Key Facts
- Roma go into the game in fifth place with 43 points; with only two points separating them from Juventus and Como, three points could immediately change their European position.
- Despite losing 1-0 to Udinese and drawing 1-1 with Milan, Roma have often kept clean sheets in the first half recently; without Dybala, Dovbyk, and Koné, game management will be more important.
- Cagliari are coming off three league wins in a row, most recently a 4-0 victory over Verona with Mazzitelli and the in-form Kılıçsoy; Belotti is missing, and the defense is reorganizing itself after Luperto.
- In a direct comparison, Roma won three of the last five duels, but Cagliari is holding on to the recent 1-0 win; Cagliari remained scoreless before the break in all of these games.
- The bookmakers rate Roma’s home win at around 1.5; this is supported by five games without conceding a goal before the break and also speaks in favor of “Both teams to score: No.”
- Both teams often make their decisive moves after halftime, with Roma scoring after the break in 80% of their recent games according to the trend; Cagliari also scored in 80% of their second-half goals.
A 1-0 result from December 2025 still hangs in the air: Back then, Cagliari beat AS Roma – and it is precisely this memory that makes Monday evening at the Stadio Olimpico a useful yardstick for Gasperini’s team. Roma are fifth with 43 points, sandwiched between Juventus and Como, with only two points separating them from above and below. Cagliari are 12th in the table with 28 points, close behind Sassuolo and Torino, so momentum continues to count. The exciting questions revolve less around possession and more around how the game will unfold: the decisive factors will be Roma’s ability to win despite the absences in attack, the chance of a clean sheet given Roma’s recent control in the first half and Cagliari’s lack of De Rossi, and whether the second half will be livelier when patience turns into risk and space opens up.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Date and time: February 9, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 24)
The market is clearly leaning towards AS Roma, with a home win priced at around 1.5. Essentially, this is a bet on structure and control, and Roma’s recent pattern of conceding few goals before the break supports this, even after their 1-0 defeat at Udinese. This fits with “Both teams to score: No” for Roma, who are missing Dybala, Dovbyk, and Koné, which may shift the focus more towards game management. Meanwhile, Cagliari are traveling without Belotti and are still reorganizing defensively after Luperto’s departure, even though Mina is back in normal training. Interestingly, this caution opens up a third perspective: both teams have gotten into the habit of making their decisive moments after halftime, and at Cagliari, the in-form Kılıçsoy is attracting extra attention after a strong run of goals.
AS Roma Form & Record Check
Last week was a bit of a setback for AS Roma, with a 1-0 defeat at Udinese in Serie A, and it felt like a game in which control was not converted into a clear path to goal. Before that, they drew 1-1 with AC Milan in the league, which was more in line with expectations: solid and evenly matched, but once again without making a mark against a top opponent.
Across all competitions, however, their recent run suggests a team that is difficult to unsettle in the early stages, with Roma going into the break without conceding on several occasions recently. The problem is what comes next, as the injury list takes several solutions against a deep block out of the toolbox. Dybala is not expected back until mid-February and Dovbyk will be out even longer. This puts more responsibility on Pellegrini’s timing and on Malen, Soulé, and Zaragoza to deliver efficiency rather than mere volume.
Gasperini is likely to stick to his usual 3-4-2-1 formation, with Svilar behind a young back three of Ghilardi, Ndicka, and Ziolkowski.
Çelik and Angeliño are likely to start as wingbacks, giving the system width, while Cristante and El Aynaoui secure the center and keep the pressing balanced.
Injuries are shaping the likely XI: Mancini and Hermoso are still missing at the back, Koné is still out of action in midfield, and Dybala, Dovbyk, and Ferguson are out up front. This makes Malen the most obvious choice, with Soulé and Pellegrini moving inside to create something. Rensch, Wesley, Tsimikas, Pisilli, and Zaragoza are the main alternatives if adjustments need to be made.
Cagliari Form & Record Check
Cagliari comes off the back of a 4-0 win over Verona, and the performance had bite, with Mazzitelli and Kılıçsoy scoring before the game became a clear-cut affair. This result also followed league wins against Fiorentina and Juventus, so Pisacane’s team can travel without the usual inferiority complex, even if their overall position remains in the middle of the table.
Nevertheless, there are a few moving parts behind the confidence. Luperto has been sold, so the defensive pecking order will have to quickly rearrange itself around Mina, with options such as Dossena, Rodríguez, and Zé Pedro likely to shoulder more responsibility. In midfield, Deiola has only worked with the group partially, Folorunsho is still missing, and up front, Belotti’s long-term absence limits the experienced alternatives. Interestingly, the positive side is Kılıçsoy’s rise, which has even attracted a scout visit from Montella.
Cagliari are likely to start in their familiar 3-5-2 formation under Pisacane, with Caprile behind a back three of Zé Pedro, Mina, and Dossena. After Luperto’s departure, Mina should remain the organizer, while Zappa and Obert will likely act as aggressive wing-backs, spreading the field and feeding Gaetano between the lines. Adopo and Mazzitelli seem to be the most obvious duo in the center.
Up front, it will probably be Kılıçsoy alongside Esposito, and Kılıçsoy’s recent goal streak makes him a clear focal point for counterattacks. With Folorunsho missing and Felici and Belotti out long term, the bench options tend to favor Pavoletti or Borrelli when it comes to finishing. Deiola has only trained partially, so his minutes will probably have to be rationed.
AS Roma – Cagliari Head-to-head & statistics
The last five encounters have generally gone in AS Roma’s favor, with three wins, one draw, and one win for Cagliari, although it is the most recent result that Cagliari is clinging to. In December 2025, they won 1-0 at home, ending Roma’s four-game unbeaten streak in this fixture. That streak included a 1-0 away win for Roma in March 2025 and a 0-0 draw earlier in 2024.
What is striking about these games is how often one team ends up without scoring. The first halves in particular followed a clear pattern. Roma have not lost a first half in these recent encounters with Cagliari, and Cagliari have failed to score before the break in all of those games. This history will not decide Monday’s game, but it does suggest a match that will require patience before it really opens up, especially if Roma’s depleted attack focuses on control early on.
