Important Facts
- Atalanta is seventh (45 points) and two points behind Juventus; Udinese is tenth (35) and sits between two stools, just one point ahead of Lazio.
- The Bergamaschi’s form fluctuates between statement victories (2-1 against Napoli, 4-1 against Dortmund) and setbacks; they showed late morale in the 2-2 draw at Lazio.
- Atalanta look vulnerable defensively, having conceded in five consecutive games; at the same time, they have remained unbeaten after the break during this phase.
- Udinese travel on the back of a 3-0 win over Fiorentina, where Kabasele, Davis and Buksa scored and Zaniolo provided the assists, after three narrow defeats.
- Injuries are affecting the lineups: Udinese are missing Solet and Zanoli (Atta is doubtful) in their back three, while Atalanta are without De Ketelaere and Raspadori, and Éderson is being rested.
- Historically, there have been fewer than 3.5 goals in five league matches (four times fewer than 1.5 at halftime); nevertheless, BTTS is attractive at just under even odds due to Atalanta’s five consecutive goals conceded.
Atalanta Bergamo still has Udinese’s 1-0 league win in November 2025 in the back of its mind, and that’s exactly what gives this evening an extra edge. On Saturday, the two teams meet again at the New Balance Arena on matchday 28 of Serie A. Palladino’s team goes into the game in seventh place with 45 points, just two points behind Juventus. Udinese are tenth with 35 points, just one point above Lazio. The decisive factors will be why a home win still seems the most likely outcome, why both teams will score (which remains plausible given recent defensive trends), and why Atalanta could even win by a wider margin if Udinese’s makeshift defense cracks under pressure.
- Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo
- Date and time: March 7, 2026, 6:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 28)
Atalanta’s appeal as a win bet stems from their ability to roll over opponents at home, underpinned by their 4-1 Champions League win against Borussia Dortmund. The market is also clearly leaning in this direction, which is logical, even if the busy schedule naturally poses a risk. The slightly bolder Atalanta handicap idea is based on the fact that Udinese will be without Solet and Zanoli, and that Runjaić’s recent 3-5-2 formation also offers space, especially for Atalanta’s play down the wings.
Atalanta form & record check
Atalanta’s recent results in various competitions have been impressive, but not always clean. In the Coppa Italia semi-final, they drew 2-2 with Lazio, a game in which they showed character and responded late on. Before that, however, they suffered a 2-1 defeat in the league at Sassuolo, which felt avoidable. In between, the 2-1 league win against Napoli carried real weight, and the 4-1 home win against Dortmund showed what is possible when the tempo is right. Defensively, however, this openness comes at a price, with Atalanta conceding in five consecutive games, even on nights when they seem to have everything under control. Interestingly, they have not conceded a defeat in this phase after the break, which speaks for their game control and depth in the squad. The absences of Éderson, De Ketelaere, and the likely absence of Raspadori limit Palladino’s options, which could mean that the creative burden will fall more heavily on Pašalić and Samardžić, while Scamacca or Krstović will be expected to convert the pressure into goals.
Palladino is likely to stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Carnesecchi behind a back three of Scalvini, Hien, and Kolasinac. Zappacosta and Zalewski will provide width as wingbacks, while de Roon and Pašalić will anchor the midfield. In the half-spaces, Samardžić and Sulemana are likely to be the most creative forces behind Scamacca. We can expect aggressive counter-pressing and quick vertical balls to Scamacca as soon as the ball is won. That remains a prediction, however, as the biggest question mark is the availability of players in the front line and midfield. Éderson is listed as rested, De Ketelaere is out with a meniscus injury and Raspadori is in the stands with a muscle strain, so Samardžić and Sulemana may have to shoulder a lot of work between the lines. From the bench, Musah or Bellanova could realign the right side, while Krstović would be the direct replacement up front.
Udinese Calcio Form & Record Check
Udinese’s league form has been a rollercoaster ride recently, and their position in the table reflects that quite clearly. They lost 1-0 away to Bologna, then 2-1 at home to Sassuolo, and also went down 2-1 in Lecce, games that showed how close everything often is for them. Nevertheless, they are traveling with momentum after beating Fiorentina 3-0, finally a performance that matches the athletic profile Runjaić wants to see, aggressive on second balls and with clarity in both penalty areas. The victory against Fiorentina also gave clues as to the likely plan: Okoye behind a back three, the wingbacks pushing forward, and Zaniolo central when it came to feeding runs and taking set pieces, including the assist for Kabasele’s opening goal. The only question is how much of that they will take with them to Bergamo, as Solet and Zanoli are missing and Atta’s status is unclear. This could noticeably weaken their defense and their ability to dribble from deep. If Davis and Buksa don’t hold up the ball up front early on, Udinese could be pinned back for long periods.
Runjaić is likely to stick with Udinese’s usual 3-5-2 formation, with Okoye behind a back three of Kristensen, Kabasele, and Bertola. Ehizibue and Zemura seem the most likely wing-backs, tasked with providing width, while Ekkelenkamp and Karlström will dictate the tempo in the center alongside Piotrowski. Up front, the prediction is: Zaniolo alongside Davis. The absences are more likely to influence the personnel selection than the system. Solet is still out, which suggests that Kabasele will act as the central organizer in this three-man defense, and Zanoli’s absence further limits the options on the right. Atta is listed with muscle fatigue, so Piotrowski could start to keep the midfield stable. If Udinese wants more presence in the penalty area, Buksa is the obvious alternative to Davis.
Atalanta – Udinese Calcio Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five league matches suggest close games. Udinese won 1-0 in November 2025, while the earlier match in 2025 ended 0-0. Atalanta had the upper hand at home in 2024, first with a 2-1 win and later with a 2-0 win, and the 2023 match in Udine ended 1-1. This means that Atalanta has the better record overall in this small sample, but Udinese has shown that they can also drag such a game into uncomfortable territory. The clearest pattern is the question of who has control of the chaos, as all five games remained under 3.5 goals, and the first halves usually started cautiously, with less than 1.5 goals scored before the break in four out of five cases. Atalanta has scored in each of the last three encounters, but Udinese has struggled to build on its lead after the break in this matchup, often forcing them into the role of the pursuer. This history suggests a close game rather than Atalanta’s recent results, although home pressure could still tip the game in their favor in the end.
