FC Arsenal vs. Manchester City
Arsenal welcomes Manchester City with the confidence of two straight wins behind them, including a remarkable 5-1 victory last February. The top match of the fifth matchday pits two teams in different situations against each other: The Gunners are sitting in second place, just three points behind Liverpool, while the Citizens are surprisingly stuck in eighth place, already six points behind the top of the table. Interestingly, the betting market sees Arsenal as clear favorites for the home game, which seems understandable given their recent Champions League performance against Athletic Bilbao, where Martinelli and Trossard were decisive as substitutes. Manchester City showed progress in their 2-0 win over Napoli, but benefited from Giovanni Di Lorenzo’s early sending off. Both coaches have to juggle with significant absences: Arsenal are still missing Ødegaard due to shoulder problems, while Saka and Havertz are also out. City are concerned about Rodri, who complained of discomfort after his comeback against Napoli, and Guardiola will only decide on matchday whether his key player can start. The Emirates Stadium is likely to be buzzing when two of the league’s most ambitious teams meet in this intriguing fixture.
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
- Date and time: 21.09.2025, 17:30
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 5)
Arsenal Form & Record Check
Arsenal are currently second in the table and in impressive form. The Gunners have won four of their last five games, showing remarkable defensive strength, particularly with not a single goal conceded from open play in the first half. The 2-1 away win at Athletic Bilbao underlined Arsenal’s European ambitions. Although the game was tough going for long periods, the substitutions of Martinelli and Trossard showed the new depth in the squad. Both substitutes combined to score the decisive goals in the closing stages. However, personnel concerns cannot be ignored: Ødegaard is still out with shoulder problems, Saka and Havertz are injured, while Gabriel Jesus is suspended. Nevertheless, the summer signings already seem to be paying off. Gyökeres, Eze, and the other new arrivals have given the team the depth that makes the difference in crucial moments. Only three points separate Arsenal from league leaders Liverpool, which highlights the tightness of the top of the table and Arsenal’s ambitions, while they are level on points with Tottenham.
Arsenal are expected to line up in their usual 4-3-3 formation, although personnel concerns are likely to force Arteta to make some adjustments. The Spaniard continues to be without key regulars: Ødegaard is out with a shoulder injury, while Saka is still sidelined with a thigh injury. The midfield constellation will be interesting, with Zubimendi likely to play a central role alongside Rice and Merino. In attack, Gyökeres is likely to start up front, while Eze and Madueke will provide the necessary width. Saliba is fit again after his ankle injury and should stabilize the central defense.
Man City Form & Record Check
Manchester City arrives at the Emirates Stadium in a phase of contrasts. On the one hand, there was the commanding 2-0 triumph over Napoli on Thursday, which got the Champions League campaign off to an ideal start. On the other hand, there is a league record that falls short of the usual standards with six points from four games. The recent performance against Napoli revealed both strengths and tactical flexibility. Haaland converted his record goal in the Champions League with his 50th Champions League goal, while Doku impressed after coming on as a substitute and revitalized the offense. Guardiola cleverly exploited the numerical superiority after Di Lorenzo’s sending off. In the Premier League, the picture is different: the two home defeats against Tottenham (0-2) and the surprise loss in Brighton (1-2) raised questions about the defense. Only the clear 4-0 opening win in Wolverhampton and the recent 3-0 win against United in the derby showed the usual dominance. Guardiola is currently without some key regulars. Kovacic is out until early October after Achilles tendon surgery, while Marmoush is struggling with knee problems and Cherki is suffering from thigh problems. It is noteworthy that City have never drawn in their last five games and have always scored at least two goals.
Guardiola is likely to field his tried-and-tested 4-1-4-1 formation, although some key absences could influence the line-up. Marmoush will definitely be missing due to his knee injury, which limits the offensive options. Kovacic is also unavailable after his Achilles tendon surgery, while Cherki is out with thigh problems. The expected starting lineup could see Donnarumma in goal, who is still adapting to Guardiola’s ball-oriented style of play. In defense, Dias and Gvardiol are likely to form the center-back duo, flanked by Rico Lewis and Aké. Rodri seems set to be the sole defensive midfielder in front of the defense, while a mix of Bernardo Silva, Reijnders, Foden, and Doku should provide creativity in midfield. Haaland is expected to play as the lone striker. Guardiola could still make tactical changes at short notice, especially as personnel concerns in attack could well lead to surprises in the line-up and the coach is known for his flexible approach.
H2H Arsenal – Man City Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
Arsenal have not lost to Manchester City in their last five meetings. The Gunners have two wins to their name, including a surprisingly clear 5-1 victory in February 2025. City have failed to win against Arsenal during this period. The last three encounters show remarkable consistency at halftime: three times in a row, the score was tied after 45 minutes, before the games were mostly decided in the second half. This points to tactically balanced first halves. Manchester City have conceded at least one goal in four of the last five encounters, with Guardiola’s team only keeping a clean sheet in the goalless 0-0 draw in March 2024. Arsenal, on the other hand, have scored in four of the five games, underlining the Londoners’ offensive efficiency against City. A pattern emerges in terms of goals scored: three times, both teams scored less than 1.5 goals in the first half. The games were regularly decided after the break, with Arsenal showing stronger nerves and coming away as winners twice.
While the bookmakers rate Arsenal as clear favorites at odds of 1.9, our analysis reveals some interesting value opportunities. The draw is offered at 3.8, even though the last six league games between these teams have been remarkably close. The first half in particular promises value on “Under 1.5 goals,” as Arsenal have kept it quiet before the break in four of their last five league games, and City have also scored just two goals in the first 45 minutes of their last three games. The absence of Ødegaard and Saka could make Arteta’s start even more cautious, while Guardiola’s team traditionally needs time to get going. In terms of “both teams to score,” Haaland’s goal-scoring form and Arsenal’s home strength, despite absences, suggest goals at both ends, especially as City have only kept a clean sheet once. The draw at 3.8 seems generously priced considering that both managers know each other well and personnel concerns could alter the tactical balance.
