Champions League.
Mbappé is in top form and has scored in six of seven games this season. His two goals in the recent 4-1 win over Levante underline his importance to the team’s attacking play. Vinicius, on the other hand, enjoyed an important comeback when he was allowed to play a full game for the first time and shone with a goal and an assist.
The rotation has worked perfectly so far, even though Bellingham is not yet fully integrated after his shoulder surgery. Mastantuono, at 18, is already establishing himself as an important option, while Arda Güler continues to perform consistently. The team has conceded only four goals in seven games, which is remarkable given the injury woes in defense.
Real Madrid are likely to line up in their usual 4-3-3 formation, even though coach Xabi Alonso has varied the lineup in every game so far. Jude Bellingham may not be ready to start despite his return from a shoulder injury. The Englishman has shortened his recovery by a month, but he is coming into the derby without the necessary rhythm.
The personnel situation is forcing some adjustments: with Rüdiger, Alexander-Arnold, and Mendy out, three important defensive players are unavailable. Raúl Asencio could make his derby debut, while Álvaro Carreras is likely to take over the left-back position after his strong performance against Levante. Tchouaméni seems set to start in midfield after being rested against Levante.
Vinicius is motivated ahead of the game at the Metropolitano, where he has scored just once in 17 derbies. After his gala performance in Valencia, where he scored and played the full 90 minutes, he may have found his best form. Franco Mastantuono, who scored his first goal against Levante, has earned Alonso’s trust.
H2H Atletico – Real Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five encounters between the two teams show a remarkable pattern of balance. In previous league encounters, the teams have drawn three times, with both the game in February 2025 (1-1) and the encounter in September 2024 (1-1) being high-scoring but evenly matched.
The only real winner was in the Champions League round of 16 in March 2025. After a 2-1 win in the first leg, Real Madrid also won the second leg at the Metropolitano, despite the score being 1-1 after extra time. In the penalty shootout, Los Blancos kept their nerve to win 4-2 and knock Atlético out of European competition.
The dramatic Champions League games were preceded by a remarkable series of three consecutive draws in La Liga. This consistency speaks to the tactical discipline of both teams when they face each other. Both teams score regularly, but they also almost always concede goals.
The statistics reveal a defensive nature to the duels. Only one of the last five games has seen more than two goals scored, which underlines the compact style of play of both coaches. Simeone and Alonso’s systems seem to neutralize each other perfectly, which explains the frequent draws.
Real Madrid travels to the Metropolitano with a perfect record of seven wins from seven games, while Atletico desperately needs points after a mixed start to the season. The betting markets see Los Blancos as slight favorites, but our analysis reveals some interesting value opportunities.
The first tip, “Both teams to score: Yes,” seems particularly well-founded: Mbappé has already scored nine goals in seven games, and Real Madrid has scored in every game this season, while Atletico has also scored in all six league games despite defensive problems. Julián Alvarez underlined his dangerousness with his hat trick against Rayo, and the last three derbies have always seen goals on both sides. The absence of Giménez significantly weakens Atletico’s central defense, while Real have conceded goals in four of their last five games without Rüdiger and Mendy. At odds of 1.62, this tip offers solid value.
The tip for a Real Madrid win is based on their impressive run under Xabi Alonso and the extra day of rest, but the betting markets at 2.25 already reflect this favoritism. Interestingly, the draw at 3.6 seems generously priced, as two of the last three Metropolitano derbies have ended in draws and Simeone’s team is still unbeaten at home. The emotional factor following last season’s controversial Champions League decision could provide additional motivation, while Real’s decimated defense looks vulnerable.
