Atlético Madrid is experiencing its weakest start to a season since 2009/10, before Diego Simeone took charge. In today’s city derby against Rayo Vallecano at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, both teams are stuck lower in the table than they would have expected at the start of the season. The Rojiblancos are in 12th place with only six points, while Rayo are in 14th place with five points.
The recent 1-1 draw at Mallorca was symptomatic of Atlético’s current problems: Julián Alvarez missed a penalty, Alexander Sørloth was sent off after a VAR decision. However, the head-to-head record speaks for itself in favor of the home side. Rayo have not won a single game in the last five encounters, with the last meeting ending in a clear 3-0 victory. The Vallecanos even had to cope with the legendary 7-0 defeat in August 2023 during this series.
Interestingly, the bookmakers see Atlético as the clear favorites, even though both teams are currently struggling. Iñigo Pérez’s Rayo are coming off a 1-1 draw with Celta Vigo, in which Jorge de Frutos scored the equalizer. Abdul Mumin, an important center back, is out long term, while Atlético will be without Giménez, Baena, and Almada.
- Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
- Date and time: 09/24/2025, 9:30 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 6)
Atletico form & record check
Atlético Madrid are in 12th place in the table after five matchdays with only six points, level on points with Osasuna below them. It is their lowest points tally after five games since 2009.
Their recent performances illustrate the problem: in the 1-1 draw in Mallorca, Álvarez missed a penalty in the 14th minute before Sørloth was sent off for a hard foul. Despite Gallagher’s opening goal in the 79th minute, they conceded a late equalizer from Muriqi. Interestingly, Atlético scores regularly but is unable to control games.
The same pattern was evident in the Champions League: against Liverpool, Marcos Llorente led a spectacular comeback with two goals after falling behind 0-2, but Van Dijk’s header in stoppage time ruined everything. This defeat was particularly bitter because it underlined the team’s fighting spirit, but at the same time highlighted their lack of stability at crucial moments.
Of their last five competitive games, four ended in draws, with only the 2-0 home win against Villarreal standing out positively. The gap to league leaders Real Madrid is already nine points, which underlines the urgency of a turnaround. One might think that the absences of Giménez, Baena, and Almada make rotation difficult, but the underlying problems run deeper.
Simeone is likely to stick with his usual 4-4-2 formation, as the personnel problems have not diminished compared to recent weeks. With Giménez (thigh injury), Baena (appendicitis), and Thiago Almada (muscle injury) still out, Atlético continues to be without three key regulars, whose return remains uncertain.
In central defense, Le Normand and Lenglet could be given the nod, while Llorente will occupy the right side and Hancko the left. In central midfield, the tried-and-tested combination of Koke and Barrios is likely to feature, flanked by Giuliano Simeone and Nico González on the wings.
Up front, Griezmann is likely to partner Álvarez again. Interestingly, Sørloth could initially be only a bench option after his red card in Mallorca, even though his suspension only applies to La Liga. This lineup remains a prediction, of course, with Simeone making the final decision shortly before kickoff.
Rayo Form & Record Check
Rayo Vallecano has been in mixed form this season. With five points from five league games, the team is in 14th place in the table and struggling with early difficulties. Recent performances reveal an interesting pattern: while Iñigo Pérez’s team is quite stable defensively, it often lacks punch up front.
Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Celta Vigo was symptomatic of Rayo’s current problems. Although the team responded well after falling behind to Borja Iglesias’ goal and deservedly equalized through Jorge de Frutos, they once again gave the impression of a team that is not making the most of its chances. Goalkeeper Augusto Batalla kept the team in the game with several strong saves.
The statistics from the last five games speak for themselves: Rayo is still waiting for its first first-half lead of the season and has not scored in any first half. This slow start is costing valuable points. Interestingly, the game usually develops after the break, as was also seen against Celta.
The 2-0 defeat in Pamplona against Osasuna a week ago was a particular setback. The team looked uninspired and hardly created any chances in front of goal. Every point is precious in the battle for position in the table: only one point separates Rayo from Osasuna in 13th place, while Celta lurks behind them on the same number of points.
In terms of personnel, Pérez will continue to be without Abdul Mumin, who has suffered a cruciate ligament injury. However, the defense around Pathé Ciss, who recently helped out as a center back, is basically solid. Up front, the coach rotates between Alemão and Camello, without either of them really convincing.
Coach Iñigo Pérez is likely to revert to his tried-and-tested 4-4-2 system after the 1-1 draw with Celta Vigo. Batalla is expected to start in goal after impressing with some strong saves recently. In defense, Ciss could once again line up as a center back alongside Lejeune, as Mumin remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury.
In midfield, we expect De Frutos and Isi Palazón to return to the starting lineup after both recently proved their scoring prowess. Pedro Díaz and Valentín should stabilize the central midfield. Up front, Pérez could once again rely on Camello and Álvaro García, although Alemão’s inclusion is also conceivable after his good performance as a substitute against Celta.
H2H Atletico – Rayo Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record between Atlético Madrid and Rayo Vallecano clearly favors the Colchoneros. In the last five meetings since 2023, Atlético has won four times, with only a 1-1 draw in September 2024.
Particularly noteworthy is Atlético’s current streak of three consecutive wins against Rayo. The foundation was laid with a 7-0 rout in Vallecas in August 2023, followed by a 2-1 win in January 2024 and most recently a clear 3-0 victory in April 2025.
Interestingly, Atlético has dominated in the first half. In four of the five matches, the Rojiblancos scored before the break, while Rayo often had no chances during this period. This points to the early tactical superiority of Simeone’s team.
The goal statistics underline Atlético’s dominance: they scored at least one goal in all five games, while Rayo conceded goals throughout. Only last September’s draw briefly broke this trend, but without breaking the fundamental superiority.
The favorite for under 2.5 goals is based on clear figures: Atlético has shown little offensive power in four of its five league games so far, while Rayo has also played defensively in 80% of its games. The absences of Álex Baena and Thiago Almada rob Simeone’s team of important creativity in midfield, which could explain the lack of goals.
For the “both teams to score” tip, Atlético’s 100% scoring rate and the fact that both teams have conceded goals in four of five games suggest activity at both ends. Álvarez will be particularly motivated after his missed penalty against Mallorca, and Rayo’s counterattacks via Isi Palazón remain a weapon. The draw tip at 4.5 offers interesting value against the market assessment, especially as Atlético have already collected three draws in their last five league games and Rayo traditionally annoy the big clubs. These odds do not reflect the Colchoneros’ current poor form.
