Aston Villa has won all five previous encounters against Fulham, but this time the omens could hardly be more different. The hosts are still waiting for their first win of the season after five matchdays and are in 18th place in the table with only three points, while Fulham travel to Villa Park in eighth place with eight points and four wins from their last five games. Unai Emery’s team has scored only one goal in the league so far, a statistic that would be alarming even for relegation candidates. Despite this poor form, bookmakers see Villa as slight favorites, presumably because of their impressive head-to-head record, with the Villans always leading at halftime. Emery will continue to be without Amadou Onana and Youri Tielemans, while Morgan Rogers is under particular scrutiny after his poor performance against Bologna. Fulham have all their key players available, giving Marco Silva additional tactical options.
- Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham
- Date and time: 09/28/2025, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 6)
Aston Villa form & record check
Aston Villa’s form currently reads like a puzzle with too many missing pieces. With only three points from five league games and 18th place in the table, the Villans find themselves in an unfamiliar position, just one point separating them from their direct neighbors in the table, West Ham. The 1-1 draw at Sunderland was typical: Cash finally scored the first league goal of the season, but it was only another draw. That came after a goalless draw at Everton, where Martínez saved a point with some spectacular saves. The 3-0 home defeat to Crystal Palace still feels like a warning shot. The 1-0 win against Bologna in the Europa League showed a different side. McGinn’s early goal was a glimmer of hope, but Watkins’ missed penalty and a nervous final phase revealed that problems remain. Emery has experimented with six different attacking combinations in seven games, which underlines the lack of stability. Villa have yet to score in the first half and concentrate 38% of their attacks down the left flank. This one-sided approach makes their play predictable. Rogers is clearly struggling with his form, losing the ball 29 times against Bologna. With Onana and Tielemans also missing, key midfielders are absent, while new signings Elliott and Sancho still need time to settle in.
Unai Emery is likely to rely on his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation against Fulham, with the midfield remaining a cause for concern. With Onana (thigh injury) and Tielemans (unknown injury) missing, two key players are unavailable. Kamara and McGinn are therefore likely to form the double six. In attack, Rogers could start again despite his mixed performances. Emery has made it clear that he wants to play the 23-year-old through the difficult phase. Elliott is pushing for more playing time after his loan spell from Liverpool and could play behind Watkins, while Malen is expected to provide danger on the right.
Fulham form & record check
The Cottagers are in impressive form and are likely to travel to Birmingham with confidence. Four wins from their last five games speak for themselves, even if their only defeat came at Chelsea, who beat them 2-0. Fulham are currently winning almost all their games narrowly but effectively. The 3-1 defeat to Brentford a week ago was more of an exception, as one goal was enough to see them through against both Leeds (1-0) and Cambridge in the League Cup (1-0). Marco Silva seems to have set his team up to play solid defense. This defensive stability is also reflected in a striking statistical detail: In their last five games, Fulham have not conceded a goal in the second half. This speaks for their fitness and tactical discipline, but could also mean that their offense slows down a bit after the break. Only four of their last five games have seen more than 2.5 goals in total. Their eighth place in the table with eight points is in line with expectations, although they are level on points with Sunderland in seventh place. At the bottom, the gap to Manchester City is surprisingly small at just one point, which underlines the balanced nature of the league at this early stage of the season. In terms of personnel, Silva seems to have a full squad to choose from. Lukić leads the club’s internal caution statistics with three yellow cards, but is still a long way from a suspension. Emile Smith Rowe scored against Cambridge and is likely to become a regular starter following his move from London.
Marco Silva is likely to stick with his usual 4-2-3-1 formation in attack after it proved successful against Brentford. Lukić may exercise some caution after picking up three yellow cards, while Smith Rowe is a contender for a starting spot after his decisive goal in the Carabao Cup against Cambridge United. The defense around Diop and Cuenca should remain unchanged, as should the wings with Robinson and Castagne. In midfield, we expect the established duo of Reed and Cairney to form the basis. Up front, Wilson could continue his strong form this season, flanked by Smith Rowe and Iwobi, who recently impressed against Brentford. Muniz will likely occupy the center forward position.
H2H Aston Villa – Fulham Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record between these two teams could hardly be more one-sided. Aston Villa has won all five direct encounters in the last two years without losing a single game or even conceding a draw. Villa’s dominance at halftime is particularly striking. In the last three encounters, they were already leading after 45 minutes, which shows that they regularly put Fulham under pressure early on. The 1-0 win in May 2025 was the narrowest victory, while the 3-1 win in November 2023 was the most decisive. Fulham has not led at halftime or even been level in any of the last five encounters. This suggests that they struggle to keep up with Villa’s pace and intensity from the start. Even away from home, they have been unable to break this streak. Villa has scored in every first half and has never conceded a goal before the break, showing remarkable consistency in their play against this particular opponent, regardless of the venue.
The first tip of under 1.5 goals in the first half is based on Villa’s remarkable statistic: all five league halves have ended goalless. Fulham show a similar pattern with four out of five games under this mark. The absences of Onana and the uncertainty surrounding Tielemans reinforce this trend, as both players normally dictate the tempo of Villa’s build-up play. While the betting markets show a slight home favoritism at 2.3, the data clearly points to a quiet start to the game. The tip against “both teams to score” is strongly supported by the numbers: Villa has scored only one league goal from 45 attempts, while Fulham has kept a clean sheet in three of its last five games. Silva’s defensive discipline, especially in the second half, makes this option a solid bet despite the modest odds. The riskiest but also most lucrative bet is a Fulham win at 3.4. Four wins from five games against an opponent without a league win offer good value, especially as Iwobi and Smith Rowe create exactly the kind of quick transitions that could punish Villa’s unsorted defense.
