League leaders against defending champions at the Emirates, this 21st matchday of the Premier League already feels like a minor milestone in the race for the championship and the top four when Arsenal host Liverpool on Thursday evening. Arsenal lead the league, six points ahead of injury-plagued Manchester City, while Arne Slot’s Liverpool travel to fourth place, eight points behind Aston Villa and just three ahead of Chelsea, with bookmakers seeing Mikel Arteta’s side as clear favorites. The Londoners are in outstanding form, buoyed by their 3-2 comeback win at Bournemouth, where Rice scored twice after his knee problem and kept the expensive summer rebuild on track despite defensive injuries. Liverpool, who beat Arsenal 1-0 at Anfield in August, travel to London on the back of a 2-2 draw with Fulham and continue to look lacking in attacking punch in the league without Salah, the injured Isak and the recently sidelined Ekitike.
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
- Date and time: January 8, 2026, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 21)
Our betting tips clearly point towards Arsenal. Buoyed by Rice’s brace in Bournemouth and further bolstered by City’s defensive crisis, the league leaders justify betting on Arsenal to win, even if the market is relatively tight with odds of 1.6. Liverpool are currently grappling with identity issues but still have a reliable goal-scoring rate, while Arsenal will be without Calafiori and Mosquera. Against this backdrop, bets on both teams scoring and Arsenal leading at halftime seem more interesting in order to take advantage of Liverpool’s frequent slow starts than a bet on the away odds of 5.5.
Arsenal Form & Record Check
Arsenal go into this clash with Liverpool as clear leaders, with 48 points and a six-point lead over injury-plagued Manchester City. The recent 3-2 comeback win at Bournemouth after an early mistake underlined the mood at the club, with Rice returning from knee problems and scoring twice. It felt like one of those away days when title contenders tend to grind out results rather than shine.
The underlying statistics from the last five games in all competitions paint a clear picture. Arsenal score in every game, conceding more than one goal in four of those encounters, but they also concede in most games, with Bournemouth being the exception with three goals conceded. First halves tend to be tight, with games opening up after the break, indicating control over longer periods but also vulnerability when the tempo increases.
Arteta’s rotation seems to support this form rather than disrupt it. Hincapié and Lewis-Skelly are working inconspicuously on the left side of defense while Calafiori and Mosquera recover, and overall the injury list is relatively short. Further forward, Gyökeres is still getting used to the system, Arteta has used Merino in the center at times and is also relying on the returning Jesus and Havertz. One could almost say that the strongest version of this attack has yet to be seen.
Individually, the backbone is impressive. Rice, Saka, and Gabriel Magalhães are already appearing in early Ballon d’Or rankings and are visibly acting as leaders. With City six points behind and struggling with injury problems in defense, Arsenal’s current form opens up a real opportunity. The key now is to maintain this intensity rather than having to make another big leap.
Arsenal are expected to line up in their familiar 4-3-3, with Raya in goal behind a back four of Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, and Hincapié. Rice and Zubimendi should anchor the midfield, with Ødegaard operating in front of them, while Saka and Martinelli flank Gyökeres in attack. This is a predicted and as yet unconfirmed line-up, especially as Mosquera, Calafiori and Dowman remain sidelined through injury. Tactically, this system would once again rely on the partnership of Saliba and Gabriel, who would be expected to hold a relatively high line, with Timber and Hincapié providing width on the flanks.
Rice and Zubimendi would bring control in front of the defense and relieve Ødegaard so that he can link up with Saka and Martinelli. Gyökeres is likely to start up front, while Jesus and Havertz remain clear alternatives on the bench.
Liverpool Form & Record Check
Liverpool travels to the Emirates in somewhat peculiar league form. They are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games, with wins against Brighton, Tottenham, and Wolves, followed by a home draw against Leeds and a 2-2 draw at Fulham. This run has stabilized them in fourth place with 34 points, eight points behind Aston Villa in third and three points ahead of Chelsea in fifth.
The away game at Fulham summed up the contradictions in Arne Slot’s team. Liverpool fell behind after virtually the hosts’ first real chance, then improved after the break when Wirtz scored again and Gakpo seemed to have stolen the win with a goal in stoppage time, before Harrison Reed’s late 2-2 equalizer exposed their familiar vulnerability. Three days earlier, Leeds had left Anfield with a 0-0 draw, further highlighting how toothless Liverpool’s attacking play can be in the first half.
Overall, Slot’s nine-game unbeaten run looks less impressive when you consider the opposition. Draws against Sunderland, Leeds twice, and now Fulham suggest problems with control rather than pure resilience. Failing to score before halftime in 13 of 20 league games and four of the last five games, which initially develop cautiously and only open up later, speak for deliberately cautious starts.
However, this conservatism has been repeatedly punished in the closing stages. Slow reactions to set pieces and goals conceded in stoppage time against Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Leeds, and Fulham have already cost six league points, which is why Liverpool’s form appears much more fragile beneath the smooth run of results.
The context explains this approach to a certain extent. Slot has stabilized Liverpool defensively after a tough autumn run, but the price is a duller approach going forward, with build-up play often remaining slow and predictable. Key strikers are missing, Salah is at the Africa Cup of Nations, Isak and Ekitike are out injured, so Gravenberch and Wirtz are carrying much of the creativity, while Real Madrid are watching closely and there is internal tension over how quickly talents such as Ngumoha or Nyoni should really be trusted.
In our prediction, Liverpool remain in a 4-2-3-1 formation, although nothing has been confirmed yet, with Alisson in goal behind a back four of Bradley, Konaté, Van Dijk, and Kerkez. Gravenberch and Mac Allister should form the double six, while Szoboszlai, Wirtz, and Chiesa support Gakpo in attack, with Gakpo again playing centrally and Wirtz just behind him. This expected formation reflects the current absences, with Salah away on international duty, Isak still out with a broken leg, and Ekitike, their top scorer this season, only a doubt after his thigh problems. Endo and Bajcetic are also unavailable in midfield. Wirtz, who has been one of the more prominent attackers in recent league games, will once again link up with Gakpo as a tactical stopgap solution that Slot has resorted to several times this season.
Arsenal – Liverpool Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches, Liverpool has the slight edge with two wins, one win for Arsenal, and two draws. Overall, the Reds have scored nine goals, while Arsenal has scored eight. At Anfield, Liverpool recorded two wins and one draw during this period, while at the Emirates, Arsenal remained unbeaten with one win and one draw.
Chronologically, Arsenal’s last victory dates back to 2024, a 3-1 home win. This was followed by a Liverpool victory in a 2-1 friendly in 2024, then two consecutive 2-2 league games in 2024 and May 2025. The most recent meeting in August 2025 broke this pattern, with Liverpool winning 1-0 away in a closer game.
Liverpool scored in all five games, meaning Arsenal conceded a goal in each of these encounters. Arsenal themselves were successful in four of the five games, failing to score only in August 2025. Both teams scored in four of the games, which shows how often the games were open, with only one encounter ending with fewer than three goals.
The scoring rhythm is also striking. In four of the five games, at least two goals were scored before the break, which corresponds to a rate of 80% for both teams, and Liverpool scored in the first half in all but one game. After the break, the games were more controlled, with no game producing more than two goals in the second half.
In terms of results, Liverpool have a run of three unbeaten games in this fixture, first two draws, then the win in August 2025, while Arsenal have not won against the Reds since their 3-1 victory in 2024. One might think that both coaches are looking at this high-scoring history and trying to make the game a little more compact.
