Atalanta Bergamo has just suffered its first home defeat under Raffaele Palladino against Inter, and now the club welcomes AS Roma, currently fourth in the table, to the New Balance Arena on Saturday evening for a duel that brings together the contrasting stories of this Serie A season. The match is part of the 18th round of Serie A. Atalanta goes into the game in tenth place with 22 points, wedged between Sassuolo and Udinese, who have the same number of points, while AS Roma travels from fourth place with 33 points, nestled between Napoli and Juventus. Recent history favors Atalanta in this matchup, as they are unbeaten in their last five league games against AS Roma, with four wins and one draw, and have also won the last three games in Bergamo, including a 2-1 home win last May in round 36. The pattern has mostly been open, with goals on both sides, yet AS Roma often leave the New Balance Arena frustrated. Form and news add further nuances, with Atalanta’s 2025 campaign, with 55 points and the confusing attempt to switch from Gasperini to Juric, falling short of expectations, Palladino now clearly opting for a 3-4-2-1 with Scamacca, De Ketelaere, and a fit again Zappacosta, although Lookman, Kossounou, Bellanova, and Bakker are missing. AS Roma, leaders in 2025 with 82 points and thus the most consistent team, are coming off a 3-1 win in Genoa thanks to Soulé and Koné, but Ndicka, El Aynaoui, Pellegrini, and Bove are unavailable. The game therefore has clear significance, with Atalanta needing a response after losing their unbeaten home run under Palladino against Inter, although the team still boasts three wins from their last five league games, while AS Roma are aiming to defend their 4th place in the table, despite three league defeats in the same period.
- Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo
- Date and time: January 3, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 18)
Based on Atalanta Bergamo’s habit of scoring goals while conceding chances and AS Roma’s status as the most consistent team in Serie A 2025, our tips are clearly Both Teams to Score: Yes and Over 1.5 Goals in the Second Half, when Palladino’s team usually picks up the pace. The double chance on AS Roma or a draw contradicts a market that prices Atalanta as the clear favorite at around 2.2 and clearly underestimates Gasperini’s compact, resilient AS Roma.
Atalanta Form & Record Check
Atalanta enters this round in a state of controlled turbulence. In Serie A, the Bergamaschi are in tenth place with 22 points and a narrow positive goal difference, wedged between Sassuolo and Udinese, who have the same haul. Their last five games in all competitions have yielded three wins and two defeats, a run that shows both the team’s potential and its vulnerability. The 1-0 home defeat to Inter, the first under Palladino in Bergamo, came after a cautious game that was ruined by a mistake by Djimsiti in the build-up play. Before that, there were hard-fought league wins against Genoa (1-0) and Cagliari (2-1), as well as a high-class 2-1 victory over Chelsea in the Champions League, offset by a heavy 3-1 defeat in Verona. Statistically, a clear pattern emerges: Atalanta have not drawn any of their last five games, scoring in four of them and conceding four goals. In about four of those games, they scored after the break, and the first half remained under 1.5 goals in each case, so they often start tightly and later become more open and vulnerable. Palladino seems to have stabilized the structure with a 3-4-2-1, built around De Roon and Ederson in midfield and De Ketelaere behind Scamacca, with Samardžić a strong candidate for the other creative position. With Zappacosta back, the width improves, but the absences of Lookman, Kossounou, Bellanova, and Bakker limit rotation, possibly explaining fatigue and late mistakes such as Djimsiti’s against Inter.
Interestingly, Atalanta are expected to stick with the 3-4-2-1 used against Inter, so our predicted starting XI consists of Carnesecchi in goal with Hien, Djimsiti, and Kolasinac in front of him. Zappacosta, now fully recovered, should start on the right, with Zalewski expected on the left, while De Roon and Ederson will anchor the midfield. De Ketelaere and Samardžić are expected to support Scamacca. There is still some uncertainty, as Scalvini could be preferred to Djimsiti in the back three, and Sulemana or Pašalić could compete with Samardžić for a place behind Scamacca. Lookman and Kossounou are on international duty, while Bellanova and Bakker are out injured, which takes away some depth on the wings and in defense, so this should be considered a predicted lineup, not an official one.
AS Roma Form & Record Check
AS Roma travel to Bergamo in solid but unspectacular form. Three wins and two defeats in their last five games in all competitions show a team that is competitive but still volatile. In Serie A, the Romans are in fourth place with 33 points, just one point behind Napoli and one ahead of Juventus, so even a slight dip in form could change their position. The recent 3-1 win over Genoa was encouraging, with AS Roma ruthless in the first half through Soulé, Koné, and Ferguson, and then managing the game without ever completely closing it out. The narrow defeat at Juventus highlighted ongoing defensive lapses away from home, while the controlled win against Como and the Europa League victory at Celtic contrasted sharply with the tired defeat in Cagliari that still haunts this run. Statistically, AS Roma’s recent games have been more decisive than cautious, with no draws in their last five games and goals in four of those games, but the second halves tend to be tight with few goals. Gasperini now has to balance this high-risk profile, as key players such as El Aynaoui, Bove, Pellegrini, and Ndicka are missing, which increases the responsibility on Cristante, Koné, and the creative line with Soulé and Dybala.
AS Roma are expected to stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation in our predicted line-up, with Svilar in goal behind a back three of Mancini, Ziolkowski, and Hermoso. Çelik and Angeliño should provide width as wingbacks, while Cristante and Koné operate in the middle. In front of them, Soulé and Dybala will likely support lone striker Ferguson between the lines. This system is only a projection; Gasperini could still make last-minute personnel changes, especially with Ndicka and El Aynaoui away on international duty and Bove still sidelined with heart problems. With Pellegrini still struggling with a thigh injury, the creative responsibility in our expected starting eleven lies even more with Dybala and Soulé, with Ferguson acting as the central reference point.
Atalanta – AS Roma Head-to-head & Statistics
In the last five Serie A meetings between Atalanta Bergamo and AS Roma from 2023 to 2025, Atalanta leads the series with four wins and one draw. The overall record of 10:4 in Atalanta’s favor shows a sustained superiority rather than a one-off anomaly, with AS Roma failing to win any of these games and thus lacking a clear psychological advantage. Atalanta has been relentless at home during this period, winning all three games in Bergamo, including the most recent encounter in May 2025, which ended 2:1. Even in Rome, Atalanta picked up four points from two away games, a 2-0 win in 2024 and a 1-1 draw, meaning AS Roma have not won a single home game in this series. In terms of goals, at least two were scored in each of the five games, and in four of them the total remained below four, so the games were open but rarely chaotic. Atalanta scored in all five encounters and found the net before the break in the last three, while AS Roma scored in four of the five games but always conceded goals. Interestingly, Atalanta often controlled the early stages, as they have never lost in terms of the half-time score and AS Roma have never led at the break. This suggests that Atalanta usually assert themselves from the start, which could strengthen their momentum again, even if AS Roma appear to be at least competitive in terms of overall goals scored.
