Atlético Madrid vs. Real Oviedo, this La Liga clash comes with a lot of context, from form curves to personnel issues. In this preview, we combine the already extensive match report into a clear overall story, with a short summary, analysis including predicted lineups, assessments of goal and betting markets, and a brief look at the match.
- Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
- Date and time: November 29, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 14)
Our first recommendation is Over 2.5 goals, as Atlético has exceeded this mark in 80% of its last five games, often scoring after the break and bringing plenty of offensive quality with Álvarez, who has scored 9 Champions League goals in 13 appearances, and assist provider Griezmann, as shown by narrow victories such as the 2-1 win against Inter or the 1-0 win in Getafe. Secondly, “Both teams to score: No” seems plausible despite Atlético’s tendency to score a lot of goals, because Oviedo is weak in attack, has failed to score in 60% of its recent games as the bottom team in the table, and even with Cazorla failed to score in the 0-0 draw against Rayo, while Atlético’s stable defense around Giménez has already kept clean sheets against strong opponents and now looks good again against a team that has not won in five games. Thirdly, a half-time lead for Atlético is a rather conservative option, as the Rojiblancos remained unbeaten in the first 45 minutes throughout their winning streak, while Oviedo scored a maximum of 1.5 goals in the first halves of their last five games. the absences of Llorente and Le Normand may change the defense, but the offense is intact and could settle the game early.
Atletico Form & Record Check
Atlético is currently enjoying its best spell of the season, with five wins in a row and now twelve league games without defeat. In La Liga, the Rojiblancos are on 28 points and in fourth place, just one point behind Villarreal and seven points ahead of the relegation play-off spot, currently occupied by Real Betis. It is striking that Atlético has decided many games in the second half, with four of their last five wins coming after the break and the team scoring in the second half in all of these games, sometimes very late, such as in the 93rd minute against Inter. The team is stable in attack, scoring in all five of its most recent games and usually scoring more than 2.5 goals, with Julián Álvarez becoming a key figure with his early goal against Inter and strong overall statistics in the Champions League, and Griezmann continuing to provide important assists at crucial moments. At the same time, matches such as the one in Getafe show that Atlético still does not always find the right solutions in organized build-up play against deep-lying, defensively very organized opponents with a back five, and many goals tend to come from set pieces or opponent errors. Robin Le Normand is out long term with knee problems and Marcos Llorente with a thigh injury, with their return dates uncertain, making the dependence on experienced players such as Koke, who recently played his 700th game, even more apparent and limiting the rotation options. In the Champions League, Atlético are within striking distance of the round of 16 with 9 points, and the home win against Inter was crucial in this regard, underlining the Metropolitano’s home strength with 11 wins from 12 home games in the Champions League over the last two years. Overall, the run is impressive and testifies to great fighting spirit and efficiency in the late stages, but the question remains whether the offense can develop enough creative punch against strong, compact opponents in the long term and whether the injury problems in key areas will affect stability in the longer term.
Simeone is expected to stick with his usual 4-4-2 formation. Due to the absences of Robin Le Normand with a knee injury and Marcos Llorente with a thigh injury, adjustments are necessary in central defense, with Hancko likely to start alongside Giménez, while Molina and Ruggeri take over the wide positions. Barrios, Cardoso, Gallagher, and Baena are expected to start in midfield, with Griezmann and Julián Álvarez leading the attack. Jan Oblak could return in goal after his recent injury layoff, with the final decision between him and Musso expected to be made shortly.
Oviedo Form & Record Check
Real Oviedo are in deep crisis and are bottom of the table with only nine points from 13 games, level on points with Levante, having failed to win any of their last five competitive games, with three draws and two defeats, and their attack remaining consistently toothless. The 0-0 draw against Rayo Vallecano clearly highlighted the problems. Santi Cazorla returned after almost two months out with injury and dominated the game for around an hour, but narrowly missed a potential historic goal with a free kick. After he was substituted, the team noticeably lost structure and, to make matters worse, Ilyas Chaira was sent off with a red card in the 53rd minute. Nevertheless, Oviedo initially held their own despite being a man down, with goalkeeper Aarón Escandell saving a penalty from Isi Palazón and Rayo also hitting the crossbar, before the game was played ten against ten for periods after Pathe Ciss was sent off, with no goals scored. Statistically, the first half in particular highlights the team’s offensive weakness. In the last five games, no more than 1.5 goals were scored in the first half. Previously, there had been a goalless draw against Osasuna, a lucky 3-3 draw in Girona, and a narrow 0-1 defeat in Bilbao. The situation is further exacerbated by personnel issues, with Javi López out for several weeks with a torn muscle fiber, Chaira suspended, and Álvaro Lemos out until 2026 with a torn cruciate ligament, while Cazorla is back but his consistency over 90 minutes remains questionable. Coach Luis Carrión is under enormous pressure. Since taking over at the end of October, Oviedo is still waiting for its first win. The hoped-for boost after the change of coach has failed to materialize, and confidence is dwindling further because the club has reported a financial deficit of around €5.5 million, which makes the looming relegation battle even more stressful.
Carrión is likely to stick with his usual 4-2-3-1 system, even though two important players are missing: Javi López, who is out with muscle problems, and Chaira, who is suspended. The following adjustments are therefore likely in the affected positions: Rahim will move to left-back and Hassan could move into attacking midfield due to Chaira’s suspension, while Cazorla, who was able to play for around an hour after his injury, is expected to start alongside Brekalo and Hassan behind the striker. The presumed 4-2-3-1 formation with the aforementioned changes looks like this: a goalkeeper in goal, a right-back in defense, center-backs 1 and 2, Rahim on the left, a double six in defensive midfield, Brekalo on the right in attacking midfield, Hassan in the center or on the wing, and Cazorla on the left or in the center, with Rondón up front as the striker. Tactically, the absence of Javi López weakens the usual balance on the left side of defense, with Rahim having to stabilize defensively, while Chaira’s suspension gives Hassan more offensive playing time and Cazorla, as an experienced playmaker in the attacking midfield trio, is expected to bring additional creativity to better utilize Rondón as a target player.
Atletico – Oviedo Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record between Atlético Madrid and Real Oviedo is close, with the last meeting taking place in 2023 in the round of 16 of the Copa del Rey, when Atlético won 2-0 away without conceding a goal. However, as this was a cup match almost three years ago and Oviedo were playing in the Segunda División at the time, it is difficult to draw any conclusions from it for the upcoming La Liga clash. The omens for tomorrow’s game are therefore almost open, as there is hardly any relevant direct history that can be applied one-to-one to the current situation, especially since Oviedo are now back in La Liga.
