A Champions League participant in poor form against an opponent that has just beaten Roma – that’s exactly what the match between Atalanta Bergamo and Cagliari on Saturday evening at the New Balance Arena on the 15th matchday of Serie A has to offer. Atalanta are 12th in the table with 16 points, just two points ahead of 13th-placed Cagliari, who have 14 points and a goal difference of minus five, just ahead of Genoa. At the same time, however, they are coming off a 2-1 comeback win against Chelsea on Tuesday, with Scamacca and De Ketelaere turning the game around. The last league match in Bergamo ended 0-0, underscoring how close and mostly low-scoring this fixture has been in recent seasons. Cagliari travels to Bergamo on the back of a 1-0 home win against Roma, decided by Gaetano and buoyed by defensive stability after a mixed league form, a result that has given Fabio Pisacane’s team some breathing room from the relegation zone. With Mina still out, he is likely to once again rely on Luperto, Zappa, and Rodriguez in defense, while Borrelli and Esposito are expected to lead the attack, supported by investments from the United States and traditionally strong away support.
- Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo
- Date and time: 13.12.2025, 20:45
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 15)
Atalanta’s offense, which recently fought back against Chelsea after falling behind with goals from Scamacca and De Ketelaere, and a Cagliari side that beat Roma but will be without Mina but will field Esposito and Borrelli, speak in favor of this. Under these circumstances, over 2.5 goals, early goals, and the bet “both teams to score: yes” seem well-founded.
Atalanta form & record check
Atalanta is presenting itself with an unusually split personality at this stage of the season. In Serie A, they are in 12th place with 16 points, just two behind Udinese and at the same time only two ahead of Cagliari, so the gap between a comfortable mid-table position and a slide into trouble is small. In the league, they have only won one of their last five games, which inevitably dampens the mood. In all competitions, however, the picture is much brighter, with four wins in their last five games underlining their ability to bounce back. The 3-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt and the 4-0 win against Genoa in the Coppa Italia showed control in both phases of the game, while the 2-0 home win against Fiorentina confirmed this trend. However, the 3-1 defeat in Verona served as a reminder that the defensive balance in Serie A remains fragile. The comeback against Chelsea in the Champions League was particularly significant. After conceding an early goal, Palladino’s team found their way into the game, equalized with a header from Scamacca, and decided the match late on with a long-range shot from De Ketelaere, which could reflect a broader trend. Atalanta have scored in each of their last five games and have won the second half in most cases. Statistically, their games are open, with all of their last five matches producing more than 1.5 goals and most exceeding 2.5, and there have been no draws in this series. This suggests an aggressive approach, but also risk-taking. Injuries to Bellanova, Bakker, and Sulemana limit their depth, so De Ketelaere’s creativity and support from Lookman and Scamacca will be particularly important.
Atalanta are likely to stick with their tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 formation in our predicted line-up, with Carnesecchi in goal behind a back three of Kossounou, Djimsiti, and Kolasinac. Zappacosta and Zalewski should provide width on the wings, while De Roon and Éderson stabilize the center. De Ketelaere and Lookman will act as attacking support behind Scamacca, who is once again expected to be the central target in the penalty area. This lineup reflects recent performances, but remains a predicted starting XI. With Bellanova and Bakker out long term and Sulemana also unavailable, we see Zappacosta and Zalewski on the flanks, both of whom are expected to push high up the pitch. Up front, De Ketelaere and Scamacca are in good form after scoring crucial goals against Chelsea in Europe.
Cagliari Form & Record Check
Cagliari travels to Bergamo on the back of a mixed but by no means disastrous run of form in Serie A. Their most recent league games have seen them lose 2-1 at Juventus, draw 3-3 at home to Genoa in a goal-fest, and draw 0-0 away at Como, results that leave them 13th in the table with 14 points, two behind Atalanta, while Genoa are just behind them on the same number of points. A possible turning point came in the 1-0 win over Roma, sealed by Gaetano’s late goal from Esposito’s assist after Celik was shown a red card, a result that gave Cagliari some breathing space from the relegation zone. Just a few days earlier, they had drawn 1-1 with Napoli in the Coppa Italia before being eliminated on penalties after taking the tie to a shootout. Nevertheless, they continue to have a lot of ground to make up in games. In their last five matches, they have never led at halftime, but they are difficult to break down after the break and have not actually lost a second half. Overall, they have scored in 80% of these games before the final whistle, while most second halves have been low-scoring, often with no more than one goal. Cagliari now seem more solid in terms of personnel and tactics. Mina is still out, and Zé Pedro, Felici, and Belotti are also unavailable, which is why Pisacane is sticking with an unchanged back three of Luperto, Zappa, and Rodriguez, with Palestra and Obert on the wings. In midfield, Adopo and Prati are competing for the spot ahead of Deiola and Folorunsho, while Borrelli and Esposito lead the attack with three goals each.
Cagliari are expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation again, very similar to the one used in the win against Roma, with Caprile in goal behind the well-established trio of Zappa, Luperto, and Rodriguez. Palestra and Obert should provide width as aggressive fullbacks, while in the middle, Folorunsho, Deiola, and the slightly favored Adopo could form a physical unit behind the striking duo of Esposito and Borrelli, who are likely to be trusted once again. This is still a predicted lineup that has not yet been officially confirmed. Mina is once again unavailable and is aiming for a return around December 21, while Zé Pedro, Felici, and Belotti are all out with serious knee problems. Prati is the main alternative to Adopo in midfield, with Gaetano, Rog, Luvumbo, and Pavoletti also available to offer additional solutions from the bench.
Atalanta – Cagliari Head-to-head & statistics
In the last five Serie A encounters, the head-to-head record between the two teams is completely even. Each side has celebrated two wins, plus there has been one draw, and in the overall balance of this section, Atalanta is just ahead of Cagliari with five wins to four. Home advantage has not been a decisive factor, with Atalanta recording one win, one draw, and one defeat at home, while away at Cagliari they have one win and one defeat. In February 2025, the teams neutralized each other in Bergamo with a 0-0 draw, after Atalanta had narrowly won 1-0 away in December 2024. Earlier in 2024, Cagliari had won 2-1 at home, Atalanta responded with a 2-0 win in Bergamo in 2023, while Cagliari caused an upset with a 2-1 win away at Atalanta in 2022. Goals have been few and far between, with all five encounters ending with under 3.5 goals and three of them just above the 1.5 mark. Atalanta have scored in four of the five games and only failed to score in the most recent draw, while Cagliari have scored in only two games but netted twice in each of those two wins. The half-time patterns confirm the picture of cautious games, with four of the five first halves ending evenly and Cagliari not leading at the break in any of these matches. For both teams, four of the five first and second halves ended with fewer than 1.5 goals, meaning that the games were decided by individual moments rather than prolonged periods of pressure. Looking ahead, Palladino could rely on Scamacca, Lookman, and De Ketelaere in attack to shift these narrow margins in Atalanta’s favor, as the head-to-head comparison rarely really opens up. Pisacane faces a different task: he must encourage Esposito and Luvumbo to be more incisive without losing the defensive discipline that has already enabled two wins in this five-game sample.
