Four wins in a row against Milan – and once again Atalanta Bergamo faces the Rossoneri at the Gewiss Stadium. The most recent head-to-head matches have been particularly striking: often everything was still open at halftime, but Atalanta struck in the second half. While Milan is in third place in the title race with 17 points, Atalanta is in a mini-crisis: twelve points from eight games, many draws and only seventh place. Juric’s team creates plenty of chances but fails to convert them, as the coach made clear after the 1-1 draw against Cremonese. Milan seem more stable, but will be without key players such as Pulisic, Rabiot, and Loftus-Cheek. A close game with possible late twists is to be expected — form favors Milan, history favors Atalanta.
- Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
- Date and time: October 28, 2025, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 9)
Three betting tips for the match: Over 2.5 goals as the main tip, followed by Both Teams to Score (BTTS) and, as a speculative value bet, Double Chance X2. Milan has offensive quality—Leão recently scored twice against Fiorentina—and Atalanta creates many chances (Juric speaks of 20–25 per game), but suffers from inconsistent finishing. Injury-related absences in Atalanta’s defense (Scalvini, Kolasinac, Bakker) increase the likelihood of goals on both sides. BTTS odds of around 2.6 reflect a balanced market; X2 offers value given Milan’s personnel concerns and Atalanta’s strong home record against the Rossoneri.
Atalanta Form & Record Check
Atalanta is in a results crisis: four league games without a win and only one point ahead of Juventus in 7th place. Internationally, there was a goalless draw against Slavia Praha. The core problem is converting chances – four of the last five games ended in a draw and in around 80% of these encounters, fewer than 2.5 goals were scored. Lookman and Scamacca are not yet in top form after a poor preseason, injuries are limiting rotation, and Juric’s public criticism of goalkeeper Carnesecchi points to increasing pressure. Without improved efficiency and the return of key players, prolonged stagnation looms.
Ivan Juric is expected to field a 4-3-3 formation. Carnesecchi remains in goal despite public criticism. The defense consists of Bellanova (right), Zalewski (left), Djimsiti, and Hien in central defense; Scalvini, Kolasinac, and Bakker are out with injuries. Éderson, de Roon, and Pasalić are expected to provide stability in midfield. In attack, De Ketelaere will act as a link between the wingers Lookman and Scamacca, who, according to Juric, are still working on their fitness.
AC Milan form & record check
Milan travel with three wins and two draws from their last five league games, just one point behind AS Roma. The 2-2 draw against bottom-of-the-table Pisa was shaky: Leão scored early, Pisa turned the game around, and only a long-range shot in stoppage time secured the point. Previously, there was a 2-1 win against Fiorentina (Leão scored twice), a goalless draw at Juventus, and a 2-1 win against Napoli; this was followed by a 3-0 win against Lecce in the Coppa Italia. Milan’s defensive stability at halftime is striking (no goals conceded in four of five games). However, coach Allegri will still be without Pulisic (thigh), Rabiot (calf), Loftus-Cheek (muscle problems), Estupiñán, and Jashari.
Milan are likely to start with a back three of Tomori, Gabbia and Pavlović. Fofana and Modrić are expected to start in midfield, with Saelemaekers and Bartesaghi on the wings. Up front, Leão is expected to start after his two goals against Fiorentina, alongside Nkunku behind Gimenez. The midfield remains depleted: Rabiot is expected to be out until the end of November with a calf injury, Loftus-Cheek is out with muscle fatigue, and Pulisic is also missing as an important attacking player; Jashari and Estupiñán are also unavailable. Ricci could be an additional option for the bench.
Atalanta – AC Milan Head-to-head & statistics
Atalanta has won the last five matches against Milan, most recently four wins in a row. The last two encounters ended 1-0 in April and 2-1 in December. The pattern is striking: in all five games, the score was tied at halftime before Atalanta sealed the deal in the second half. Four of the five games ended with more than 1.5 goals. Milan have conceded at least one goal in each of their last four encounters and have scored only four goals in total. The Coppa Italia defeat in January 2024 (1-1 at halftime, 1-2 final score) confirms this picture; for Allegri, this means that the second half must be better organized in order to break the streak.
